The PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the 2026 John Deere Classic, and this is one of those weeks where you better be ready to make birdies or get the hell out of the way. Deere Run is a par 71 that stretches to 7,327 yards, but this is not some brutal grind where guys are trying to hang on for dear life. This place has elevation changes, scoring chances, wedges, risk reward shots, and enough gettable holes that the right golfer can catch fire and absolutely light this thing up.
Last year, Brian Campbell got it done at 18 under, holding off Emiliano Grillo in a tournament that still demanded four days of real scoring. That is what makes Deere Run fun. You can have a good week and still get passed if you are not making enough birdies. This is not a place where T34 and “solid golf” gets anybody excited. DraftKings scoring matters, birdie streaks matter, and you better have guys who can actually go out and shoot 64 or 65 when the course gives them the chance.
The course itself has enough danger to keep things interesting, even if the winning score usually gets deep. Water is not everywhere, but it does come into play in spots, especially with the pond by the par 5 10th and the Rock River lurking around the short but dangerous 16th. The 14th is a drivable risk reward par 4, the 15th is one of the tougher holes on the back nine, and the 18th puts a premium on driving accuracy coming home. Weather could be part of the story too, with heat, humidity, and thunderstorms in the forecast. If storms soften the course, we could see even more scoring, but delays and tee time waves could also matter if one side of the draw gets smoother conditions.
The biggest thing this week is who is not here. No Scottie Scheffler, no Rory McIlroy, and no giant elephant in the room forcing every lineup decision to start with one overpriced monster at the top. That opens this slate up in a big way. You can build balanced, you can leave money on the table, you can take stands in the midrange, and you do not have to eliminate half the player pool just to jam in one guy. That is where these slates get fun. Edgy plays matter, uncomfortable clicks can win, and being willing to take a stand might be the difference between just playing the percentage game and actually giving yourself a shot to take something down.
Metrics That Matter
This is a birdie fest, but that does not mean we just blindly click every aggressive golfer and hope for the best. At TPC Deere Run, you need guys who can score, but you also need guys who can clean up the short ones, keep momentum, and avoid throwing away rounds with sloppy bogeys. When the winning score gets deep, every missed six footer feels bigger, every par save matters, and every wasted birdie look starts adding up fast.
The putting stats matter a lot more this week than they do at some other courses, and comfort on bentgrass greens is a big part of that. I am looking hard at Strokes Gained Putting, but I also care about the shorter ranges, especially putting from five to ten feet and putting from five to fifteen feet. Those are the putts that keep rounds alive. Those are the putts that turn a decent DraftKings round into a good one. If a guy is comfortable rolling it on bentgrass and can consistently clean up from inside ten feet, that is a real weapon this week. If a guy is giving himself chances all day but leaking strokes from inside ten feet, this is the kind of course where that can quietly bury him.
That is also why Bogey Avoidance matters more here than people might think. At a hard course, everyone is making bogeys. At Deere Run, bogeys hurt because the rest of the field is making birdies. You do not need six boring par machines, but you do need golfers who can keep the card clean enough to let the birdies actually matter. Give me guys who can make six or seven birdies in a round, but also have enough short game, putting, and patience to avoid turning a 65 into a 69 with two stupid mistakes.
From a ball striking side, I still want Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Strokes Gained Approach, and proximity from the scoring ranges, especially the wedge and short iron buckets. A lot of players are going to have wedges in their hands this week, so I want guys who can actually take advantage of those looks. I am also paying attention to scoring average, birdie average, Strokes Gained Total, and even some of the deeper ball flight stuff like launch angle when it helps explain who is controlling their irons and giving themselves real birdie chances.
The simple version is this: I want golfers who can score without being reckless. I want putters who can cash in from inside fifteen feet. I want enough approach play to create real chances. I want enough around the green play to survive the misses. And I want guys who understand that in a tournament like this, par is not good enough for four straight days. You have to make birdies, avoid the cheap bogeys, and keep pressure on the leaderboard.
Pitfalls & DFS Mistakes
The first mistake this week is falling in love with the comfortable names just because they are the comfortable names. I am not saying Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley, or Rickie Fowler cannot have a good week. They are PGA Tour players, this course is gettable, and any one of these guys can wake up and make a run. But I do think it is a mistake to just start clicking names because they feel familiar. This is not a major championship field. This is not a loaded signature event. This is a week where the name on the scorecard might not matter as much as who is actually ready to go out and make birdies for four straight days.
