Last week was an absolute fucking clinic for The DFS Outsider. The entire Genesis Scottish Open preview was built around attacking the inflated pricing, trusting golfers with proven links ability, and refusing to treat Scottie Scheffler like an automatic play simply because he is the best golfer in the world. The results validated nearly every major position we took. We identified the right expensive golfers, avoided several popular landmines, found legitimate production throughout the lower pricing ranges, and highlighted the golfer who eventually won the tournament. I did not find the exact lineup combination that took down a massive GPP, but I produced several strong lineups, had a very positive DFS week, and repeatedly put myself in position to make a serious run. That is the Outsider way. You cannot control every bounce, every putt, or every lineup combination, but you can consistently give yourself a chance to win these tournaments. That is exactly what I did, and I sincerely hope somebody used the article to win a whole lot of money.
• Scottie Scheffler was priced at an outrageous $14,000, and we made the decision to fade him. Scheffler proceeded to miss the cut for the first time in nearly two years. Avoiding that combination of enormous salary and massive ownership was worth money before the weekend even started.
• Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick were identified as my preferred expensive options. Fitzpatrick finished tied for third, while McIlroy charged up the leaderboard Sunday and finished tied for seventh.
• Harris English and Alex Fitzpatrick were two golfers I specifically wanted to avoid. Both missed the cut and removed a large portion of the field from contention.
• Tom Kim had the course history, creativity, iron play, and recent signs of improvement that I wanted to attack. He rewarded that confidence by firing a bogey free 64 on Sunday and winning the Genesis Scottish Open at 17 under par.
• Jordan Smith, Victor Perez, Mikael Lindberg, and Oliver Lindell all provided legitimate production at affordable salaries. Perez finished tied for third, while the group collectively reinforced the importance of digging beyond the familiar PGA Tour names when playing a co sanctioned event on a links course.
Now we carry that momentum into the fourth and final major championship of the season as the best golfers in the world travel to Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, for the 154th Open Championship. The field gets considerably stronger this week, with Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, and nearly every other major name in professional golf competing for the Claret Jug. DraftKings also deserves some credit for creating a much more playable slate. Scheffler is no longer sitting at that absurd $14,000 salary, and the player pool extends deep into the $5,000 range. That gives us numerous ways to construct lineups, whether we want to pay for the elite talent, build through the balanced middle, or use an inexpensive links specialist to create a unique roster. After several weeks of unnecessarily restrictive pricing, this finally feels like a slate where we can build lineups we actually enjoy playing.
Royal Birkdale will present a different challenge than The Renaissance Club did last week. Both are links courses that require creativity, wind control, quality approach play, and an understanding of how to use the ground, but Royal Birkdale is a much more demanding major championship test. The Renaissance Club offered wider landing areas and enough scoring opportunities for the winner to reach 17 under par. Royal Birkdale plays as a par 70 at approximately 7,223 yards, with fairways carved through natural valleys between towering sand dunes. That layout provides players with more clearly defined targets than certain other Open venues, which is why Birkdale is often described as one of the fairest courses in the Open rotation. Fair does not mean easy. Deep revetted bunkers, thick dune grass, firm playing surfaces, awkward approach angles, and constantly changing coastal winds can turn a slightly inaccurate shot into an immediate bogey. Golfers will need to place the ball intelligently rather than simply overpowering the course.
The foundation of the modern layout was created by five time Champion Golfer J.H. Taylor and architect Frederick G. Hawtree, whose redesign placed the holes through the valleys of the dunes rather than directly over them. That design philosophy keeps much of the golf visible from the tee, but it also makes position extremely important. Royal Birkdale most recently hosted The Open in 2017, when Jordan Spieth finished at 12 under par and defeated Matt Kuchar by three strokes. Spieth entered the final round with a three shot advantage, lost the lead after a difficult opening stretch, and appeared to be unraveling after driving wildly right on the 13th hole. He escaped with one of the most important bogeys of his career, then responded with a birdie on 14, an eagle on 15, another birdie on 16, and one more on 17 to seize control of the championship. The sequence demonstrated exactly what Birkdale demands. Players must survive their mistakes, remain patient during difficult stretches, and possess enough shot making ability to attack when scoring opportunities finally appear.
