Track Preview
This week the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Pocono Raceway for the Great American Getaway 400. Known as the Tricky Triangle, Pocono is one of the most unique tracks on the entire NASCAR schedule. Unlike traditional oval tracks, Pocono features just three corners, with each turn requiring a completely different approach. The result is a race that rewards versatility, patience, strategy, and drivers who can adapt throughout a run.
Pocono Raceway is a 2.5 mile asphalt track located in Long Pond, Pennsylvania. The race will be contested over 160 laps for a total distance of 400 miles. While the track may share the same length as Daytona and Indianapolis, the racing style is entirely different. Teams are constantly forced to make setup compromises because each corner presents a unique challenge.
Turn One features fourteen degrees of banking and is modeled after the old Trenton Speedway. The Tunnel Turn carries eight degrees of banking and demands precision from the driver. Turn Three has just six degrees of banking and places a premium on getting a strong exit onto the front straightaway. Because no car can be perfect in all three corners, crew chiefs must decide where they are willing to give up speed in order to gain it elsewhere.
The long straightaways create opportunities for drafting and passing, while fuel mileage and pit strategy frequently become major storylines. Unlike some tracks where one dominant car can control the race from start to finish, Pocono often rewards teams that execute throughout the entire afternoon. Track position remains important, but drivers can move forward through the field if they have speed.
Last season, Chase Briscoe captured the victory after a strategic battle that came down to fuel management and long run execution. As we begin building DraftKings lineups this week, Pocono profiles as a track where place differential, roster construction, and strategic leverage may prove more important than simply identifying the fastest car.
With only 160 laps scheduled, there are fewer dominator points available than many races on the schedule. That often shifts lineup construction toward balanced builds and drivers capable of gaining positions throughout the race. Once qualifying is complete, identifying the right combination of place differential and race winning upside will likely be the key to tournament success.
Last Week Recap & DFS Reflection
Michigan was shaping up to be a huge week. With roughly twenty laps remaining, I was sitting in first place for $20,000 in the $5 tournament while also having several other lineups in strong position across multiple contests. Unfortunately, William Byron found trouble late in the race and faded through the field, taking several of my highest upside lineups with him. We still managed to turn a small profit on the week, but that is not what we are chasing. We are looking for tournament winning scores, and Michigan felt like one that got away. The takeaway is that our picks were spot on, our angles were good, and we had exposure to all of the key drivers that mattered. We simply did not have the exact combination needed to take down the tournament, and sometimes that is all that separates a good week from a great one.
DRAFTKINGS 300K Burnout Winning Lineup
Denny Hamlin ($11,000)
Bubba Wallace ($8,500)
Joey Logano ($8,200)
Ross Chastain ($8,100)
Austin Cindric ($7,000)
Josh Berry ($5,900)
As we begin building lineups for Pocono, last week’s winning roster provides an interesting blueprint. The lineup featured one driver starting in first, two drivers starting in the teens, and three drivers starting outside the top thirty. That combination highlights the value of place differential and drivers with opportunities to move forward throughout the race. While this will not be our only lineup construction approach this week, it will certainly be one of the primary concepts we consider as we work through the slate. With only 160 laps scheduled and fewer dominator points available than many races on the calendar, drivers capable of significantly outperforming their starting position could once again play a major role in tournament winning lineups.
Understanding The Data
Before we start breaking down individual drivers, I like to build a simple reference chart that helps identify drivers who have historically performed well at Pocono while also highlighting potential place differential opportunities. The chart tracks several key categories and assigns points based on where each driver ranks within those metrics.
Points System
• 1st through 10th = 4 Points
• 11th through 19th = 3 Points
• 20th through 29th = 2 Points
• 30th through End of Field = 1 Point
Categories Tracked
• Salary
• Starting Position
• Average Finish
• Laps Led
• Driver Rating
• Stage Points
Starting Position Scoring
Starting position is scored in reverse. Drivers starting deeper in the field receive additional credit because of their place differential upside, while drivers starting near the front receive fewer points in this category.
The second chart combines all of these category scores into a single table and provides a quick snapshot of which drivers check the most boxes heading into the weekend. This is not intended to be a ranking system or a projection model. Instead, it serves as a starting point for our research by highlighting drivers with strong track history, favorable starting position, and potential upside. From there, we can apply ownership, leverage, lineup construction, and game theory to identify the best tournament targets for the slate.