That is what makes this tournament dangerous. There are a lot of young bucks and hungry players in this field who know exactly what is in front of them. They are not trying to beat Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and ten other killers at the top of the board. They are looking at a softer field, a birdie course, and a real opportunity to make a name for themselves. That matters. This is the kind of setup where aggressive players can come in with nothing to lose and start firing at pins while the field is still trying to decide which familiar name feels safe.
Another mistake is underrating putting. You do not need to be the best ball striker in the world to contend here, but you better be able to roll it. These bentgrass greens are important, and players who are comfortable making putts from five to ten feet, five to fifteen feet, and keeping rounds alive with the flatstick have a real edge. At a course like this, missed short putts hurt twice as much because everyone else is making birdies. A guy can hit it fine all week, but if he is leaking strokes on the greens, he can get passed fast.
Course history matters here too. I am not saying to blindly play every guy who has had a good finish at Deere Run, but this is one of those tracks where certain players clearly see it well. Some guys know how to attack this place. Some guys know where to miss. Some guys are comfortable with the sightlines, the greens, and the scoring pace. When a player has shown over and over that he can go low here, I am not just brushing that off because another player looks a little better in a model.
The other big mistake is playing too safe. This is not the week to build six guys who all feel like they can shoot 69 or 70 and make the cut. That might cash in some tournaments, but it is probably not winning anything meaningful. You need players who can shoot in the low 60s. You need birdie streaks. You need ceiling. A T38 with four boring rounds is not going to do much when the winning score is pushing deep under par and DraftKings points are flying all over the place.
Lineup construction is where this slate gets really fun. Do not be afraid to leave money on the table. Do not feel forced to start at the very top just because those names are sitting there. You can build balanced, you can start in the middle, you can work from the bottom up, and you can build around the players you actually believe in instead of just following salary like it is telling you the truth. This is a week to take stands, get overweight on the right guys, and let your outsider plays work around them. The mistake is spreading yourself too thin and ending up with a bunch of lineups that do not actually say anything.
Upper Tier
Chris Gotterup, $10,700, On Par With The Field
Chris Gotterup comes in at $10,700, and there is no pretending he cannot win this golf tournament. He is playing solid golf, the approach game has looked good, the putter has been gaining, and he has already shown he can play this place with a T4 a few years back and a T21 last year. The concern is not whether he is a good play. The concern is ownership. If he is going to be one of the highest owned golfers on the slate, I do not think he is some plug and play must have in every lineup. I will have exposure because he has real win equity, but I am probably going to land around the field instead of making him one of my biggest stands.
Ben Griffin, $10,500, Slightly Overweight
Ben Griffin is $10,500, and I actually like him a little more than Gotterup from a stance perspective. He has a T5 here, missed the cut last year, and the course history is a little bit mixed, but the current form is the selling point. He has been hitting it really well, the short game is strong, the putter can get hot, and the approach game looks like it has finally turned a corner after a rough stretch. When a guy with his putting ability starts gaining with the irons, that gets my attention on a course like this. I expect him to be popular, but I will probably be a little over the field.
Keith Mitchell, $10,000, Slightly Underweight
Keith Mitchell at $10,000 is playing good golf, and I am not going to sit here and act like he is a bad play. He has two top fives in his last five starts, he is strong off the tee, and he can absolutely contend in this field. The problem for me is that his biggest strength is not quite as important at Deere Run as it would be at some other courses. I still want exposure, because good golf is good golf, but I do not think this is a perfect course fit spot where I need to be jamming him in. I will probably be slightly underweight, but not completely out.
Keegan Bradley, $9,700, Underweight
Keegan Bradley is $9,700, and this is where I am going to take a little bit of a stand. I respect Keegan, and in this field he is obviously one of the better names on the board, but I do not love the fit enough to chase heavy ownership. He does not have course history here, the putter has been shaky recently, and the driver has not been as clean as we would like. Could he play solid golf and end up in the mix? Absolutely. But at this ownership and price, I am going to be underweight and let other people pay for the comfort.
Jackson Koivun, $9,400, Slightly Overweight
Jackson Koivun is $9,400, and this is one of the more interesting clicks on the entire slate. He finished 11th here last year, and every time he shows up against real PGA Tour competition, he looks like he belongs. The kid can putt, the all around game is solid, and there is legitimate young gun upside in a field that does not have the usual monsters at the top. The price is uncomfortable, and that is part of what makes him interesting. I will probably be slightly overweight because the talent is real and this is exactly the kind of tournament where he can announce himself even louder.