Last year’s Open was held at Royal Portrush, where Scottie Scheffler finished at 17 under par and won by four strokes over Harris English. That result belongs to a completely different golf course, so we cannot simply transfer the 2025 leaderboard directly into this week’s analysis. Royal Birkdale has also produced dramatically different winning conditions throughout its history. Spieth reached 12 under in 2017, while Padraig Harrington won here at three over par in brutal winds in 2008. The weather will ultimately determine where the winning score lands this week, but the underlying requirements remain consistent. We want controlled drivers, intelligent shot makers, strong long iron players, creative links golfers, dependable scramblers, and competitors who can avoid the catastrophic mistakes that destroy major championship lineups. With that course identity established, it is time to break down the statistics that matter most and identify which golfers are truly equipped to survive Royal Birkdale.
Fast, Dry and Consistent Conditions Should Put Links Experience to the Test
The weather does not appear ready to create a major tee time wave advantage this week, with winds generally expected to remain in the 8 to 15 mile per hour range from Thursday through Sunday and no significant storm system currently threatening the tournament. That does not mean Royal Birkdale will play easy. The dry conditions have already made the course extremely firm and fast, and every additional day without meaningful rain will make the fairways and greens run even harder. Golfers will be forced to think beyond simple carry distances, with tee shots and approach shots potentially rolling 30, 40, or even 50 yards after landing. Players may regularly club down off the tee to avoid running through fairways and into deep bunkers or thick dune grass. This should place an increased emphasis on links experience, trajectory control, strategic driving, bogey avoidance, scrambling, patience, and the ability to use the ground instead of constantly attacking the course through the air. The wind may remain relatively consistent, but the combination of firm turf and unpredictable rollout will ensure that every poorly controlled shot has the potential to become a major problem.
Metrics That Matter
Strokes Gained Approach
Royal Birkdale is going to demand precise distance control, smart landing areas, and the ability to use the ground instead of simply firing directly at every flag. The firm conditions will create extra rollout, which means golfers must understand where the ball is going to finish after it lands. Strong approach players who can control trajectory and avoid the wrong sections of these greens should hold a major advantage.
Bogey Avoidance
This course can punish mistakes quickly, especially when tee shots find deep pot bunkers, dune grass, or poor approach angles. The winner will need to accept difficult pars and avoid turning one bad swing into a double bogey. I want golfers who protect their scorecards and remain patient when birdie opportunities are limited.
Good Drive Percentage
Players may frequently club down off the tee, so raw driving distance is not going to be the priority. Good Drive Percentage helps identify golfers who consistently leave themselves with a realistic chance to reach the green in regulation, even when they do not technically hit the fairway. At Royal Birkdale, keeping the ball in playable positions and away from the serious trouble matters more than simply hitting driver as far as possible.
Scrambling
Even the best ball strikers are going to miss greens on a firm links course with changing wind and unpredictable bounces. Golfers will face tight lies, deep bunkers, runoff areas, and unusual recovery shots that require creativity and touch. Strong scramblers can keep a difficult round together by turning likely bogeys into pars.
Three Putt Avoidance
The firm, undulating greens will leave players with plenty of long first putts and difficult speed control. Wind can also make putting more uncomfortable and create additional uncertainty on exposed greens. Avoiding unnecessary three putts will be critical because those dropped strokes can quickly destroy an otherwise solid round.
Approach Putt Performance
Royal Birkdale will place a premium on lag putting and leaving long first putts inside a manageable distance. Golfers may also choose to use the putter from several yards off the green, making touch and pace even more important. Strong approach putting should help players avoid stressful comeback putts and protect valuable pars throughout the week.
