Martinsville Speedway
Welcome to Martinsville Speedway, the shortest track on the circuit and the one that turns grown men into absolute lunatics once the green flag drops. This is not finesse. This is not clean racing. This is 500 laps of brake rotors glowing, tempers boiling, and bumpers being used exactly the way they were designed.
You do not pass clean at Martinsville. You move people. You lean on them. You take the corner, and if they are in your way, they are getting moved. That is just how it works here, and every single driver in the field knows it before they even unload the car.
Fights on pit road. Payback that has been brewing for months. Drivers getting dumped for wins, for points, for pride. This track does not forget, and neither do the guys behind the wheel.
The track itself is simple on paper and brutal in execution. A tight paperclip layout measuring just over half a mile, with long straightaways and flat, tight corners that force heavy braking and perfect entry. If you miss your mark here, even slightly, you are getting freight trained and likely moved out of the groove within a lap or two.
We are looking at a 500 lap race, which means dominator points are everything this week. Laps led. Fast laps. Track position. If you are not up front controlling this race, you are probably not ending up in the optimal.
Last season gave us two very different looks at how this place can play out. Denny Hamlin took down the spring race, doing what he always seems to do here which is control the chaos and put himself in position late. Then in the fall, William Byron absolutely put on a clinic, leading 304 laps and dominating the race from the front without ever really being challenged. Two completely different paths. Same result. Control the race, control the slate.
Coming into this week, the storyline is pretty clear. Tyler Reddick is not just running hot, he is on a full blown tear. Four wins in the first six races of the season, and he is starting to separate himself from the field in a big way. Week after week, he is finding speed, finding track position, and finishing the job.
The only guy who has really shown the ability to hang with him right now is Denny Hamlin, and there might not be a better place for him to make a statement than right here at Martinsville. This is his playground. This is where experience matters. This is where knowing how to manage traffic, control the pace, and pick your moments can separate you from the field.
And if Reddick thinks he is just going to roll in here and control another race, he is going to find out real quick that Martinsville plays by a different set of rules. This track will test patience, punish mistakes, and reward drivers who are willing to get their hands dirty when it matters most. Because this one is never clean.
How to Read the Data
This week we are keeping it simple. The first table lists drivers ranked by average finish at Martinsville Speedway, along with their salary, laps led, DNFs, driver rating, and starting position. DNFs are not part of the scoring and are only there for context, since a few wrecks or mechanical issues can skew a driver’s average finish. The second table converts the key categories into a point system so we can compare drivers quickly. Average finish, laps led, driver rating, and starting position are all ranked across the field and split into thirds, with the top third earning 3 points, the middle third earning 2 points, and the bottom third earning 1 point. Starting position is flipped, since drivers starting deeper in the field have more opportunity to gain positions. Laps led is weighted heavier this week, with the top 5 earning 4 points due to the importance of dominator points at this track. We are also adding a bonus category for wins, where each win earns 1 additional point. We will also track stage points over the last six races at Martinsville Speedway to give additional context on which drivers consistently run up front throughout the race. Once all points are assigned, they are added together to give us a clear snapshot of which drivers have the strongest overall profile for this slate.