Jordan Spieth, $9,200, Greatly Underweight
Jordan Spieth is $9,200, and I am going to be extremely underweight. I know it is Jordan Spieth, and I know he can randomly wake up and make me look stupid, but I am not betting on a full game turnaround in one week. He has not looked good with the putter, the irons have not looked good, the driver has not looked good, and the overall game just has not been sharp. This feels like a name value trap more than a real DFS target. If he beats me, he beats me, but I am not building my week around hoping Spieth suddenly finds everything.
Eric Cole, $9,100, Overweight
Eric Cole is $9,100, and this is one of my favorite spots in the entire upper tier. A lot of people are going to look at the missed cut at the RBC and the fade down the stretch at Travelers and act like something is wrong, but I do not see it that way. This course fits him beautifully. He is a great putter, excellent around the green, good enough on approach, and we do not have to worry about the driver as much here as we have at some other recent courses. He was T7 here two years ago, he can get nuclear with the flatstick, and I think this is a spot where he can go out and make a ton of birdies. I like him for showdown, I like him for full week GPPs, and I am very interested in being overweight.
Upper Tier Targets
Chris Gotterup, $10,700, On Par With The Field
Chris Gotterup comes in at $10,700, and there is no pretending he cannot win this golf tournament. He is playing solid golf, the approach game has looked good, the putter has been gaining, and he has already shown he can play this place with a T4 a few years back and a T21 last year. The concern is not whether he is a good play. The concern is ownership. If he is going to be one of the highest owned golfers on the slate, I do not think he is some plug and play must have in every lineup. I will have exposure because he has real win equity, but I am probably going to land around the field instead of making him one of my biggest stands.
Ben Griffin, $10,500, Slightly Overweight
Ben Griffin is $10,500, and I actually like him a little more than Gotterup from a stance perspective. He has a T5 here, missed the cut last year, and the course history is a little bit mixed, but the current form is the selling point. He has been hitting it really well, the short game is strong, the putter can get hot, and the approach game looks like it has finally turned a corner after a rough stretch. When a guy with his putting ability starts gaining with the irons, that gets my attention on a course like this. I expect him to be popular, but I will probably be a little over the field.
Keith Mitchell, $10,000, Slightly Underweight
Keith Mitchell at $10,000 is playing good golf, and I am not going to sit here and act like he is a bad play. He has two top fives in his last five starts, he is strong off the tee, and he can absolutely contend in this field. The problem for me is that his biggest strength is not quite as important at Deere Run as it would be at some other courses. I still want exposure, because good golf is good golf, but I do not think this is a perfect course fit spot where I need to be jamming him in. I will probably be slightly underweight, but not completely out.
Keegan Bradley, $9,700, Underweight
Keegan Bradley is $9,700, and this is where I am going to take a little bit of a stand. I respect Keegan, and in this field he is obviously one of the better names on the board, but I do not love the fit enough to chase heavy ownership. He does not have course history here, the putter has been shaky recently, and the driver has not been as clean as we would like. Could he play solid golf and end up in the mix? Absolutely. But at this ownership and price, I am going to be underweight and let other people pay for the comfort.
Jackson Koivun, $9,400, Slightly Overweight
Jackson Koivun is $9,400, and this is one of the more interesting clicks on the entire slate. He finished 11th here last year, and every time he shows up against real PGA Tour competition, he looks like he belongs. The kid can putt, the all around game is solid, and there is legitimate young gun upside in a field that does not have the usual monsters at the top. The price is uncomfortable, and that is part of what makes him interesting. I will probably be slightly overweight because the talent is real and this is exactly the kind of tournament where he can announce himself even louder.
Jordan Spieth, $9,200, Greatly Underweight
Jordan Spieth is $9,200, and I am going to be extremely underweight. I know it is Jordan Spieth, and I know he can randomly wake up and make me look stupid, but I am not betting on a full game turnaround in one week. He has not looked good with the putter, the irons have not looked good, the driver has not looked good, and the overall game just has not been sharp. This feels like a name value trap more than a real DFS target. If he beats me, he beats me, but I am not building my week around hoping Spieth suddenly finds everything.
