The NASCAR Cup Series is finally back at Chicagoland Speedway, and this is not a normal copy and paste mile and a half preview. The Cup Series has not raced here since 2019, which means the last race here came before the Next Gen car. That matters. We can respect the old track history, and I will absolutely use it as a tiebreaker, but I am not pretending old box scores tell us exactly how this race is going to play out. Different car, different era, different field, and a whole lot of unknowns.
Chicagoland is a mile and a half track with character. They cleaned the place up, painted it, refreshed the facility, and made it look pretty again, but underneath all that makeup, this is still Chicagoland. It is wide, worn, bumpy, slick, and it still has that old school feel where drivers have to search for grip and make speed in different lanes. This is the same place that gave us that wild Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch finish, and it still looks like the kind of track where cars can move around, tires can fall off, and things can get uncomfortable in a hurry.
Watching the O’Reilly race only added to that feeling. Passing was there, but it was not automatic. Drivers were hunting for lanes, dirty air mattered, tire falloff looked real, and the track had enough chaos baked into it to make this slate exciting. That is why I am not treating this like a normal data table week. I care more about long run speed, qualifying position, current mile and a half form, tire management, and drivers who can handle a car when it starts sliding around.
That brings us to the big names. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are the obvious dominator candidates starting up front, and Larson is one of my favorite plays because this type of slick, lane searching race fits him perfectly. I also like Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott here because they have experience, patience, and the kind of profile that can work if this becomes a long run, tire management race. Brad Keselowski is uncomfortable starting fourth, but with two wins and five top fives in eleven Chicagoland starts, he has to be in the conversation. This is a core and construction slate, not a fake certainty slate, and the edge is going to come from trusting the right clues while the field overreacts to the wrong ones.
DFS Outsider Pitfalls/Mistakes
One of the bigger mistakes this week is overreacting to one-lap qualifying speed and ignoring what showed up deeper into practice runs. Qualifying matters, and clean air is always important, but this does not look like a race where one fast lap tells the whole story. I care more about who held speed over 10, 15, 20, and 25 laps because this track looks like it is going to have tire falloff, lane searching, and cars moving around as the run goes on. Tyler Reddick was the obvious standout in the long-run averages, but Ryan Blaney, Corey Heim, and Chase Briscoe also stood out in ways that matter. Briscoe especially is interesting because his short-run speed was not anything crazy, but the longer-run speed looked much stronger. That is the kind of thing I want to pay attention to here.
Another mistake is trying to get cute just because this race has unknowns. Being different does not mean building a bunch of random nonsense and hoping chaos bails you out. I would rather build around a core group of six or seven drivers I actually trust, then rotate the fifth and sixth spots to create differentiation. That is where the slate gets interesting. The dark plays, the value pieces, the guys starting deeper, the drivers who might have a real path to move forward. Those are the spots where you can separate, but they still need to make sense. I do not want cheap guys just because they are cheap. I want cheap guys who can actually pass cars, survive the dirty air, and climb into a finish that matters.
The final mistake is overtrusting old Chicagoland history. I do think history matters here, but only as a tiebreaker. Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and Denny Hamlin all have experience or history that deserves attention, but the last Cup race here was in 2019. That was before the Next Gen car, and that changes everything. The old results can tell us who has comfort at the track, but they cannot tell us exactly how this car is going to race on this surface. Use the history, respect it, but do not let it drive the car.
