The PGA Tour heads north of the border this week for the 2026 RBC Canadian Open, and this slate has the kind of chaos that should get DFS players fired up. There is no Scottie Scheffler, no Rory McIlroy, no Xander Schauffele, and no Ludvig Aberg, but this is still a strong field with plenty of names capable of winning. Instead of one obvious superstar soaking up ownership, we get a wide open board where lineup construction, leverage, and a little bit of guts could make all the difference.
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley is a long Par 70 that measures 7,389 yards and was designed by Doug Carrick. This is not some short positional track where everybody is just trying to plod around and make pars. The fairways are generous, the greens are big, and players are going to have chances to attack if they are sharp with the driver and dialed in with the irons. Even with only two par fives, last year showed us that scoring is absolutely available here, with Ryan Fox defeating Sam Burns in a playoff at eighteen under par and more than thirty golfers finishing at ten under or better.
That is what makes this course so interesting from a DraftKings perspective. It is long enough to reward power, forgiving enough to let aggressive players swing freely, and scoreable enough to bring some surprising names into contention if they catch fire. Last year had plenty of unexpected players hanging around the top of the leaderboard, which tells me this is not a week to blindly chase name value. We need golfers who can create birdie chances, handle longer approach shots, and take advantage of the scoring opportunities when they show up.
Before we fully turn the page to Canada, last week at the Memorial was one of those frustrating weeks where the process was better than the final result. Not having any J.T. Poston was ultimately the undoing of the slate, especially with how important he became in tournament winning builds. There were still plenty of sharp pieces in the player pool, but Alex Smalley was the one that absolutely crushed me. I had a large percentage of him, and he went from one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour to looking like he had complete amnesia and played like complete fucking dog shit.
That type of performance was absolutely fucking ridiculous considering the form he had been showing. Alex Smalley had been playing some of the best golf of his career, consistently gaining strokes and looking like one of the sharper value plays on the board. Instead, he was basically one of the worst players in the field. We write that off as an anomaly for now and hope it does not become a trend, because he is still a talented golfer and one bad week should not erase months of strong play.
Metrics That Matter
TPC Toronto presents a unique challenge because it combines length with scoring opportunities. At nearly 7,400 yards and playing as a Par 70, players will be forced to hit a significant number of long approach shots throughout the week. Several of the Par 4s stretch to nearly 500 yards, while a few others exceed the 500 yard mark altogether. The two Par 5s sit on the opening and closing holes, meaning golfers will spend the majority of the tournament navigating a long stretch of Par 4s that place an emphasis on driving distance and long iron play. Despite the length, the wide fairways and larger greens allow players to be aggressive off the tee, creating a layout where golfers can swing freely and attack when opportunities present themselves.
This is not a golf course where players can simply bunt the ball around the property and hope to survive. The golfers who succeed here will likely be strong drivers of the golf ball, elite long iron players, and players capable of converting scoring opportunities when they present themselves. When building my player pool this week, I am focusing on golfers who can create birdie chances, gain strokes off the tee, excel with their long irons, and take advantage of the demanding collection of Par 4s that make up the majority of this layout.
Strokes Gained Off The Tee
TPC Toronto is one of the longer courses players will face all season, measuring nearly 7,400 yards. Fortunately for the bombers, the fairways are generous and allow players to be aggressive with the driver. Golfers who can gain strokes off the tee through a combination of distance and solid ball striking should create a significant advantage for themselves throughout the week.
Long Iron Proximity (200 Plus Yards)
This is the metric that stood out to me most when studying the scorecard. TPC Toronto features several lengthy Par 4s that will force players into a steady diet of long approach shots. Golfers who excel from 200 to 225 yards and 225 to 250 yards should generate more birdie opportunities while avoiding the difficult pars that often result from poor long iron play. If there is one under the radar stat that could separate players this week, this is it.
