After the absolute grind fest we just watched at the PGA Championship, we now head to the complete opposite end of the spectrum at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Last week was survival golf with tight fairways, brutal rough, punishing greens, and a winning score that stayed far lower than what we normally see on the PGA Tour. This week should look completely different.
TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 that stretches roughly 7,500 yards, but this course is far less intimidating than the number suggests. The fairways are wide open, the greens are much more forgiving, and players are going to attack pins aggressively all four days. Mid 60s rounds should not be difficult to find if conditions cooperate, and it would not be surprising to see a few golfers dip into the low 60s during the tournament if the putter gets rolling. This is the type of layout where confidence on the greens can completely change a player’s week overnight.
The field itself also takes a noticeable step down from what we just saw at the PGA Championship. Yes, Scottie Scheffler is here, and honestly, this tournament almost feels like Scottie versus the field at this point, but outside of him, this is not a loaded event. You still have talented names like Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and Si Woo Kim, along with several solid mid tier options, but compared to the elite fields we have been dealing with lately, this tournament feels much thinner overall.
That is part of what makes this slate so awkward from a DraftKings perspective. DraftKings priced Scottie Scheffler at an absurd 14,800 this week, which completely changes roster construction. At that salary, the conversation is no longer simply about whether Scottie is the best golfer in the field because everybody already knows he is. The real question becomes whether sacrificing almost your entire lineup structure for one golfer is actually worth it in a weak field birdie fest where random names can suddenly spike with hot putting weeks.
Vegas is still telling us Scottie loses this tournament more often than he wins it, and that is the uncomfortable reality many people are ignoring when they blindly jam him into every lineup. If Scottie wins, he likely needs to separate from the field in a major way to justify that price tag. Meanwhile, balanced roster constructions loaded with multiple golfers in the 8K and 9K range suddenly become extremely interesting on a course where scoring volatility can get completely out of control, making this week feel less about identifying the perfect golfer and more about identifying the correct roster construction.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
Even in a birdie fest, players still need to consistently create opportunities. With the wide fairways at TPC Craig Ranch, golfers who can pile up quality approach opportunities and stay aggressive throughout the round should separate themselves quickly. This is not the type of course where players are constantly scrambling for survival. Players who are striking it cleanly from tee to green can attack all four days.
Strokes Gained Around the Green
Although this course is much more forgiving than what we just saw at the PGA Championship, around the green play still matters when scoring gets this low. Saving pars after an aggressive miss and keeping momentum alive can be the difference between a solid round and a round that completely stalls out. In birdie fest tournaments, maintaining scoring rhythm becomes extremely important.
Strokes Gained Putting
This may end up being the most important metric on the board this week. We are likely going to see a leaderboard filled with players rolling in putts from everywhere, and on a course where low scoring is expected, golfers who catch fire with the flat stick can completely change the tournament in a single round. This feels like one of those weeks where a random player can suddenly gain six or seven strokes putting and contend out of nowhere.
Scoring Average
With conditions expected to favor scoring, players who consistently take advantage of easier setups deserve extra attention this week. There is a difference between golfers who survive difficult tournaments and golfers who actively hunt birdies. This event should reward aggression, confidence, and players willing to continue attacking when scoring opportunities appear.
Approach From 250 to 275 Yards
Even with the generous layout, players are still going to face several longer approach shots throughout the week, especially on some of the longer par 5s and extended par 4s. Golfers who can control distance and consistently hit greens from this range may quietly create additional eagle and birdie opportunities that separate them from the field.
The Scottie Scheffler Conundrum
As stated before, this week really comes down to Scottie Scheffler and whether there is enough value throughout the rest of the player pool to make his salary worth it if he does go out and win this tournament. At 14,800, Scottie is not simply expensive. He completely changes the way every lineup has to be built. If he wins, you are likely going to need several cheaper golfers outperforming expectations while also needing some of the upper mid tier golfers like Si Woo Kim, Jordan Spieth, and Brooks Koepka to stay outside the very top of the leaderboard.
That is where this slate starts getting uncomfortable.