| Driver | Start | Salary |
|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 1st | $11,000 |
| Tyler Reddick | 13th | $10,700 |
| Kyle Larson | 2nd | $10,500 |
| Ryan Blaney | 14th | $10,200 |
| Christopher Bell | 6th | $10,000 |
| Chase Briscoe | 7th | $9,900 |
| William Byron | 10th | $9,700 |
| Chase Elliott | 9th | $9,500 |
| Ty Gibbs | 5th | $9,000 |
| Carson Hocevar | 15th | $8,800 |
| Chris Buescher | 3rd | $8,700 |
| Bubba Wallace | 8th | $8,500 |
| Joey Logano | 31st | $8,200 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4th | $8,000 |
| Ross Chastain | 19th | $7,800 |
| Daniel Suarez | 26th | $7,700 |
| Corey Heim | 28th | $7,500 |
| Alex Bowman | 12th | $7,300 |
| Erik Jones | 22nd | $7,200 |
| Austin Cindric | 23rd | $7,000 |
| Shane van Gisbergen | 30th | $6,800 |
| Ryan Preece | 20th | $6,700 |
| Zane Smith | 16th | $6,600 |
| Riley Herbst | 18th | $6,500 |
| Conor Daly | 21st | $6,300 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 24th | $6,200 |
| Michael McDowell | 38th | $6,100 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 11th | $6,000 |
| Austin Dillon | 25th | $5,800 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 17th | $5,700 |
| Austin Hill | 35th | $5,600 |
| Josh Berry | 34th | $5,500 |
| Noah Gragson | 32nd | $5,400 |
| Todd Gilliland | 29th | $5,300 |
| Cole Custer | 33rd | $5,100 |
| Ty Dillon | 27th | $5,000 |
| Cody Ware | 37th | $4,800 |
| J.J. Yeley | 36th | $4,500 |
Elite Tier
Denny Hamlin $11,000, slightly underweight
Listen, Denny checks a ton of boxes. He qualified fast, he has been one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR, he is sitting first in points, and he has a chance to control this race early. I am going to have exposure because I am not stupid. But I am also choosing to be slightly under the field here. He has won at Chicagoland before, but the overall history is not exactly dominant when you look at the full picture. I know this is a new car, a new year, and a new version of Denny Hamlin, but at $11,000, I am fine taking a little bit of a stand and being slightly underweight.
Kyle Larson $10,500, overweight
This is one of my favorite plays on the slate. Larson is due, he loves this track, he has shown speed, and this type of worn out, lane searching, tire falloff race fits him perfectly. Check, check, check, check, check. My gut feeling is that he may come in a little less owned than Denny, and if that is the case, I want to be overweight. Larson can lead laps, run different lanes, manage a loose race car, and win this race. That is the kind of upside I want to bet on.
Tyler Reddick $10,700, overweight
Reddick is another guy I want to be ahead of the field on. He showed a ton of consistency in practice, especially when you look at the longer run averages. He was not just a one lap flash. He had speed that looked like it could hold up deeper into a run, and that matters here. With the way he races, his upside on this type of track, and the place differential available, I think he is ready to rock and roll. This is exactly the type of surface where Reddick can get aggressive, search for grip, and make speed where other guys cannot.
Ryan Blaney $10,200, overweight
Blaney is another core piece for me. Of the top tier guys, I think he has one of the best combinations of moving forward potential, long run strength, track experience, and race winning upside. Him and Reddick both start in spots where they can score well without having to dominate every lap, and if they do get to the front, then we are really cooking. Blaney has shown he can run well here, and this feels like a race where patience, tire management, and long run speed can matter a lot. I want to be overweight on Reddick, Larson, and Blaney as my main elite core.
Chase Elliott $9,500, overweight
Chase looked strong in the O’Reilly race and showed that he knows how to work this track. Early in that race, he did a great job controlling things when he had clean air, finding the right lanes, and showing the kind of speed that can translate here. At $9,500, I think the price is very fair. He has experience, he has the track feel, and he does not need to lead half the race to be a strong play. I think he is one of the better values in this upper range.
Chris Buescher $8,700, underweight
I just do not love the starting position. He is starting too far forward for what I need at this price, and I do not really see him winning this race. That is the problem. He likely needs to lead laps, stay inside the top five, or be a serious race winning threat, and I am just not there. His old Chicagoland history was not anything that makes me want to chase this spot either. Could he run well? Sure. But for DFS, I think this is more risk than reward, and I am choosing to be underweight.
Brad Keselowski $8,000, overweight
This is a horse for the course play. Brad loves this track, has won here twice, and has raced extremely well here over the years. Starting fourth is not ideal for DFS, but the price is right, and I think a top five is very attainable. That is what he needs from this starting spot, and I think he can get there. Qualified well, has strong history, and clearly understands how to get around this place. I am going to have him in some lineups.
Middle Tier
Corey Heim $7,500, overweight
Heim looked great in the practice runs, and now he comes in with confidence after the win. At this price tag, the moving forward potential is obvious. He does not have to do anything crazy to pay this off. If he can stay clean, avoid getting buried in dirty air, and work his way into the teens, he can be a major piece of this slate. The practice speed, confidence, starting spot, and price all add up to high exposure for me.