Strokes Gained Approach
Distance can get players into position, but approach play is what ultimately determines who climbs the leaderboard. Last year’s event produced plenty of scoring opportunities, and golfers who consistently attack flags and create quality birdie looks should once again find themselves in contention. Strong iron play remains one of the most reliable predictors of success on the PGA Tour, and this week should be no different.
Opportunities Gained
With scoring expected to be available throughout the golf course, I want golfers who consistently give themselves chances to make birdies. Opportunities Gained is one of my favorite statistics because it identifies players who repeatedly place themselves in scoring position. More opportunities generally lead to more birdies, and more birdies lead to more DraftKings points.
Birdie Or Better Percentage
More than thirty golfers finished at ten under par or better during last year’s tournament, proving that players can go low at TPC Toronto. This is not a week where I want golfers simply trying to survive. I want players capable of putting together birdie streaks and taking advantage of the scoring conditions. Birdie Or Better Percentage helps identify the golfers most likely to do exactly that.
Par 4 Scoring
With only two Par 5s on the scorecard, much of this tournament will be decided on the Par 4s. Several of them stretch well beyond 475 yards, placing even greater importance on driving distance, long iron play, and overall ball striking. Golfers who consistently gain strokes on longer Par 4s should have an opportunity to separate themselves from the field this week.
Building Around Balanced Pricing
One of the most interesting aspects of this week’s slate is how aggressively DraftKings adjusted the pricing. With no Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, or Ludvig Aberg in the field, a large portion of the player pool has been pushed well above their typical salary ranges. Several golfers who normally live in the upper $6K and lower $7K range have been elevated into the $8K range, while others who are usually found in the mid $7Ks have suddenly found themselves priced in the $9K range.
That does not necessarily make those golfers bad plays. In many cases, the price increases are justified by recent form, course fit, or the overall strength of the field. The challenge for DFS players is determining which golfers have truly earned those elevated price tags and which golfers may simply be benefiting from a flatter pricing structure.
I expect many players to start their builds with two golfers from the top tier before filling in the rest of their lineups. There is certainly nothing wrong with that approach, but it may also create an opportunity to be different. Balanced builds, unique roster constructions, and even leaving some salary on the table could become valuable strategies this week, especially if ownership condenses around a handful of popular names.
This feels like one of those slates where there are multiple ways to build a winning lineup. The goal is not simply identifying the best golfers. The goal is identifying the right combination of golfers while building lineups that separate from the field.
Elite Tier Targets
Matt Fitzpatrick, $10,500 – Overweight
I expect Matt Fitzpatrick to be one of my highest exposed golfers in the upper tier this week. His tee to green game continues to trend in the right direction, his approach play has been solid, and this feels like the type of tournament where he can build momentum heading into next week’s major championship. While much of his success this week may come down to whether the putter cooperates, I love the overall profile. He has the experience, the talent, and the all around game to contend against this field, and I expect him to be firmly in the mix come Sunday.
Sam Burns, $10,100 – Underweight
This has nothing to do with Sam Burns as a golfer and everything to do with ownership. Burns lost in a playoff here last year, finished fourth at the Memorial, and checks nearly every box that DFS players are looking for this week. The combination of recent form, course history, and pricing is likely to make him one of the most popular golfers on the slate. I still expect to have exposure, but I will likely come in under the field. If ownership pushes toward the upper twenties, I am willing to take a stand and look elsewhere for leverage.
Collin Morikawa, $9,900 – Overweight
If there is a golfer I am looking to pivot to from Sam Burns, it is Collin Morikawa. Prior to his recent stretch of disappointing finishes, Morikawa was playing some of the best golf on the planet. The biggest question is whether the back issues that surfaced a few weeks ago are behind him. If they are, this feels like an ideal setup for his game. His ball striking remains elite, his approach play is among the best on Tour, and he should see plenty of opportunities to attack these larger greens. I expect Morikawa to be one of my favorite plays in the entire field.