| Driver | Salary | Start | Avg Finish | Wins | Driver Rating | DNFs | Stage Points | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | $10500 | 13 | 3.7 | 1 | 112.9 | 0 | 42 | 187 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10700 | 12 | 4.5 | 2 | 109.1 | 0 | 42 | 354 |
| Chase Elliott | $9700 | 10 | 6.5 | 0 | 108.1 | 0 | 45 | 318 |
| Joey Logano | $9000 | 9 | 6.5 | 0 | 94.9 | 0 | 40 | 122 |
| Denny Hamlin | $11000 | 1 | 9.8 | 1 | 115.0 | 1 | 71 | 532 |
| Ross Chastain | $7300 | 18 | 9.8 | 0 | 83.5 | 0 | 18 | 39 |
| Bubba Wallace | $8300 | 15 | 10.5 | 0 | 86.0 | 0 | 27 | 6 |
| William Byron | $10000 | 2 | 11.0 | 2 | 99.4 | 0 | 52 | 443 |
| Ryan Preece | $8100 | 17 | 11.8 | 0 | 86.5 | 0 | 48 | 135 |
| Chase Briscoe | $9200 | 27 | 13.3 | 0 | 99.2 | 1 | 49 | 117 |
| Christopher Bell | $10200 | 11 | 14.8 | 0 | 84.8 | 0 | 29 | 25 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5700 | 29 | 15.5 | 0 | 79.8 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
| Austin Dillon | $5600 | 30 | 18.3 | 0 | 62.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| Ty Gibbs | $8500 | 4 | 18.7 | 0 | 75.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Reddick | $9500 | 8 | 19.0 | 0 | 71.5 | 1 | 18 | 6 |
| Chris Buescher | $8000 | 16 | 20.0 | 0 | 54.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shane van Gisbergen | $6000 | 5 | 20.0 | 0 | 54.9 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Cindric | $6900 | 6 | 20.2 | 0 | 64.5 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Kyle Busch | $7000 | 34 | 20.3 | 0 | 60.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5500 | 33 | 20.5 | 0 | 51.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Berry | $7500 | 3 | 20.8 | 0 | 73.7 | 0 | 3 | 40 |
| Michael McDowell | $6200 | 20 | 22.3 | 0 | 57.0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Brad Keselowski | $7800 | 23 | 22.7 | 0 | 70.7 | 0 | 40 | 177 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6700 | 22 | 23.2 | 0 | 63.4 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| Noah Gragson | $5900 | 31 | 24.0 | 0 | 51.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | $5000 | 36 | 24.3 | 0 | 46.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Hocevar | $7200 | 7 | 24.6 | 0 | 51.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Custer | $5100 | 24 | 25.0 | 0 | 58.7 | 0 | 26 | 0 |
| Zane Smith | $5800 | 14 | 25.4 | 0 | 48.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Jones | $6300 | 19 | 25.8 | 0 | 53.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $6500 | 28 | 26.5 | 0 | 48.8 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | $6100 | 32 | 28.3 | 0 | 37.4 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cody Ware | $4800 | 36 | 31.0 | 0 | 29.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Herbst | $4900 | 26 | 33.5 | 0 | 33.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Driver | Salary | Avg Finish Pts | Driver Rating Pts | Stage Points Pts | Laps Led Pts | Start Pts | Win Bonus | Top 5 Laps Bonus | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | $10700 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| Kyle Larson | $10500 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| William Byron | $10000 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
| Denny Hamlin | $11000 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| Chase Briscoe | $9200 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Chase Elliott | $9700 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 |
| Ryan Preece | $8100 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Christopher Bell | $10200 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Joey Logano | $9000 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Brad Keselowski | $7800 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Ross Chastain | $7300 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Bubba Wallace | $8300 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5700 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Tyler Reddick | $9500 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6700 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Austin Dillon | $5600 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Kyle Busch | $7000 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Ty Gibbs | $8500 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Josh Berry | $7500 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Austin Cindric | $6900 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5500 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Michael McDowell | $6200 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Cole Custer | $5100 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Chris Buescher | $8000 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $6500 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | $6100 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Noah Gragson | $5900 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Ty Dillon | $5000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Cody Ware | $4800 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Riley Herbst | $4900 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Shane van Gisbergen | $6000 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Erik Jones | $6300 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Zane Smith | $5800 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Carson Hocevar | $7200 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Making Sense of the Data
The top tier is very clear this week. The same five drivers consistently separate themselves at Martinsville Speedway, and they show it across every metric. They run up front, they collect stage points, and most importantly, they lead laps. That is what this slate is about.