Austin Cindric $7,000, overweight
I like Cindric here because the path is simple. He starts far enough back where he has room to move forward, and I think he can get himself into the top 15. At $7,000, that can absolutely put him in optimal lineup conversation. He does not need to win the race. He does not need to lead laps. He just needs to be solid, move forward, and finish where I think he is capable of finishing. That makes him one of the better middle tier plays for me.
DFS Outsider Dart Plays
Shane van Gisbergen $6,800
This is a high upside play. SVG has improved on the ovals, he is in the chase, and he is going to be fighting hard for every spot he can get. Starting 30th gives him a real path to move forward, and at this price tag, that is exactly what we are looking for. He does not need to be perfect. He needs to survive, keep learning the lanes, and work his way into the low 20s or high teens. If he does that, he can absolutely matter on this slate.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,200
This is the kind of play that is not going to feel beautiful, but it makes sense. Stenhouse has experience here, this type of track can fit him, and he qualified solid enough where the path is realistic. He needs to work his way into the mid teens or better, and I think that is very attainable. At this price tag, if he can survive the chaos, keep the car clean, and move forward, he can matter.
Michael McDowell $6,100
McDowell has to be considered because he is starting at the very back, and from 38th, the only thing he can do is move forward. He is also not a bad race car driver. He is much better than that starting spot. The concern is that the No. 71 failed inspection three times, was not allowed to qualify, and McDowell will have to serve a pass-through penalty after taking the green flag. That adds risk, but the place differential path is still sitting right there. He is going to carry ownership, but I am going to have exposure.
John Hunter Nemechek $5,700
John Hunter Nemechek put together a pretty good qualifying effort, and I still think he can improve from there. At this price tag, he does not have to do something insane to matter. If he can finish around 10th to 14th, he could absolutely find himself in the optimal lineup. It is not the safest play on the board, but the price, the starting spot, and the path to a strong finish make him one of the cheap guys I want to have in the mix.
Noah Gragson $5,400
Gragson is a DFS Outsider gut shot. He is not safe, he is not pretty, and I am not pretending he is some lock button salary saver. But starting 32nd at $5,400, he is one of those long shot plays that can help you win if he just survives and moves forward. He does not need to break the slate open with a top ten. He just needs to grind his way into the low 20s or better and let the rest of the lineup do the heavy lifting.
Realistically, this whole cheap range is going to be a plug and play mix for me outside of J.J. Yeley and Cody Ware. You can make cases for Austin Dillon, Austin Hill, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland, Cole Custer, and Ty Dillon as long shot salary savers. I am not trying to plant my flag on every one of them. I am looking for one cheap piece that can survive, move forward, and not kill the lineup. If one of these guys breaks into the low 20s or better, that might be all you need to make the rest of the build work.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Christopher Bell $10,000
Hey meatballs, look, Frankie likes Bell as a driver. Frankie does not like Bell as a DraftKings play this week. There is a difference, capisce? Starting sixth, priced at $10,000, and still dealing with that fractured wrist, this is a tough spot on a bumpy, worn out Chicagoland track. If Bell goes out and wins the race, fine, Frankie takes a couple meatballs to the chin. But if he runs outside of the top five all day, that does nothing for us. There are other studs charging forward, and there are already fast cars starting ahead of him. Frankie is fading Bell because this week, he does not hear it ringing. Capisce?
Final Thoughts
Listen folks, let’s be honest. This week is interesting because we do not have a ton of clean data to lean on. Chicagoland has not been on the Cup schedule since 2019, the Next Gen car has never raced here in a Cup race, and a lot of this slate is going to come down to making the right calls. You are going to have to decide where you want to be bullish, where you want to be bearish, and where you are willing to trust your gut.
For me, it is pretty clear who I want heavier exposure to and who I am not going to have a lot of interest in. That does not mean every lineup has to look the exact same, but I do think this is a week where you want to stick to your core. Mix and match around the guys you trust, rotate some of the dart plays, and find different ways to build without spreading yourself so thin that you end up with a bunch of lineups you do not even believe in.
I would try a few balanced builds without one of the guys starting on the front row, because that is one way to get different if this race gets weird. But in reality, I do not want to get too cute. Stick to your guns, leave a little money on the table, start your builds from different points, and if there are certain guys you really want, build around them instead of hoping they just fit at the end.
This is a core and construction slate. Pick your spots, trust your read, and let the field chase comfort where there really is not much comfort to be had. Let’s go take down a GPP, rock and roll, and good luck this week.
It only takes one