I am not going full fade on Scottie because the reality is he absolutely can go nuclear against a weaker field like this and bury everybody by five strokes. I still want exposure in case the right value pieces hit alongside him, but I am definitely going to be underweight compared to the field. Right now, I expect to land somewhere in the 10 to 15 percent range on Scottie builds while focusing much more heavily on balanced constructions throughout the middle of the board.
Scottie Scheffler 14800 underweight
The talent gap between Scottie and the rest of this field is obvious, but DraftKings pushed the salary to an absolutely absurd level this week. He likely needs to win and completely separate from the field to truly justify this price tag. I will still have exposure because fading him entirely against a field this weak feels dangerous, but I am not willing to sacrifice my entire player pool flexibility to go overweight.
Si Woo Kim 9900 overweight
This setup fits Si Woo extremely well. Strong tee to green game, enough creativity around the greens, and the ability to get hot with the putter in lower scoring environments. He feels like one of the safest upper tier options on the board while still carrying winning upside.
Jordan Spieth 9800 on par
Spieth remains one of the most volatile golfers on the slate. The creativity and putting upside make him extremely dangerous in a birdie fest, but the inconsistency is always lurking. I expect to stay close to the field because if he catches momentum early, he can absolutely contend here.
Brooks Koepka 9600 underweight
Brooks obviously has the talent to contend anywhere, but I think ownership may be inflated simply because of the name value. The short game has improved lately, but this event is likely going to require consistent birdie conversion on shorter putts, and that still concerns me enough to stay slightly underweight.
Ryo Hisatsune 9300 overweight
I love the overall fit here for Ryo. The ball striking continues to improve, he does enough around the greens, and he has shown the ability to gain strokes quickly with the putter. In a weaker field where scoring should be aggressive, this feels like a strong spot for him.
Pearson Cootie 9100 overweight
This tournament should reward aggressive players willing to continue chasing birdies instead of protecting pars. Cootie fits that style perfectly and has enough upside to absolutely smash this salary in a weaker field event.
Michael Thorbjornsen 9000 overweight
The talent is obvious, and this course allows him to stay aggressive without constantly worrying about punishment off the tee. The biggest question remains whether he can keep scoring once the pressure builds over the weekend, but the upside is undeniable.
Sungjae Im 8700 on par
Sungjae’s all around game profiles well for this setup, especially if conditions stay soft and scoring remains low. I am not forcing exposure, but he feels properly priced and certainly has top ten upside in this field.
Christian Bezuidenhout 8300 overweight
The short game and putting are both elite enough to keep him alive even if the ball striking is only average. If the irons cooperate just enough, he can absolutely work himself into contention here.
Eric Cole 8100 overweight
I am not overly concerned about the driving this week because this course is far more forgiving off the tee than most PGA Tour setups. His approach game remains solid, the short game is excellent, and he is more than capable of catching fire with the putter for four straight days.
Blades Brown 7800 overweight
This feels like the type of setup where his aggressive style can really pay off. In a weaker field birdie fest, confidence matters, and Brown has enough scoring upside to surprise people if the putter cooperates.
Kevin Roy 7600 overweight
Strong value range option with enough upside to contend in this weaker field. He fits the type of scoring environment we are likely to see this week.
Doug Ghim 7500 overweight
Quietly profiles very well for this course setup. If the putter behaves even slightly, he could easily outperform this salary.
Adrian Dumont de Chassart 7400 overweight
The short game and putting combination make him extremely interesting in a birdie fest setup. If he keeps himself in position off the tee, he can absolutely generate enough scoring opportunities to matter this week.
Bo Hossler 7300 overweight
Hossler makes a lot of sense for this type of tournament because when the putter gets rolling, he can pile up birdies quickly. The around the green game is solid, he avoids wasting opportunities with careless three putts, and this setup should allow him to stay aggressive throughout the week. In a weaker field birdie fest where scoring volatility can take over, Hossler has the type of profile that can absolutely outperform salary.
