If you are looking for another birdie fest where players fire at every flag and race to 25 under par, this is not the tournament for you. The PGA Tour heads to Muirfield Village Golf Club this week for the Memorial Tournament, and outside of the major championships, you would be hard pressed to find a more demanding test of golf anywhere on the schedule.
Designed by Jack Nicklaus, Muirfield Village Golf Club stretches more than 7,500 yards and demands excellence from tee to green. The rough is thick, the greens are difficult to hit, and every missed fairway creates a chain reaction of problems. Miss the short grass and approach shots become longer. Miss the green and scrambling suddenly becomes a necessity. One poor swing can quickly turn into a bogey, and one bogey can quickly turn into a round that gets away from you.
That is what makes this place special. This course does not reward one dimensional golfers. It rewards complete players. The bombers still need accuracy. The iron specialists still need touch around the greens. The best putters in the field still have to survive one of the toughest ball striking tests on the PGA Tour. Four par fives provide scoring opportunities, but players must take advantage of them because birdies can be difficult to find everywhere else.
The list of recent winners tells the story. Scottie Scheffler has won this event in back to back seasons, while big names like Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, and Jon Rahm have also lifted the trophy in recent years. Those are not surprise winners. Those are some of the biggest names in professional golf bringing complete games to one of the toughest venues on the PGA Tour. This course has a way of exposing weaknesses and rewarding the best players in the field.
Now Scottie Scheffler returns looking to accomplish something remarkable. After winning the Memorial in back to back seasons, the world number one arrives at Muirfield Village Golf Club chasing a third consecutive title. Standing in his way is another loaded Signature Event field filled with some of the best players on the planet. With a $20 million purse on the line and $4 million going to the winner, there is plenty of motivation beyond adding another trophy to the collection.
Unlike most Signature Events, however, everyone is not guaranteed four rounds. The Memorial remains one of the few Signature Events that still features a cut, with the top 50 players and ties, plus anyone within ten shots of the lead after 36 holes advancing to the weekend. In a field of just 72 players, there will be nowhere to hide. One bad round can quickly turn a championship opportunity into an early trip home.
For DFS players, this is one of the most fascinating tournaments of the season. Ball striking matters. Tee to green play matters. Scrambling matters. Par five scoring matters. Most importantly, mistakes matter. This is not a tournament where players can rely on a hot putter to save them. They have to earn every birdie and fight for every par. That is exactly what makes the Memorial one of the best weeks of the year.
Colonial Recap
Last week at Colonial Country Club, Russell Henley outlasted Eric Cole in a playoff to capture the Charles Schwab Challenge title. It was another reminder that precision, patience, and strong ball striking can still win on the PGA Tour, even in an era where distance often dominates the headlines.
From a DFS perspective, it was a solid week for the Outsiders. Both Russell Henley and Eric Cole were featured as overweight plays heading into the tournament, giving us exposure to the two golfers who ultimately battled for the trophy on Sunday afternoon. While the winning lineup combination proved elusive, having both finalists highlighted in the player pool made for a profitable and encouraging week.
Looking back, the formula was fairly simple. Henley leaned on elite accuracy, quality iron play, and his ability to avoid costly mistakes. Cole continued his strong run of form and nearly completed the job himself before falling short in the playoff. Both players demonstrated something we will be looking for again this week at Muirfield Village Golf Club. They kept the ball in play, hit quality approach shots, and consistently gave themselves opportunities while avoiding the big mistakes that can derail a round.
Now the focus shifts from the tight fairways and strategic demands of Colonial Country Club to one of the toughest tests on the PGA Tour. The challenge gets bigger, the field gets stronger, and the margin for error gets even smaller as we head to the Memorial Tournament.
Metrics That Matter
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
If there is one statistic that best captures what it takes to succeed at Muirfield Village Golf Club, this is it. Tee to green play combines driving, approach play, and performance around the greens into one complete picture of a golfer’s overall ball striking ability. With thick rough, demanding approach shots, and difficult greens to hit in regulation, players who consistently gain strokes from tee to green will have a significant advantage this week.
Total Driving
Distance is important at Muirfield Village Golf Club, but accuracy is equally critical. Bombing drives into the rough may work at some venues, but this course punishes players who consistently miss fairways. Total Driving combines length and accuracy, making it one of the best indicators of who can position themselves for success and avoid the difficult recovery shots that lead to bogeys.