Brooks Koepka, $9,500 – Overweight
I continue to see signs that Brooks Koepka is getting closer. While the results have not fully arrived yet, the underlying game appears to be trending in the right direction. The distance is still there, the ball striking remains strong, and perhaps most importantly, the putter finally showed signs of life in his most recent start. This course should allow him to be aggressive off the tee, and if the irons cooperate, I believe he has legitimate win equity against this field. I will gladly take some shots on Koepka this week.
Nicolai Hojgaard, $9,100 – Overweight
The missed cut last week is likely going to scare away a portion of the field, and that is exactly what makes Nicolai Hojgaard so interesting. When his game is clicking, he possesses one of the highest ceilings in this entire field. He is long off the tee, gains strokes in multiple categories, and has already shown several top finishes this season against stronger competition. The recent form looks ugly on the surface, but I am far more interested in the upside than the floor. If ownership comes in lower than expected, I will gladly be overweight and bet on the talent.
Mid Tier Targets
Keith Mitchell, $8,200 – Overweight
One of my favorite targets in the mid range this week is Keith Mitchell. He finished T27 here last year and checks a lot of boxes for this golf course. He is long off the tee, gains strokes tee to green, and has the type of long iron game that should fit TPC Toronto very well. The biggest question is always the putter. If he can create enough opportunities and see a few putts fall early, I think he has legitimate top ten upside at a very reasonable price point.
Eric Cole, $8,000 – Overweight
Eric Cole missed the cut here last year, but I am not putting much weight on that result. His game has evolved significantly, and he enters this tournament playing some of the best golf of his career. Over the last several weeks he has gained strokes in virtually every category, including off the tee, approach, tee to green, and putting. The putter has been especially impressive, and perhaps most encouraging is the improvement we have seen off the tee. This course should not heavily penalize him for an occasional missed fairway, allowing him to lean on the strengths of his game. I expect ownership to be healthy, but I will still be overweight.
Taylor Pendrith, $7,700 – Overweight
This course feels like a natural fit for Taylor Pendrith. He is one of the longer hitters in the field, should have plenty of opportunities to attack these Par 4s, and has shown the ability to gain strokes tee to green against strong competition. Like several players in this range, the putter will likely determine just how high he can climb up the leaderboard. The encouraging part is that he should give himself plenty of birdie opportunities throughout the week.
Aldrich Potgieter, $7,400 – Overweight
If there is one golfer in this range who can absolutely destroy a golf course with his driver, it is Aldrich Potgieter. Length matters here, and few players in this field possess more raw power. His recent form has also been encouraging, gaining strokes on approach in two of his last three starts while showing improvement with the putter. The upside is enormous, and this feels like the type of course where he can take full advantage of his strengths.
Haotong Li, $7,300 – Overweight
Haotong Li has quietly become one of my favorite values in this range. He has not played this course before, but I like the combination of distance, solid ball striking, and reliable tee to green play. At this price tag, we do not need a victory. A top fifteen finish would be more than enough to make him a valuable piece in tournament lineups, and I believe that outcome is very much within reach.
DFS Outsider Plays
Zac Blair Buchowicz, $7,300 – Overweight
Zachary Buchowicz continues to show solid form entering this week. The tee to green game has been consistent, the approach numbers have been encouraging, and he has quietly put together several strong performances. He is unlikely to generate much attention from the field, which only adds to the appeal in large field tournaments.
Tom Kim, $7,200 – Overweight
Tom Kim missed the cut here last year, but I am willing to look past that. The ball striking remains solid, the approach play continues to be one of the strongest parts of his game, and this price tag is simply too appealing for a player with his talent level. If the putter cooperates, he has the ability to outperform this salary by a wide margin.
Austin Smotherman, $7,100 – Overweight
I expect to have plenty of Austin Smotherman this week. The ball striking has been solid, the ownership should remain manageable, and his overall profile fits what I am looking for on this golf course. He does not need to contend for the win to pay off this price tag, but I believe he has the ability to surprise people if things break his way.
Jesper Svensson, $7,000 – Overweight
Jesper Svensson finished T18 here last year and brings plenty of distance off the tee. The key for him will be the irons. If he can consistently give himself birdie opportunities, he has already shown that this course can fit his game. At this salary, I am more than willing to take some shots.