Taylor Moore 7200 overweight
The short game and putting upside stand out immediately at this price. If the approach play cooperates enough, he can absolutely outperform salary expectations.
David Skinns 6900 overweight
One of my favorite cheaper value plays on the slate. The around the green game and putting are both excellent, and this tournament could absolutely reward players capable of getting hot on the greens.
Chandler Phillips 6700 overweight
Very interesting putting upside in this type of event. If he starts seeing putts drop early, he could easily ride momentum into a strong finish.
Kevin Streelman 6400 overweight
Extremely interesting dart throw because he does not need to overpower this course to succeed. The short game and putting are still strong enough to help him outperform this salary if things break correctly.
The Scottie Scheffler Conundrum
As stated before, this week really comes down to Scottie Scheffler and whether there is enough value throughout the rest of the player pool to make his salary worth it if he does go out and win this tournament. At 14,800, Scottie is not simply expensive. He completely changes the way every lineup has to be built. If he wins, you are likely going to need several cheaper golfers outperforming expectations while also needing some of the upper mid tier golfers like Si Woo Kim, Jordan Spieth, and Brooks Koepka to stay outside the very top of the leaderboard.
That is where this slate starts getting uncomfortable.
I am not going full fade on Scottie because the reality is he absolutely can go nuclear against a weaker field like this and bury everybody by five strokes. I still want exposure in case the right value pieces hit alongside him, but I am definitely going to be underweight compared to the field. Right now, I expect to land somewhere in the 10 to 15 percent range on Scottie builds while focusing much more heavily on balanced constructions throughout the middle of the board.
Scottie Scheffler 14800 underweight
The talent gap between Scottie and the rest of this field is obvious, but DraftKings pushed the salary to an absolutely absurd level this week. He likely needs to win and completely separate from the field to truly justify this price tag. I will still have exposure because fading him entirely against a field this weak feels dangerous, but I am not willing to sacrifice my entire player pool flexibility to go overweight.
Si Woo Kim 9900 overweight
This setup fits Si Woo extremely well. Strong tee to green game, enough creativity around the greens, and the ability to get hot with the putter in lower scoring environments. He feels like one of the safest upper tier options on the board while still carrying winning upside.
Jordan Spieth 9800 on par
Spieth remains one of the most volatile golfers on the slate. The creativity and putting upside make him extremely dangerous in a birdie fest, but the inconsistency is always lurking. I expect to stay close to the field because if he catches momentum early, he can absolutely contend here.
Brooks Koepka 9600 underweight
Brooks obviously has the talent to contend anywhere, but I think ownership may be inflated simply because of the name value. The short game has improved lately, but this event is likely going to require consistent birdie conversion on shorter putts, and that still concerns me enough to stay slightly underweight.
Ryo Hisatsune 9300 overweight
I love the overall fit here for Ryo. The ball striking continues to improve, he does enough around the greens, and he has shown the ability to gain strokes quickly with the putter. In a weaker field where scoring should be aggressive, this feels like a strong spot for him.
Pearson Cootie 9100 overweight
This tournament should reward aggressive players willing to continue chasing birdies instead of protecting pars. Cootie fits that style perfectly and has enough upside to absolutely smash this salary in a weaker field event.
Michael Thorbjornsen 9000 overweight
The talent is obvious, and this course allows him to stay aggressive without constantly worrying about punishment off the tee. The biggest question remains whether he can keep scoring once the pressure builds over the weekend, but the upside is undeniable.
Sungjae Im 8700 on par
Sungjae’s all around game profiles well for this setup, especially if conditions stay soft and scoring remains low. I am not forcing exposure, but he feels properly priced and certainly has top ten upside in this field.
Christian Bezuidenhout 8300 overweight
The short game and putting are both elite enough to keep him alive even if the ball striking is only average. If the irons cooperate just enough, he can absolutely work himself into contention here.
Eric Cole 8100 overweight
I am not overly concerned about the driving this week because this course is far more forgiving off the tee than most PGA Tour setups. His approach game remains solid, the short game is excellent, and he is more than capable of catching fire with the putter for four straight days.