Links Experience and Comparable Course History
I will also place significant weight on golfers who have consistently performed well at Royal Liverpool, Royal Portrush, Royal St George’s, Carnoustie, Muirfield, St Andrews, and The Renaissance Club. These courses reward the same type of creativity, patience, trajectory control, and comfort with firm turf and unpredictable rollout. Experience on true links courses cannot completely replace current form, but it can separate golfers who understand this style of golf from those who are still trying to figure it out.
The Scottie Scheffler Conundrum
Frankie damn sure called it last week. Scottie Scheffler was the Fade of the Week at an absurd $14,000, and he went out and missed the cut for the first time in 78 starts. That was exactly the kind of ownership and pricing stand we are looking to make in DFS, but this week is a completely different situation.
DraftKings finally brought the price down to $13,300, and there is significantly more value available throughout the slate. The player pool reaches deep into the $5,000 and $6,000 ranges, which makes it much easier to build strong lineups around Scheffler without completely sacrificing the rest of the roster. Way to go, DraftKings.
This is also usually when I want to get back on Scottie. The moment people begin doubting him after one bad week is exactly when the ownership becomes more manageable and the field starts convincing itself that something is wrong. I am not buying that narrative. Scheffler remains the best golfer in the world, his tee-to-green game fits any course, and his ability to avoid bogeys and recover from difficult positions makes him an excellent fit for Royal Birkdale.
I am planning to be overweight on Scottie Scheffler this week. Last week was the right time to fade him because the price was ridiculous and the lineup construction was miserable. This week, the salary is more reasonable, the value is much stronger, and I want exposure before the field remembers exactly who the hell Scottie Scheffler is.
Elite Tier
Scottie Scheffler – $13,300 – Overweight
Rory McIlroy – $11,900 – Overweight
Rory remains the king of links golf and proved it again with a top 10 finish last week. He struggled during part of the weekend but surged late Sunday and nearly worked his way back into contention. When Rory is playing well at an Open Championship, he is going to be extremely difficult to beat.
Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,000 – Slightly Overweight
Fitzpatrick has played lights out golf throughout 2026 and enters Royal Birkdale after finishing tied for third at the Scottish Open. His accuracy, iron play, patience, and links experience give him an excellent profile for this course. I will be slightly overweight and continue riding one of the strongest seasons of his career.
Xander Schauffele – $9,800 – Overweight
Schauffele missed the cut last week, but that should help drive his ownership down at an extremely attractive salary. He remains an elite major championship player with proven links ability and the complete game required to handle Royal Birkdale. I am willing to overlook one poor week and take advantage of the potential ownership discount.
Ludvig Åberg – $9,300 – Underweight
The talent is undeniable, but I am beginning to question whether Åberg is ready to finish one of these major championships. His putting has been unreliable, and his around the green game remains a concern on a course that will demand creativity and difficult par saves. Royal Birkdale does not feel like the place where I want to trust those weaknesses.
Justin Rose – $9,100 – Overweight
Justin Rose always gets my attention at a major championship because his iron play and experience continue to give him legitimate upside. He finished tied for 11th at the U.S. Open and should be comfortable navigating another demanding championship setup. At $9,100, I want meaningful exposure.
Cameron Young – $9,000 – Slightly Underweight
Young still possesses enormous talent, but the results have not consistently matched it lately. His power creates upside, but his recent form and unreliable short game make him difficult to trust at Royal Birkdale. I will keep some exposure because of the ceiling, but I plan to remain slightly underweight.
Mid-Range Tier
Tyrrell Hatton – $8,900 – Overweight
Hatton did not have his normal approach game working last week, and his tee-to-green numbers were not anything special, yet he still managed to finish tied for 17th. He also played well at both the Masters and the U.S. Open, continuing to prove that he rises to the occasion in major championships. If the irons return to their normal level and the putter gets hot, Hatton has legitimate winning upside at Royal Birkdale.