Austin Eckroat, $7,000 – Overweight
The appeal with Austin Eckroat starts with the iron play. He is capable of gaining strokes on approach, and his tee to green game gives him a solid foundation for success. Like several players in this range, the biggest question is whether he can convert enough opportunities with the putter. If he does, he has the upside to outperform his salary.
Jackson Suber, $7,000 – Overweight
Jackson Suber finished T18 here last season and enters with a skill set that fits what we are looking for this week. He is a strong iron player, does a good job finding greens, and consistently gives himself opportunities to score. Opportunity often leads to DraftKings points, and that makes him an intriguing tournament option at a very affordable price.
Frankie’s Fade Of The Week
Hey meatballs, this week’s fade comes courtesy of Wyndham Clark. Now I know exactly what you’re gonna tell me. He won the Byron Nelson. He just finished third at the Memorial. He’s bombing drives all over the planet. The course is long. The fairways are wide. Everything points toward another big week. On paper, it looks like the perfect setup, which is exactly why Frankie is heading in the opposite direction.
Everybody is going to be on Wyndham Clark this week. The DFS guys love him. The betting guys love him. The golf guys love him. My barber loves him. The guy making my rigatoni loves him. Every sign points in the same direction, and when that happens, Frankie starts getting nervous. Maybe he wins. Maybe he finishes second. Maybe he makes me look like a complete idiot. It would not be the first time. But if I am going to take a stand against one of the most popular golfers on the slate, this is the spot.
The recent form is undeniable, and the course fit looks fantastic. That is exactly the type of situation where Frankie likes to bet against the crowd. While everyone else is chasing another big finish, Frankie is betting that this is the week the magic runs out. My prediction is that instead of spending the weekend climbing the leaderboard, Wyndham Clark is going to be spending the weekend at the Wyndham while everybody else is out there making birdies. Frankie thinks he’ll be kicked back in his hotel room watching Titanic on AMC, and if you ask me, that’s the only thing that’s gonna be sinking around him this weekend.
I got more GPP wins than I got ex wives, and trust me, that’s saying something. Capisce?
Final Thoughts
This week feels less about finding the perfect golfer and more about finding the right combination of golfers. The pricing is balanced, ownership should be spread out, and there are multiple ways to build competitive lineups. You do not need six bombers. You do not need six elite putters. You do not need six golfers that fit the exact same mold. What you need is a lineup full of players who have a realistic path to outperforming their salary and putting together the type of tournament that can end up in the optimal lineup.
Distance should certainly help at TPC Toronto, but I would be careful about overemphasizing it. There are plenty of ways to score on this golf course. Strong iron players can compete. Great tee to green players can compete. Players who consistently create opportunities can compete. At the end of the day, the putter can get hot for just about anybody. I would rather focus on golfers who are giving themselves chances and trust the scoring to follow.
One thing that should make lineup construction a little easier is that eliminating a large portion of the field is fairly straightforward. There are plenty of golfers who simply do not fit the profile we are looking for this week. Once you narrow the player pool, the focus becomes finding the right build. Start at the top. Start in the middle. Build from the bottom up. Try one stud. Try two studs. Try no studs. Explore different lineup constructions and see where the combinations lead you.
Ownership remains an important piece of the puzzle. If a golfer is attracting massive ownership, ask yourself whether the reward justifies the risk. Look for opportunities to be different without sacrificing upside. Consider leaving some salary on the table. Sometimes that means leaving a few hundred dollars. Sometimes it means leaving significantly more. There is no perfect formula, but unique lineups are often the difference between a solid week and a tournament winning week.
The encouraging part is that the process has been good. We have been identifying strong plays. We have been finding leverage opportunities. We have been putting ourselves in position. The next step is simply putting all of those pieces together in the same lineup at the same time. Stay disciplined. Trust the process. Stick to your convictions. The winning lineup is in this player pool somewhere.
It only takes one.