The key is finding the right dominators. One is not enough. You are likely going to need two, and there is a very real path where three are required to win. This is a race where laps led and fastest laps decide everything, so getting those pieces right is the foundation of every build.
From there, it becomes about structure. You need the right three drivers around them. Whether that is a mid range play with upside or two cheaper drivers who can move forward, that is where the slate is won or lost. There are multiple ways to build it, but the goal is always the same. Get the dominators right and pair them with drivers who can gain positions and stay on the lead lap.
The way to get different this week is not fading the top. It is how you build around them. Leaving some salary on the table is one way to separate. Another is going cheaper in two spots to allow for a stronger third or even fourth high end driver. There are also paths to a more balanced build, but those should be used more sparingly as a way to stay unique rather than the primary approach.
The main strategy is simple. Mix and match the top tier, build from the top down, and find the right combination behind it. If you land on the correct dominators and your supporting pieces move forward, you give yourself a real shot to take this thing down.
Salary Breakdown
The $10000 range is going to carry a ton of ownership this week, and rightfully so. These are your dominators. All of them have the ability to lead laps and control this race. I expect fairly balanced exposure across this tier, with maybe a slight dip in ownership on Christopher Bell compared to the rest. I am not trying to get cute here. I want strong exposure across this entire group and will be mixing and matching heavily.
The first key piece outside of that range is Chase Briscoe $9200 overweight. Starting 27th, he brings one of the best combinations of upside and flexibility on the slate. There are not many high end drivers starting that deep, and he opens the door to fitting in an extra top tier dominator. He is going to be a core piece for me.
Another driver that stands out immediately is Ryan Preece $8100 overweight. Starting 17th, strong short track background, and he has shown he can lead laps here. This is a driver I can absolutely see finishing inside the top 10 and landing in the optimal.
I will be underweight on Chris Buescher $8000. Just not seeing enough upside relative to the price. Brad Keselowski $7800 on par has solid upside starting deeper in the field. It is not his best track, but he has a clear path to move forward and can absolutely land in the optimal with a strong enough finish.
Josh Berry $7500 underweight is interesting as a leverage piece. Starting deep, he is not going to pull much ownership, and he absolutely has top 5 upside here. I will have exposure, just not going overboard.
Ross Chastain $7300 is a strong mid tier option with clear path to move forward. I expect to be solid here. On the other side, Carson Hocevar $7200 underweight is likely to carry some ownership based on hype and starting position, but he has not shown enough at this track for me to get aggressive. I will have some, but below the field.
Todd Gilliland $5700 overweight is one of the best value plays on the slate. Starting 29th, extremely consistent at this track, and has shown he can move forward. His lowest finish in the last six races here is 23rd, which gives him a very strong floor, and any move into the mid teens likely puts him in the optimal.
Austin Dillon $5600 overweight fits that same mold. Starting 30th with proven ability to finish well here. He has real top 10 upside, and at this price, any strong forward movement makes him extremely valuable.
Down at the bottom, Austin Hill $5300 is at least interesting starting near the back. Pure salary relief with position upside. Cole Custer $5100 is the other name that stands out in this range. Strong history in the Xfinity series at this track and cheap enough to make builds work.
Shane van Gisbergen $6000 is improving every time out. Starting 5th limits his upside a bit, but his progression at this track is real. I will have a few shares, but nothing heavy due to the starting position.
Final Thoughts
This slate is all about the top. You have a handful of main course options that can absolutely take over this race, and the difference this week is going to come down to what you pair with them. Everybody is going to land on similar dominators, that part is obvious, but the edge comes from picking the right side dishes, finding the value that moves forward, the mid range piece that sneaks into the optimal, and the one or two spots where you get just a little different without sacrificing upside. Build it from the top down, mix and match your dominators, be intentional with your value, and do not be afraid to leave a little salary on the table if it helps you get unique, because this week it is not just about picking the right stars, it is about building the right plate around them, so let’s go win a fucking GPP, good luck Outsiders.
IT ONLY TAKES ONE.
