Tournament Preview
We head to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open, and this is one of the more demanding setups we see on tour. This is not a week where players can just coast through with birdie runs. This course forces discipline, exposes mistakes, and rewards players who stay in control of their game from tee to green.
The layout plays as a par 72 around 7400 yards, but this course is defined by control and precision more than anything else. Players need to be sharp with their approach shots, especially from key scoring ranges, and they must be prepared to handle difficult scrambling situations when greens are missed. Over four rounds, this becomes a test of who can stay consistent, avoid big numbers, and take advantage of limited scoring opportunities when they present themselves.
Last year, Brian Harman won at 9 under, beating Ryan Gerard by three shots, but the way it unfolded tells the real story. Harman built a massive lead early, reaching 12 under through two rounds and putting himself in complete control heading into the weekend. From there, he shifted into a more conservative approach, playing to avoid mistakes instead of continuing to attack. That style can work when you have a cushion, but it is not a formula for long term success. When you start playing not to lose, you take yourself out of the mindset that got you there in the first place. The better approach is to stay aggressive, trust your game, and continue playing the same way that built the lead, because that is how you keep pressure on the field instead of inviting them back into the tournament.
This event consistently produces pressure down the stretch, and with players either preparing for Augusta or fighting for a spot in the field, the motivation level across the board creates a volatile environment that we can take advantage of in DFS.
Weekend Weather
The weekend is where things could really shift, and it is going to have a direct impact on how this course plays. Saturday is expected to bring steady rain and possible thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the area, with temperatures dropping into the upper 70s. That kind of moisture can soften the course, allowing approach shots to hold greens more easily and making scoring slightly more accessible compared to firm conditions.
However, the bigger factor this week is the wind. As that front moves through on Saturday, winds are expected to sit in the 10 to 15 mph range with gusts pushing up toward 25 mph, and more importantly, the direction could shift throughout the round. That creates inconsistency and makes club selection much more difficult.
Sunday brings a completely different feel. Temperatures drop into the mid 60s with lingering rain early, and while conditions may begin to dry out, the wind is still expected to be a factor at around 10 to 15 mph with gust potential reaching 25 to 30 mph, especially early in the day. Cooler air combined with wind typically makes the course play longer and more demanding.
Overall, while rain may soften things up and help players hold greens, the wind remains the equalizer. This sets up as a week where ball striking, trajectory control, and the ability to manage difficult conditions will play a major role in separating the field.
Metrics That Matter
This week is all about control, consistency, and limiting mistakes in tough conditions. This is not a pure scoring environment, so instead of chasing birdie upside, we are focusing on players who can stay steady and avoid giving strokes back to the field.
Strokes Gained Approach is the foundation. With wind expected to play a factor, distance control becomes more difficult, and the players who can consistently hit quality iron shots or miss in the right spots will separate over four rounds.
Driving Accuracy or Total Driving is the next piece. This is not a week where you need to prioritize pure distance. Playing from the fairway allows players to control trajectory and spin into these greens, which becomes even more important when the wind picks up.
Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling both carry significant weight. Conditions like this are going to lead to missed greens, and the players who can recover and limit damage will climb the leaderboard while others fall back. This is a week where saving par matters just as much as making birdies.
Putting also plays a key role here. Players who are comfortable on Bermuda greens and can convert opportunities while maintaining solid speed control will have an edge, especially when conditions become inconsistent.
When factoring in the wind, we are also looking for players who can control trajectory. Lower or more controlled launch profiles tend to hold up better in these conditions, as higher ball flights with excess spin are more vulnerable to movement and distance inconsistencies. Players who combine strong approach play, accurate driving, and the ability to manage ball flight will stand out in these tougher conditions.
What This Means
The overall player profile this week is very clear. We are prioritizing accurate ball strikers who can handle difficult conditions and stay consistent across four rounds. Around the green play becomes critical, so players who rate well in Scrambling and can convert on the greens gain a significant edge. As an added layer, incorporating Low Launch Angle as a custom metric can help identify players whose ball flights are better suited for windy conditions. Course history at TPC San Antonio is also worth factoring in, as certain players consistently perform well here due to how well their skill set matches the demands of this course.