Understanding The Data
Before we start breaking down individual drivers, I like to build a simple reference chart that helps identify drivers who have historically performed well at Pocono while also highlighting potential place differential opportunities. The chart tracks several key categories and assigns points based on where each driver ranks within those metrics.
Points System
• 1st through 10th = 4 Points
• 11th through 19th = 3 Points
• 20th through 29th = 2 Points
• 30th through End of Field = 1 Point
Categories Tracked
• Salary
• Starting Position
• Average Finish
• Laps Led
• Driver Rating
• Stage Points (Last 3 Pocono Races)
Starting Position Scoring
Starting position is scored in reverse. Drivers starting deeper in the field receive additional credit because of their place differential upside, while drivers starting near the front receive fewer points in this category.
The second chart combines all of these category scores into a single table and provides a quick snapshot of which drivers check the most boxes heading into the weekend. This is not intended to be a ranking system or a projection model. Instead, it serves as a starting point for our research by highlighting drivers with strong track history, favorable starting position, and potential upside. From there, we can apply ownership, leverage, lineup construction, and game theory to identify the best tournament targets for the slate.
Understanding The Data
Before we start breaking down individual drivers, I like to build a simple reference chart that helps identify drivers who have historically performed well at Pocono while also highlighting potential place differential opportunities. The chart tracks several key categories and assigns points based on where each driver ranks within those metrics.
Points System
• 1st through 10th = 4 Points
• 11th through 19th = 3 Points
• 20th through 29th = 2 Points
• 30th through End of Field = 1 Point
Categories Tracked
• Salary
• Starting Position
• Average Finish
• Laps Led
• Driver Rating
• Stage Points (Last 3 Pocono Races)
Starting Position Scoring
Starting position is scored in reverse. Drivers starting deeper in the field receive additional credit because of their place differential upside, while drivers starting near the front receive fewer points in this category.
The second chart combines all of these category scores into a single table and provides a quick snapshot of which drivers check the most boxes heading into the weekend. This is not intended to be a ranking system or a projection model. Instead, it serves as a starting point for our research by highlighting drivers with strong track history, favorable starting position, and potential upside. From there, we can apply ownership, leverage, lineup construction, and game theory to identify the best tournament targets for the slate.
Understanding The Data
Before we start breaking down individual drivers, I like to build a simple reference chart that helps identify drivers who have historically performed well at Pocono while also highlighting potential place differential opportunities. The chart tracks several key categories and assigns points based on where each driver ranks within those metrics.
Points System
• 1st through 10th = 4 Points
• 11th through 19th = 3 Points
• 20th through 29th = 2 Points
• 30th through End of Field = 1 Point
Categories Tracked
• Salary
• Starting Position
• Average Finish
• Laps Led
• Driver Rating
• Stage Points (Last 3 Pocono Races)
Starting Position Scoring
Starting position is scored in reverse. Drivers starting deeper in the field receive additional credit because of their place differential upside, while drivers starting near the front receive fewer points in this category.
The second chart combines all of these category scores into a single table and provides a quick snapshot of which drivers check the most boxes heading into the weekend. This is not intended to be a ranking system or a projection model. Instead, it serves as a starting point for our research by highlighting drivers with strong track history, favorable starting position, and potential upside. From there, we can apply ownership, leverage, lineup construction, and game theory to identify the best tournament targets for the slate.