Collin Morikawa – $8,700 – Slightly Overweight
Morikawa has dealt with injuries and inconsistent results, but he still performed well at the U.S. Open and looked even better at the Travelers. He should arrive rested, and the recent uncertainty could keep his ownership at a moderate level. This feels like a strong tournament spot to take a chance on a golfer with elite approach play and championship upside.
Chris Gotterup – $8,500 – With the Field
Gotterup continues to play excellent golf, following his victory at the John Deere with a tied for 11th finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. He faded slightly down the stretch last week, but his overall performance remained impressive, and he also finished third at last year’s Open Championship. He checks nearly every box, but the ownership should be significant, so I will stay with the field.
Bryson DeChambeau – $8,400 – Underweight
The salary has come down, and we all know the enormous upside Bryson possesses, but I was not impressed by what I saw at the U.S. Open. His approach numbers were atrocious, he lost strokes tee to green, and I am not convinced his imagination around the greens is ideal for this particular challenge. I will have some exposure because of the talent, but he remains a volatile, hit-or-miss option that I plan to be underweight on.
Wyndham Clark – $8,200 – Overweight
Clark has been playing phenomenal golf, yet people continue to avoid clicking his name because they do not recognize just how elite his current form has become. His recent results include finishes of first, third, 11th, first, fifth, 13th, and fourth at last year’s Open Championship. I am going to keep riding this horse until it finally bucks me off because the form and leverage remain too strong to ignore.
Shane Lowry – $7,900 – Slightly Overweight
Links golf is exactly what Lowry does, and Royal Birkdale should reward his creativity, patience, trajectory control, and short-game ability. There are plenty of sexier names surrounding him in this range, which could prevent his ownership from becoming overwhelming. I will be slightly overweight on one of the most accomplished links golfers in the field.
Brooks Koepka – $7,600 – Full Fade
Koepka enters this tournament in poor form with two consecutive missed cuts and a withdrawal in his recent results. He also has not shown much on links-style courses over the last several years, and his current game does not give me a reason to believe that changes this week. The name and major championship reputation are not enough for me, making him a full fade.
Min Woo Lee – $6,900 – Heavily Overweight
Min Woo has missed the cut in each of his last two appearances at this tournament, but I loved what I saw from him last week and believe he is beginning to find his form again. He gained nearly 14 total strokes on the field, posted positive numbers across the board, and produced outstanding tee-to-green statistics. Min Woo tends to get extremely hot once his game begins clicking, and I believe we are entering one of those stretches, making him one of my biggest plays of the week.
Ben Griffin – $6,800 – Underweight
Griffin remains in solid overall form, but I do not believe this style of links golf is the best fit for his game. Royal Birkdale will require creativity, trajectory control, and comfort dealing with firm surfaces and unpredictable bounces. I will have limited exposure, but I plan to remain underweight compared with the field.
Tom Kim – $6,800 – Overweight
Normally, I become cautious when ownership rises immediately after a golfer wins, but Tom Kim’s current run is impossible to dismiss. He followed a third-place finish at the U.S. Open by winning the Genesis Scottish Open, proving that the form and links-course fit are both legitimate. At only $6,800, I am willing to eat some ownership and remain overweight.
DFS Outsider Dart Plays
These are some cheaper golfers who can help complete a six-man lineup without completely sacrificing upside. I am looking for players in this range who can realistically push toward the top 20 and potentially find their way into the optimal lineup if everything comes together.
Harris English – $6,700
I faded English last week, but I am going right back to him at this price. He gained approximately 3.5 strokes tee to green despite missing the cut, with the putter being the main reason he failed to reach the weekend. We know he is capable of putting much better, making this a strong bounce-back opportunity with top 20 upside.
Akshay Bhatia – $6,600
Bhatia has produced positive numbers throughout his game over his last couple of tournaments. He is striking the ball well, gaining around the greens, and putting effectively. That complete profile gives him a believable path to a strong weekend at a very affordable salary.