Elite Range
Tommy Fleetwood 10500 on par
Did not play well here last year but did have a top 10 in 2024. Coming off an eighth place finish at The Players and has been gaining across the board in all key areas. Very solid overall profile and the price feels fair for this field. I will be right around the field on him.
Ludvig Aberg 10100 slightly overweight
Did not start the year strong with a withdrawal at The American Express and a missed cut at The Farmers, but has completely turned it around with two straight top five finishes. Gaining across the board in every category including off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting. Looked very strong at Bay Hill and followed it up at TPC Sawgrass. He is in form right now and I will be slightly above the field.
Russell Henley 9800 overweight
Finished fourth here in 2024 and has looked very strong recently with solid performances at Bay Hill and The Players. Accuracy off the tee and elite approach play set up perfectly for this course, especially with expected conditions. Distance is not a major factor this week, and his skill set checks all the boxes for what we are looking for. I will be overweight on Henley.
Si Woo Kim 9600 slightly underweight
This is a player I typically like to roster, but he just has not looked fully dialed in recently. Not playing terrible, but not standing out either. Lost strokes on approach last time out and needed a good putting week to stay afloat. Feels more like a tune up spot than a peak performance. I will have some exposure based on talent, but I will be slightly underweight.
Jordan Spieth 9500 on par
A player who clearly fits this course and has been playing solid golf, finishing just outside the top 10 in two of his last three starts. Form is trending in the right direction and this is a comfortable spot for him. You want exposure here, but I will be right around the field.
Sepp Straka 9300 very overweight
Has not played here in a couple of years, but current form is extremely strong with three solid performances in his last four starts. Very accurate off the tee and the approach game continues to be elite. Gained strokes across the board at The Players and the putter has been trending better than usual, gaining in five of his last seven starts. Coming off a strong tee to green performance and looks like a legitimate contender this week. I will be very overweight on Straka.
8900 to 7500 Range
Michael Thorbjornsen 8900 underweight
The putter has not been strong and he is coming off a missed cut here previously. Had a real opportunity last week at 12 under going into Sunday in easy scoring conditions and completely fell apart. Could have easily secured a top finish and did not capitalize. Young player and it raises some concern heading into this week. I will be underweight.
J.J. Spaun 8600 overweight
Won this event in 2022 and fits the exact type of profile we are looking for. Very strong approach player and highly accurate off the tee, which sets up well here. The putter can be volatile, but this is the type of player I want to be ahead of at low ownership. Likely coming in under owned, and I will be overweight.
Keith Mitchell 8500 on par
Playing solid golf and coming off a T14 last week. Has been a cut making machine and has shown he can produce top 15 finishes consistently. Course comfort and steady form make him viable, but I will stay around the field.
Ryo Hisatsune 8300 overweight
Finished T5 here last year and is playing very solid golf with multiple strong finishes recently. Accurate off the tee and fits the profile for this course. If the putter cooperates, he has real upside. I will be overweight.
Brian Harman 8200 slightly underweight
Defending champion who fits the course well with accuracy and a strong short game. Can get the putter going and clearly has comfort here. Ownership is likely to be elevated, so I will have exposure but come in slightly under the field.
Marco Penge 8100 seriously underweight
Profile does not fit this course. Relies more on distance and lacks the accuracy needed for this setup. Approach game is not strong enough for these conditions. I will be seriously underweight.
Thorbjorn Olesen 8000 slightly overweight
Course fit stands out and coming off a T14 with confidence building. Has shown success here and fits the horse for the course angle. Likely to carry some ownership, but I will be slightly overweight.
Jordan Smith 7900 overweight
Coming off a third place finish at the Valspar and profiles well with accuracy and greens in regulation. Has not played here, but skill set translates. If the putter shows up, he can outperform this price. I will be overweight.
Patrick Rodgers 7500 underweight
Has a fifth place finish here in 2023 but recent form has been poor with a couple rough weeks. Lacks accuracy off the tee and relies too much on the putter. Not a profile I am targeting this week, and I will be underweight.
Value Tier
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 7400 slightly overweight
Elite putter and very strong around the greens, which fits well for this setup. This is more of an outsider style play, banking on his short game carrying him if he can do enough tee to green to give himself opportunities. At this price, he has a path to a strong finish. I will be slightly overweight.