Eric Cole, $9,100, Overweight
Eric Cole is $9,100, and this is one of my favorite spots in the entire upper tier. A lot of people are going to look at the missed cut at the RBC and the fade down the stretch at Travelers and act like something is wrong, but I do not see it that way. This course fits him beautifully. He is a great putter, excellent around the green, good enough on approach, and we do not have to worry about the driver as much here as we have at some other recent courses. He was T7 here two years ago, he can get nuclear with the flatstick, and I think this is a spot where he can go out and make a ton of birdies. I like him for showdown, I like him for full week GPPs, and I am very interested in being overweight
Midrange Targets
Pierceson Coody, $8,800, Overweight
Pierceson Coody is one of my favorite tournament plays in this range. I love the birdie upside, I love the aggression, and I love the fact that he can go out and shoot the kind of low round you need at Deere Run. The ball striking has been a little shaky recently, and the irons have not been perfect, but I liked what I saw last week at the U.S. Open. It felt like he started to dial things back in, and now he gets a much softer field on a course where scoring is going to matter. At $8,800, I am willing to buy the upside and be overweight.
Denny McCarthy, $8,200, Overweight
Denny McCarthy is a smash play for me this week. He is coming off a really nice showing at the Travelers, he has been playing solid golf, and more importantly, he absolutely loves this place. Four straight finishes of T11 or better at Deere Run is not something I am just brushing aside. He is great with the putter, he is comfortable on these greens, and this is exactly the type of course where his strengths can show up in a big way. This is not a spot where I am trying to get weird just to get weird.
Davis Thompson, $8,100, Underweight
Davis Thompson has to be respected because he has already won this tournament and backed it up with a solid finish here last year. He clearly likes the course, and I will still have some exposure because course history like that is real. But I do not like all the red I am seeing in the recent form. Four of the last five starts have not shown much green, and he just does not look like he is fully on his game right now. I am not going to completely fade a past winner at Deere Run, but I will be under the field and take my chances that the course history does not fully carry him this week.
Rico Hoey, $7,600, Overweight
Rico Hoey is one of those gut feel plays that makes sense to me for this tournament. He was playing pretty well before the Canadian, and even though that week did not go great, he has shown enough here with two solid finishes at Deere Run. He is streaky with the putter and streaky with the approach game, but that is also what makes him interesting in GPPs. If he catches the right week, this is the kind of course where he can mix it up and contend. At $7,600, I like taking the shot.
Blades Brown, $7,600, Overweight
Blades Brown is another young upside play I am very interested in. He has a complete package, and when you look inside the metrics, there is a lot of green. The approach play was not great last week, but the tee to green profile has shown real spike ability, including a week recently where he gained a ton across the board. If he gives himself enough looks and the putter shows up, he can absolutely score here. In a weak field with a birdie course, I want access to that kind of young talent and upside.
Jackson Suber, $7,500, Overweight
Jackson Suber missed the cut here last year, but I am not letting that scare me off completely. This is more of a gut shot play, but I like the profile and I like the way he has been playing. The putter has not always been a major strength, but he has gained with it in back to back starts, and that matters on a week like this. He also flashed huge tee to green upside at the Canadian, and if the irons cooperate even a little bit, he has the kind of game that can pop in a weaker field. At low ownership, I am interested.
Beau Hossler, $7,300, Slightly Overweight
Beau Hossler is not a perfect play, but he is a very playable one at $7,300. He finished 11th here last year, and when he gets the putter going, he can absolutely hang around on a course like this. This is not a ball striking bet as much as it is a scoring and putting bet. If he catches fire on these greens, he can pay off this price in a hurry. I will have exposure and probably be slightly over the field.
Emiliano Grillo, $7,300, Overweight
Emiliano Grillo is hard to ignore at this price. Two second place finishes at Deere Run tells us he clearly sees this course well, and he is playing solid enough right now to go right back into the pool. I am not overthinking this one. Some guys just fit certain courses, and Grillo has proven more than once that this place fits his eye. At $7,300, I am willing to roll with the course history and hope he gives us another strong week.
DFS Outsider Plays
Carson Young, $7,200, Overweight
Carson Young is one of my favorite outsider plays on the slate. He has finished T5 here in each of the last two years, and that tells me he clearly sees this place well. The putter has been absolutely nuclear recently, and if the approach game is even mediocre, he can contend here. He has been playing well enough coming in, even if it has not all been in loaded PGA Tour fields, and this is the kind of course where a hot putter and real course comfort can go a long way. At $7,200, I think he has legitimate top 10 upside and maybe even more if the flatstick stays hot.
Keita Nakajima, $7,200, Slightly Overweight
Keita Nakajima does not have course history here, but I like the combination he brings. He has been putting well, the approach game has been sharp, and that is a good formula for Deere Run. This is not a place where I need every player to have a perfect profile. If a guy is hitting his irons and rolling it well, he has my attention. At $7,200, he is a very playable DFS outsider piece.