Brian Harman – $6,600
Harman is a former Open champion who has already proven that his crafty game can succeed on a true links course. His approach play and work around the greens have looked good, and he possesses the patience and putting ability required to survive difficult conditions. If he can keep his tee shots in playable positions, he has enough upside to work his way into the optimal lineup.
Victor Perez – $6,400
I called Perez last week, and I would be stupid not to return to the well at this salary. He finished tied for ninth at the Genesis Scottish Open, gained throughout his game, and putted exceptionally well. The final round was not perfect, but his overall performance gives him another realistic path to a top 20 finish with top 10 upside.
Michael Thorbjornsen – $6,100
Thorbjornsen finished tied for seventh at the Genesis Scottish Open and enters this week with legitimate momentum. At only $6,100, he can create enough salary relief to help us reach an additional elite golfer without using a completely hopeless option. His current ball striking gives him meaningful upside at the price.
Thomas Detry – $6,100
Detry brings accuracy, greens-in-regulation ability, and enough putting upside to become relevant when everything cooperates. He has shown the ability to contend throughout a successful season and has produced several high finishes. At this salary, he offers a believable ceiling without forcing us to sacrifice the rest of the lineup.
Andy Sullivan – $5,500
Sullivan finished tied for 30th last week and continues to show that he understands how to navigate this style of golf. He is experienced, crafty, and comfortable manufacturing shots on firm links surfaces. I will mix in a small amount because he does not need to do anything extraordinary to pay off a $5,500 salary.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Jon Rahm – $9,700
Hey meatballs, the only Ram I trust this week has four wheels and gives you a warranty. I wish DraftKings gave us the same protection with Jon Rahm, because right now the confidence just is not there. He looks more like a substitute teacher walking into a classroom full of loudmouth eighth graders than a major champion ready to take control of Royal Birkdale.
We all know the upside. We know what Rahm has done on LIV, we know he can succeed on a links course, and we know that when he gets rolling, he can bully his way through almost any field in golf. But his last two starts have given Frankie absolutely no reason to trust him, with a missed cut at the U.S. Open followed by a 36th-place finish at the Genesis Scottish Open after barely surviving the cut.
Could he suddenly wake up and contend? Of course he could. But at $9,700, Frankie needs to see more than a famous name, a history of success, and a whole lot of people hoping the old Rahm shows up. Until that confidence returns, this Ram is staying parked in the garage. Capisce?
Final Thoughts
I have spent plenty of time talking shit about the DraftKings pricing guy, but I have to give him credit this week. This is a much more enjoyable slate to build, with real value throughout the player pool and enough flexibility to construct lineups in several different ways. For future reference, when there are not any golfers priced below $6,000, keep everybody at $13,000 or less so we can actually build competitive lineups without forcing complete garbage into our lineups in multiple spots.
This week gives us multiple pathways to success. There are several elite golfers at the top who deserve serious consideration, plenty of strong options in the middle, and enough affordable players with legitimate upside to make stars and scrubs builds possible. Balanced lineups can work, leaving salary on the table can work, and stacking multiple big names can work. The key will be finding the right combinations and, as always, playing the ownership game.
When I build a large number of lineups, I want my exposure to reflect both how much I like a golfer with regards to how popular I expect him to be. The players I believe in the most should appear more often, while the golfers I like less should be reduced or removed completely. I am also looking for leverage throughout every pricing range by identifying golfers who can outperform more popular options at a similar salary.
This is the type of tournament where I want to fit as many of the big dogs as possible. I will have plenty of lineups featuring either Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy, but I will also build from Matt Fitzpatrick, explore more balanced constructions, and mix in several full midrange combinations. There is no single correct way to attack this slate, which is exactly what makes it so much fun.
We are carrying real confidence into The Open after an excellent week at the Genesis Scottish Open. Now the goal is to stay disciplined, trust the research, and identify the golfers who can survive the firm conditions, avoid the pot bunkers, and repeatedly get up and down when Royal Birkdale starts tearing scorecards apart. Let’s go take down a motherfucking GPP and get this thing done.
It only takes one