Strokes Gained Around the Green
Even the best ball strikers in the world are going to miss greens at the Memorial. The rough surrounding these greens can be punishing, and players who can chip, pitch, and recover from difficult positions will save valuable pars throughout the week. A strong around the green game often becomes the difference between surviving a bad hole and watching a round unravel.
Bogey Avoidance
Many PGA Tour events are won by making birdies. The Memorial is often won by limiting mistakes. With scoring conditions expected to be difficult and trouble lurking throughout the golf course, golfers who consistently avoid bogeys can slowly separate themselves from the field over four rounds.
Scrambling
Scrambling goes hand in hand with success at Muirfield Village Golf Club. When players miss greens, their ability to get up and down becomes critical. The golfers who can consistently save par after a missed green will keep momentum on their side and avoid the damaging mistakes that can quickly ruin a tournament.
Par 5 Scoring
The four par fives represent some of the best scoring opportunities on the golf course. Birdies and occasional eagles are available, but players must take advantage because quality scoring chances are much harder to find elsewhere. Golfers who dominate the par fives often find themselves climbing the leaderboard by the end of the week.
One Putt Percentage
While this is primarily a ball striking venue, putting still matters when opportunities present themselves. Players who can consistently convert par saves after missed greens and capitalize on birdie chances inside makeable range can gain valuable ground on the field. On a difficult golf course where every stroke matters, one putts can be the difference between contending on Sunday and heading home frustrated.
The Scottie Scheffler Conundrum
First things first, credit where credit is due. Whoever handles pricing at DraftKings at least showed a little bit of mercy this week by keeping Scottie Scheffler under the $14,000 mark. That said, I am once again asking a very simple question. Why are we even allowing golfers to be priced this high in the first place?
Personally, I think there should be a hard cap at $13,000. Maybe even $12,500. I understand that Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer in the world. I understand that he has won this tournament in back to back seasons. I understand that sportsbooks have him as a massive favorite and for good reason. None of that changes the fact that pricing a golfer at $13,500 creates a bottleneck that makes lineup construction less enjoyable and, quite frankly, less interesting.
In a field of just 72 golfers, every lineup decision already carries more weight than usual. When one golfer consumes such a massive percentage of the salary cap, it pushes everyone toward similar roster builds. Suddenly the player pool shrinks. Ownership condenses. The number of viable lineup combinations decreases. Instead of rewarding creativity, the slate starts steering everyone toward the same handful of constructions.
The funny thing is that lowering Scottie Scheffler’s salary would not necessarily make him a worse DFS play. In fact, it would likely make the slate more competitive. A $12,500 Scheffler would attract massive ownership, but that creates opportunities for everyone else. If he goes out and dominates, the people who played him are rewarded. If he stumbles, the people who faded him suddenly have a path to separate from a huge portion of the field. That feels like a healthier game environment than forcing players into uncomfortable builds simply because one golfer is priced in another zip code.
Of course, all of this leads to the question that will define the slate. Do you pay the premium and trust the best golfer in the world at a course where he has won two straight titles, or do you take the balanced approach and hope that spreading salary across multiple elite golfers creates a higher ceiling roster? That is the puzzle DraftKings has handed us this week. There is no denying that Scottie Scheffler is the most likely golfer to win the tournament. The challenge is determining whether he can score enough fantasy points to justify a salary that requires sacrifices everywhere else. As frustrating as the pricing may be, that decision will likely determine who is holding a winning lineup on Sunday evening.
Scottie Scheffler $13,500 Slightly Underweight
You know the deal. Scottie Scheffler has an excellent chance of winning this tournament and finding his way into the optimal lineup. Ownership could easily push past 40 percent in a small field with plenty of value available and a salary that is at least somewhat more manageable than some of his recent price tags. With that being said, I still want exposure, but I will likely come in slightly under the field, targeting somewhere in the 30 to 35 percent range while looking for leverage elsewhere in my builds.
Matt Fitzpatrick $9,600 Overweight
This feels like a great spot for Matt Fitzpatrick. His all around game fits Muirfield Village Golf Club extremely well, as he brings strong tee to green play, an excellent short game, and the ability to grind through difficult scoring conditions. While he has cooled off a bit after a strong stretch earlier in the season, he still showed flashes at the PGA Championship and now comes into a course that should reward his strengths. With the combination of course fit, talent, and upside, I am happy to come in overweight on Fitzpatrick this week.