Austin Eckroat, $7,100, Overweight
Austin Eckroat is exactly the type of player I want to take shots on in this range. He finished T11 here last year, and the course fit makes sense. He can be solid on approach, he can putt well enough, and he has the kind of balanced game that can take advantage of a birdie course without needing one part of his game to carry everything. At $7,100, I think he is underpriced for the upside he brings in this field. He will definitely be in my pool.
A.J. Ewart, $7,100, Overweight
A.J. Ewart has no course history here, but I do not care. The putter is excellent, and that matters a ton this week. More importantly, he has gained on approach in back to back starts, so this is not just a blind putting dart. If the ball striking continues to trend in the right direction and he keeps rolling it the way he can, I think he has a real shot to get inside the top 10. This is exactly the kind of uncomfortable click that can pay off in a weak field birdie fest.
Erik van Rooyen, $6,800, Overweight
Erik van Rooyen is interesting at $6,800 because we know how hot he can get with the putter. He has played well in two of his last three starts, and this is the kind of price range where I am willing to chase volatility if the upside is real. He is not safe, and I am not pretending he is. But at this course, in this field, a player who can catch fire on the greens and stack birdies absolutely belongs in the conversation. I will have exposure.
Ben Silverman, $6,600, Small Exposure
Ben Silverman fits the same type of outsider mold. The guy can go completely nuclear with the putter, and he is running a hot flatstick right now. The interesting part is that his irons can pop too, so if he combines the approach play with the putting, he can surprise some people here. We saw the type of scoring upside he can flash at the Byron Nelson, and this is another birdie course where that kind of profile can matter. I am not going overboard, but at $6,600, I will have some exposure.
Jimmy Stanger, $6,600, Small Exposure
Jimmy Stanger is a dark play, but I can see the path. He can get hot with the putter, and when he does, he can pop even if the approach game is not perfect. That is the scary part and the appealing part at the same time. If the irons hold up even a little bit and the putter goes nuclear, he can pay off this salary in a hurry. I am not going crazy here, but I will have a little bit of exposure because this is the kind of cheap, uncomfortable play that can open up builds and separate lineups.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Keegan Bradley, $9,700, Frankie’s Fade
Hey meatballs, Frankie respects Keegan Bradley. The guy has been around, he has won big tournaments, and he looks like he is one bad tee shot away from chewing through the grip on his putter. But this week, Frankie is not paying almost ten thousand dollars for the Ryder Cup clipboard energy. This is the John Deere Classic, not a board meeting. I need birdies, I need hot putters, I need young bucks firing at pins like they got rent due Monday morning.
Keegan can absolutely play solid golf here. That is not the argument. The problem is that solid golf might not be enough. At Deere Run, a couple 69s and a nice little handshake on Sunday does not win somebody a GPP. I need guys who can go shoot 63, 65, 64 and make DraftKings sweat. Keegan feels like the kind of name people click because it makes them feel safe, and Frankie does not like paying for safe when first place pays different.
So this week, Frankie is fading the familiar name. Let everybody else pay for the veteran stare, the old school grind, and the “he is one of the best players in the field” speech. Frankie wants birdies. Frankie wants upside. Frankie wants uncomfortable clicks. Keegan, why don’t you sit back and let the young bucks have the spotlight this week, capisce?
Final Thoughts
Bro, this is a birdie fest. This is not a week where I want to sit around clicking safe names and hoping everybody shoots 69 four days in a row. I want energy. I want upside. I want young guns, hungry players, and guys who know this is a real chance to go out, make birdies, and prove they belong. There is no Scottie Scheffler sitting at the top of the board making every lineup decision feel the same. This slate is wide open, and that is exactly what makes it fun.
At TPC Deere Run, we are looking for guys who can score. I want players who have shown they can play well here, guys who are comfortable on these bentgrass greens, and golfers who can get hot with the putter while still giving themselves enough real birdie looks. This is not a week to just chase ball striking with no flatstick, and it is not a week to play putters who cannot keep the ball in front of them. You need the full recipe. Make birdies, avoid the cheap bogeys, and do not let one stupid mistake ruin a round while everyone else is stacking circles.
Lineup construction matters this week. You can leave salary on the table. You can build balanced. You can start in the middle. You can make your stands on the guys you really believe in and then get different around them. That is the whole point. Do not spread yourself so thin that none of your lineups actually say anything. Find the players who fit the course, find the spots where the field is too comfortable, and take your swings.
Let’s build different, play aggressive, and take down a motherfucking GPP.
It only takes one