Andrew Novak 7300 slightly overweight
Not playing great overall, but showed some promising ball striking last week at the Valspar. The putter was extremely poor, well below his baseline, and if that regresses even halfway back to normal, there is upside here. This is a spot where he could bounce back, and I will be slightly overweight.
Tom Kim 7200 seriously underweight
The combination of his off the tee play and inconsistent putting does not set up well for this course. This is not a fit for his current profile, and I will have no exposure.
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 7100 underweight
Coming off a strong finish, but it feels driven by a spike putting week. Off the tee play is not strong and the approach game has been inconsistent. Recent finishes will likely drive ownership up at this price, making him an easy fade point. I will have some exposure, but overall be underweight.
Chad Ramey 7000 outsider dart play
Finished T5 here last year and has the ability to get hot with the putter. Approach play has been solid, gaining strokes in three of his last four starts, and overall has been consistent making cuts. If he finds a spike week off the tee to go along with it, he has a path to land in optimal lineups at low ownership.
Seamus Power 6900 outsider dart play
Solid overall player with a well rounded skill set. Has been hitting it well off the tee recently and brings a strong around the green game along with a putter that can heat up. Putting did not show up last week, but that is likely to regress back to form. With his tee to green ability and putting upside, he profiles as a low owned option with real upside.
Seonghyeon Kim 6900 outsider dart play
Has performed well in both appearances here and fits the profile with accuracy off the tee and a reliable putting stroke. If the irons show up, he has a clear path to a top 20 finish at this price. Strong course comfort and skill set make him an appealing low owned option.
Sami Valimaki 6600 outsider dart play
Finished T12 here last year and profiles as a solid course fit with accuracy off the tee and a dependable short game. Did not play well last week, but the approach numbers were encouraging. This is the type of spot where he can bounce back and outperform his price.
Kristoffer Ventura 6600 outsider dart play
Missed four straight cuts and was cut here last year, but there are signs of life with improved approach play last week. Strong off the tee and capable of getting hot with the putter. This is more of a feel play, but at this price he has the type of upside to sneak into a top finish if things click.
Lucas Glover 6500 outsider dart play
Accurate off the tee and has shown comfort on this course. Ownership will likely be there, but his profile still fits the conditions and gives him a path to outperform this price.
Sam Ryder 6500 outsider dart play
Volatile option, but has shown upside here with a T3 in the past. If the putter heats up and he is striking it well, he can outperform this price. Pure dart with upside.
Brandt Snedeker 6400 outsider dart play
Veteran presence who knows this course extremely well. Coming off a T18 last week and may have found something. If the putter gets going, there is a path to value at this price.
Lanto Griffin 6300 outsider dart play
Coming off a T7 last week and has shown comfort on this course. At this price, recent form and course fit make him a viable low owned option.
Chandler Phillips 6200 outsider dart play
Finished T18 here last year and fits the profile with accuracy off the tee and a solid putting stroke. If the irons cooperate, he has the ability to return strong value at a very low price.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Hey, meatballs… I bet you guys loved that fourth place finish last week at The Players for Bobby Mac. Yeah, Robert MacIntyre, but let’s be honest, Bobby Mac sounds more like a guy who should be pouring you a Guinness, not trying to win you a GPP. This is exactly the spot where people get sucked in. You see the result, you see the name, and you think you’re golden. Not this week. This week’s a different animal. We’re talking wind, tough conditions, and with The Masters right around the corner, who knows where the focus is at.
And let’s be real, those approach numbers are not holding up enough to pay off this price tag in these conditions. You need precision out here, and Frankie’s not seeing it. And this guy, he gets a little emotional. Couple raindrops hit him and he might start snapping clubs over his knee. That ain’t what I’m trusting in a grind it out week like this.
Frankie’s take is simple. At this price, you need a top 10 for it to matter, and it’s just not happening. So go ahead, chase last week if you want. After round two, you might find me at the bar… with Bobby Mac. Capisce?
Let’s get after it this week. Stay disciplined, build smart, and do not be afraid to get uncomfortable with your lineups. That is where the edge is. I’ll be looking to get a live show in Tuesday night for The Masters, so be on the lookout for that. Good luck to everybody this week and happy Easter.
Let’s go win a fucking GPP… because it only takes one.