| Driver | Salary | Starting Position | Avg Finish | Laps Led | Stage Points (Last 3 Pocono Races) | Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | $11,000 | 1 | 1.7 | 72 | 49 | 127.5 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,500 | 2 | 13.3 | 24 | 17 | 87.2 |
| Tyler Reddick | $10,300 | 16 | 13.3 | 15 | 29 | 91.3 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,100 | 10 | 11.3 | 49 | 6 | 100.3 |
| Chase Briscoe | $9,900 | 5 | 15.0 | 72 | 17 | 81.1 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,700 | 22 | 11.7 | 0 | 5 | 80.8 |
| William Byron | $9,500 | 9 | 15.0 | 60 | 31 | 94.4 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,200 | 23 | 8.0 | 0 | 26 | 100.5 |
| Ty Gibbs | $8,900 | 4 | 15.3 | 25 | 4 | 87.5 |
| Carson Hocevar | $8,700 | 26 | 17.5 | 2 | 1 | 79.2 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,500 | 6 | 11.0 | 21 | 17 | 100.3 |
| Joey Logano | $8,300 | 11 | 18.7 | 29 | 20 | 86.7 |
| Ross Chastain | $8,100 | 24 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | 52.4 |
| Bubba Wallace | $8,000 | 38 | 19.0 | 0 | 6 | 60.5 |
| Brad Keselowski | $7,900 | 37 | 10.7 | 47 | 11 | 97.4 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,700 | 3 | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | 56.6 |
| Erik Jones | $7,500 | 7 | 12.0 | 0 | 14 | 83.0 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,300 | 12 | 12.7 | 15 | 16 | 89.0 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,200 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 4 | 70.7 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | $7,000 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 | 0 | 38.3 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,900 | 35 | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | 57.9 |
| Zane Smith | $6,800 | 18 | 27.0 | 0 | 5 | 60.6 |
| Josh Berry | $6,600 | 20 | 16.0 | 8 | 9 | 74.3 |
| Connor Zilisch | $6,500 | 28 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Michael McDowell | $6,300 | 13 | 26.0 | 0 | 5 | 51.2 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,100 | 19 | 19.7 | 0 | 6 | 56.9 |
| Riley Herbst | $6,000 | 25 | 37.0 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | $5,900 | 8 | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 68.2 |
| Austin Dillon | $5,800 | 32 | 27.0 | 0 | 0 | 47.9 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,700 | 21 | 23.3 | 2 | 0 | 56.5 |
| Austin Hill | $5,500 | 14 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Noah Gragson | $5,400 | 30 | 27.3 | 0 | 0 | 41.0 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5,300 | 29 | 25.7 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Cole Custer | $5,100 | 15 | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 46.8 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,000 | 27 | 30.5 | 0 | 9 | 33.8 |
| Daniel Dye | $4,900 | 34 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cody Ware | $4,700 | 33 | 27.5 | 0 | 0 | 32.5 |
| Casey Mears | $4,500 | 36 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Total Points Breakdown
| Driver | Salary | Start Pos Pts | Avg Finish Pts | Laps Led Pts | Stage Points Pts | Driver Rating Pts | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | $7,900 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| Tyler Reddick | $10,300 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,200 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,300 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,500 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| Denny Hamlin | $11,000 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,100 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,500 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| Joey Logano | $8,300 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,700 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| William Byron | $9,500 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| Chase Briscoe | $9,900 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| Bubba Wallace | $8,000 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| Erik Jones | $7,500 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| Josh Berry | $6,600 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Ty Gibbs | $8,900 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| Carson Hocevar | $8,700 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| Zane Smith | $6,800 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,900 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,200 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,100 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,300 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| Ross Chastain | $8,100 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,700 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| Austin Dillon | $5,800 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| Noah Gragson | $5,400 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| Cody Ware | $4,700 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | $5,900 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | $7,000 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5,300 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,000 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,700 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| Cole Custer | $5,100 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| Riley Herbst | $6,000 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| Daniel Dye | $4,900 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Casey Mears | $4,500 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Connor Zilisch | $6,500 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Austin Hill | $5,500 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
Initial Takeaways From The Data
One of the more surprising results from our scoring system is seeing Brad Keselowski sitting at the top of the board. Not only does he grade out extremely well from a historical standpoint, but he also starts 37th, creating one of the best place differential opportunities on the entire slate. It is difficult to imagine building a portfolio of lineups this week without having significant exposure to Keselowski.
Right behind him are Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, and Alex Bowman. Reddick stands out as one of the most interesting drivers on the slate because he offers a combination of historical success, place differential upside, and race winning potential. Elliott and Bowman both grade out extremely well relative to their salaries and deserve consideration as building blocks for tournament lineups.
At the top of the salary range, it is difficult to ignore Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. Hamlin owns seven career victories at Pocono, while Larson continues to be one of the most dominant drivers in the sport. Both drivers graded extremely well despite starting on the front row, which speaks to just how strong their historical data has been at this track. There is a strong argument that one of these two drivers wins the race, and finding the right level of exposure to both will likely be an important decision this week.
From a leverage standpoint, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and Chase Elliott stand out. All three drivers start deeper in the field than Hamlin and Larson while still possessing race winning upside. Bell and Elliott in particular could become key tournament pieces if ownership concentrates heavily on the front row starters and the obvious place differential options. Blaney also presents an interesting pivot for players looking to gain exposure to a potential race winner without following the most popular roster construction paths.