Blades Brown 7800 overweight
This feels like the type of setup where his aggressive style can really pay off. In a weaker field birdie fest, confidence matters, and Brown has enough scoring upside to surprise people if the putter cooperates.
Steven Jaeger 7700 overweight
Jaeger feels like a very strong fit for this type of scoring environment. He can absolutely get rolling with the putter, the short game is reliable, and the approach play is solid enough to consistently create birdie chances. He also does enough off the tee to stay aggressive on a course like this, and I definitely expect to have exposure to him throughout my builds.
Kevin Roy 7600 overweight
Roy feels like a very interesting fit for this type of event because the short game and putting upside are both strong enough to create real scoring potential in a birdie fest. He is especially solid on shorter putts, does very good work around the greens, and while the irons can sometimes look inconsistent, they are more than capable of holding up if he is striking it well for the week. He also drives the ball well enough to take advantage of the open layout at TPC Craig Ranch, and if the approach play cooperates, this feels like the type of tournament where he can absolutely pile up birdies.
Doug Ghim 7500 overweight
Quietly profiles very well for this course setup. If the putter behaves even slightly, he could easily outperform this salary.
Adrian Dumont de Chassart 7400 overweight
The short game and putting combination make him extremely interesting in a birdie fest setup. If he keeps himself in position off the tee, he can absolutely generate enough scoring opportunities to matter this week.
Bo Hossler 7300 overweight
Hossler makes a lot of sense for this type of tournament because when the putter gets rolling, he can pile up birdies quickly. The around the green game is solid, he avoids wasting opportunities with careless three putts, and this setup should allow him to stay aggressive throughout the week. In a weaker field birdie fest where scoring volatility can take over, Hossler has the type of profile that can absolutely outperform salary.
Sam Ryder 7200 overweight
If Ryder is striking the ball well and consistently giving himself birdie opportunities, this feels like the exact type of tournament where he can make noise. The approach game can get very solid when he is locked in, and once he starts seeing putts fall, he is capable of heating up quickly on the greens. In a low scoring event where putting upside becomes amplified, Ryder has the type of profile that could absolutely turn into a strong value play at this salary.
Taylor Moore 7200 overweight
The short game and putting upside stand out immediately at this price. If the approach play cooperates enough, he can absolutely outperform salary expectations.
David Skinns 6900 overweight
One of my favorite cheaper value plays on the slate. The around the green game and putting are both excellent, and this tournament could absolutely reward players capable of getting hot on the greens.
Chandler Phillips 6700 overweight
Very interesting putting upside in this type of event. If he starts seeing putts drop early, he could easily ride momentum into a strong finish.
A.J. Ewart 6700 overweight
Ewart feels like the type of golfer who is quietly waiting for a breakout performance in the right setup, and this tournament could absolutely be that spot. The putting stands out immediately, especially on shorter putts where he has been extremely consistent. He is also strong out of the sand, scrambles well enough to keep momentum alive, and the approach game looks far better than people may realize at this price range. In a weaker field birdie fest where confidence on the greens can completely swing a tournament, Ewart has the type of profile that could easily outperform salary expectations.
Kevin Streelman 6400 overweight
Extremely interesting dart throw because he does not need to overpower this course to succeed. The short game and putting are still strong enough to help him outperform this salary if things break correctly.
There honestly is not much else to say about this slate. This week is going to come down to roster construction, leverage, and finding the right combination of golfers who can catch fire with the putter for four straight days. Ownership is going to condense heavily around certain names, especially with the way DraftKings handled pricing at the top, so finding golfers in similar price ranges with comparable upside could end up being the difference maker in large field tournaments.
Do not be afraid to build differently this week. Balanced builds make a lot of sense, leaving a little salary on the table makes sense, and taking shots on lower owned dart plays in a volatile birdie fest also makes sense. This is not the type of tournament where you need to play everything safe and perfectly. You are looking for leverage spots, scoring upside, and golfers capable of getting nuclear with the putter if things click early.
Good luck this week, and let’s go take down a freaking GPP.
It only takes one.