Si Woo Kim $9,400 Overweight
I am going to be very overweight on Si Woo Kim this week. He enters the Memorial playing some of the best golf of his career, coming off a runner up finish and posting three top five finishes in his last five starts. The course history is encouraging as well, with multiple strong finishes at Muirfield Village Golf Club, including a top five and a top 10. His accuracy, consistency, and well rounded game make him an excellent fit for the demands of this golf course, and it would not surprise me one bit to see Kim contending on Sunday afternoon with a legitimate chance to lift the trophy.
Cameron Young $10,300 Underweight
This is more of a roster construction decision than a knock on Cameron Young. He has had an outstanding season and certainly possesses the talent to contend on any golf course, but his history at Muirfield Village Golf Club has been somewhat underwhelming compared to other players in this range. He has also cooled off a bit over the last few starts after a red hot stretch earlier in the year. I will still have exposure because the upside is undeniable, but I prefer several other options around his salary, which leaves me slightly underweight on Young this week.
Alex Smalley $8,000 Overweight
I am planting my flag on Alex Smalley this week. Yes, he has missed the cut in both of his previous appearances at Muirfield Village Golf Club, but I simply do not care. The version of Smalley we are seeing right now is playing some of the best golf in this field. His recent finishes of T3, T2, T17, T7, T2, and T14 speak for themselves, and the underlying metrics are just as impressive. He is hitting greens, gaining strokes tee to green, gaining on approach, and putting at a high level. At just $8,000, I believe he is significantly underpriced for the form he is bringing into this event. Quite frankly, if he had a stronger course history here, we would probably be looking at a golfer priced well into the $9,000 range. He is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate, and I will be very overweight.
Shane Lowry $7,600 Overweight
Call this an Outsider gut feeling play. Shane Lowry has been solid rather than spectacular for much of the season, but something about this setup feels right. He has the experience, the accuracy, and the type of all around game that can succeed at Muirfield Village Golf Club, and he has shown the ability to post quality finishes here in the past. I have a feeling he is going to put everything together this week and remind people just how dangerous he can be. At what should be relatively modest ownership, Lowry has the upside to crack the top 20, push for a top 10, and potentially find his way into the optimal lineup at a very attractive $7,600 salary.
Wyndham Clark $7,300 Overweight
I am going right back to the well with Wyndham Clark this week. The course history is somewhat mixed, but there are enough positives to work with, including a T12 finish and a made cut here last season. More importantly, I liked what I saw from his game last week. The putter does not concern me nearly as much as the improvements in his overall play, particularly around the greens, on approach, and with his confidence level. At just $7,300 and what should be relatively modest ownership, I am willing to bet that momentum carries over for another strong performance at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
Aaron Rai $7,500 Underweight
This is another situation where I am making more of an ownership decision than a talent decision. Aaron Rai is playing good golf and has certainly earned the attention he is receiving, but the course history at Muirfield Village Golf Club leaves something to be desired. With ownership likely to be fairly healthy in this price range, I am comfortable coming in a little below the field. I will still have exposure because the recent form is difficult to ignore, but there are other golfers around his salary that I prefer more this week, making Rai a slightly underweight play in my portfolio.
Mac Meissner $7,100 Outsider Dart Play
Mac Meissner does not have the course history that some others in this range possess, but I like the way his game sets up for this week. He has been playing good golf, gaining strokes tee to green, and showing enough touch around the greens to survive a difficult test at Muirfield Village Golf Club. At what should be low ownership, I am willing to take a shot on the recent form and upside.
Nick Taylor $6,900 Outsider Dart Play
Nick Taylor continues to be one of my favorite value plays on the slate. He is solid around the greens, reliable with his approach play, and does enough tee to green to keep himself in contention. At this price point, I think he has a very realistic path to being part of the optimal lineup while allowing flexibility elsewhere in roster construction.
Alex Fitzpatrick $6,700 Underweight
I think a lot of people are going to be drawn toward Alex Fitzpatrick this week because of the recent finishes and the buzz surrounding his game. While I understand the appeal, I am not convinced he deserves the level of ownership he is likely to receive. At expected popularity, I would rather look elsewhere in this range for leverage.