While Bubba Wallace does not grade out quite as well from a historical perspective, starting 38th creates enormous opportunity. He does not need to contend for the win to become a strong DraftKings play. A solid finish inside the top twenty could easily put him in the optimal lineup conversation, and his starting position alone makes him one of the most important drivers to evaluate this week.
The mid range is loaded with options. Josh Berry immediately stands out at $6,600 and continues to be one of the drivers I am most interested in from a value perspective. Ryan Preece, Alex Bowman, Austin Cindric, and Zane Smith all present different paths to success depending on how aggressively you want to attack place differential and salary relief.
There are also several drivers who could serve as lineup flexibility pieces. Shane Van Gisbergen starts 31st and has shown significant improvement throughout the season, although Pocono presents a unique challenge because of its three distinct corners. Ty Dillon, Daniel Dye, and Noah Gragson all offer salary relief that could make higher priced roster constructions possible, particularly in lineups that attempt to pair multiple elite drivers together.
At this stage, my initial approach will likely revolve around mixing exposure to the elite dominator candidates with drivers capable of gaining significant positions throughout the race. Rather than relying on a single lineup construction, I expect to build around multiple combinations involving Hamlin, Larson, Reddick, Keselowski, Bell, Elliott, and Wallace, while using the value tier to create different paths to a tournament winning lineup.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Hey meatballs, Frankie here, and this week’s Frankie Fade is Chase Briscoe. Now listen, I know he won here last year. I know all about the Bass Pro Shops car. For fuck’s sake, that’s Jay’s favorite driver. But that was last year. Frankie sees a $9,900 price tag and a fifth place starting spot. That’s a whole lotta mozzarella for a guy with not a whole lotta room to move forward.
A lot of people are going to be saying go Briscoe go this week. Frankie is over here saying no Briscoe no. Maybe he wins. Maybe he runs great. But Frankie doesn’t like paying premium prices because of what happened a year ago. Frankie likes finding new angles, and this week there are plenty of other meatballs on the menu with more upside and a lot more room to move forward.
Jay might still have some exposure because, let’s be honest, it’s Chase Briscoe. But even Jay knows you can’t let your favorite driver make all your decisions. Sometimes the hardest thing in DFS is ignoring temptation. This week Frankie is willing to take that chance and look elsewhere.
Capisce?
Final Thoughts
As we wrap things up, I think the overall approach this week looks somewhat similar to what we saw at Michigan. Ownership is going to concentrate heavily around Brad Keselowski and Bubba Wallace, and for good reason. Starting 37th and 38th respectively, both drivers offer tremendous place differential upside. The challenge for DFS players will be deciding whether to match the field, get overweight, or look for ways to build around one without automatically locking in both.
At the top of the board, Denny Hamlin is going to be extremely popular. Everything points toward Hamlin having another strong day at Pocono. The track history is elite, the recent form is elite, and he starts on the pole. Kyle Larson could actually become a bit of a leverage play simply because so much attention will be directed toward Hamlin. Tyler Reddick also figures to attract plenty of ownership and looks like one of the strongest overall plays on the slate.
If you’re looking for ways to be different, there are opportunities all over this player pool. Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney all offer race winning upside while potentially getting overlooked compared to some of the more obvious builds. Chris Buescher is another name that stands out. Nobody is going to get excited about a driver starting near the front, but his historical numbers at Pocono remain strong and he could easily find his way into an optimal lineup.
Personally, I do not expect to have much exposure to Daniel Suarez, Ty Gibbs, or some of the other drivers starting near the front. That does not mean they cannot win the race. It simply means I am choosing to attack the slate differently and focus my attention on drivers who provide more flexibility, more upside, or a path to unique lineup construction.
Several value plays continue to stand out as I build lineups. Ryan Preece is a driver I expect to have significant exposure to, while Alex Bowman, Austin Cindric, and Carson Hocevar all offer interesting ways to pivot away from some of the more popular roster constructions. Josh Berry remains one of the more intriguing names on the slate as well. With uncertainty surrounding his future, it will be interesting to see how he responds. Sometimes adversity creates opportunity, and sometimes it becomes a distraction. That uncertainty alone makes him one of the more fascinating tournament plays this week.
At the end of the day, this looks like a fun slate with multiple paths to victory. Do not be afraid to leave some salary on the table. Do not be afraid to build lineups that tell a different story than the field. The winning lineup is usually sitting right in front of us. The challenge is finding the right six drivers and putting them together before everyone else does.
It only takes one