Daniel Berger $6,700 Outsider Dart Play
Daniel Berger is not lighting the world on fire at the moment, but he is playing well enough to warrant consideration. He has shown he can compete at Muirfield Village Golf Club, including a top five finish here, and his all around game remains solid. At this salary, I think the upside outweighs the risk, especially if ownership stays reasonable.
Eric Cole $6,700 Outsider Dart Play
Eric Cole is simply playing too well for me to ignore. He has posted three top six finishes in his last four starts and is coming off another strong showing last week. Add in three consecutive made cuts at Muirfield Village Golf Club, and you have a golfer who brings both current form and course comfort to the table. He is one of my favorite value plays on the slate.
Tony Finau $6,600 Outsider Dart Play
Experience matters at a place like Muirfield Village Golf Club, and Tony Finau has plenty of it. His short game, creativity around the greens, and ability to grind through difficult conditions give him a solid floor at this price. If the ball striking cooperates, I could easily see him finding his way into the top 15.
Ryan Fox $6,500 Outsider Dart Play
Ryan Fox continues to quietly do a lot of things well. He has posted a pair of respectable finishes at this event and enters the week with a game that fits many of the key metrics we are targeting. At this salary, I think he offers excellent value and gives lineups another path toward differentiation.
Sungjae Im $6,500 Outsider Dart Play
Last week was disappointing, but I am willing to look past it. Sungjae Im has shown strong form at various points this season, including impressive performances at the Byron Nelson and the Truist Championship. The course history is solid, the around the green game should play well here, and I believe he has significantly more upside than his salary suggests.
Billy Horschel $6,200 Outsider Dart Play
I am willing to take a shot on Billy Horschel at this price. He has won at Muirfield Village Golf Club before and has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to play well on this golf course. While recent form leaves some questions, the combination of experience, course history, and salary relief makes him an intriguing tournament option.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Hey meatballs, Frankie is fading J.J. Spaun this week. The price tag is $8,000, the ownership is expected to push north of 15 percent, and I just ain’t buying it. Everybody is looking at the recent results and convincing themselves this is the week, but I think they are walking right into a trap faster than my cousin Vinny walked into his third divorce.
Listen, Spaun has played some solid golf lately, I’ll give him that. But this ain’t the course where I want to pay up for him. He missed the cut here last year, the course history doesn’t exactly make me wanna do cartwheels, and if he starts missing greens this week, I don’t trust the around the green game enough to bail him out. At Muirfield Village Golf Club, you better be able to save par when things go sideways, and I’m not convinced he has enough magic in the short game department to survive four rounds of this place.
Matter of fact, this week J.J. Spaun is gonna be playing more like J.J. McCarthy. And let me tell you something, if I needed somebody to help me win a golf tournament, I’d rather have the quarterback. At least he knows how to throw a touchdown.
The way I see it, there are simply better options in this range with stronger course fits and similar upside. If Spaun beats me, so be it. I’ll tip my cap, grab a cannoli, and move on with my life. But when ownership starts climbing and everybody is piling into the same golfer, that’s usually when Frankie starts looking the other way.
Capisce?
Final Thoughts
I am genuinely excited to watch this tournament. We get to see whether Scottie Scheffler can pull off the three peat, we get a loaded Signature Event field, and most importantly, we get to watch a golf course that actually fights back. Give me this every day over a tournament where half the field is sitting within three shots of the lead and birdies are flying around like confetti. I want to see players forced to think. I want to see players scrambling for par. I want to see frustration, pressure, and the occasional meltdown when Muirfield Village Golf Club starts punching back.
From a DFS perspective, the strategy this week is fairly straightforward. Find your horse for the course and build around golfers whose skill sets match what this tournament demands. If you are paying up for Scottie Scheffler, you need to identify the right value pieces that can outperform their salaries. If you are fading Scheffler, the balanced build becomes extremely interesting because we have seen plenty of tournaments where the winner was not necessarily required in the optimal lineup. The key is finding golfers who fit the profile. Length off the tee, accuracy off the tee, strong tee to green play, the ability to scramble, and the discipline to avoid big numbers.
There are multiple paths to victory this week, which is what makes the slate so fascinating. Mix and match your player pool, find some leverage, do not be afraid to leave a little salary on the table, and most importantly, trust your process. Now let’s go take down a GPP.
It only takes one.
