If you are walking into Kansas Speedway thinking this is just another clean intermediate where the fastest cars show up, control the race, and the chalk builds itself, you are already behind the field. This track looks simple, but it does not race simple, and that gap between perception and reality is exactly where the edge lives this week. Kansas gives you just enough structure to feel comfortable, but underneath that surface is constant movement, shifting track conditions, and drivers making mistakes at speed. You are not betting on who is fast here, you are betting on who can survive, adapt, and still be there when the race actually gets decided.
Kansas is a 1.5 mile tri oval that was repaved in 2012, and over time it has developed into one of the most dynamic intermediate tracks on the schedule. The banking in the turns ranges from seventeen to twenty degrees, which opens up multiple racing lanes and allows drivers to search for speed throughout a run instead of getting locked into one groove. That freedom creates opportunity, but it also creates pressure, because drivers are constantly adjusting, pushing limits, and trying to find grip in different parts of the track. You will see cars run the bottom, move to the middle, and then attack the wall as the run develops, which keeps the field tight and forces drivers into uncomfortable decisions at high speed.
The tire wear here is just enough to matter without completely taking over the race, which creates one of the most important dynamics for DFS this week. Drivers who push too hard early in a run can fall off quickly, while drivers who manage their equipment can close fast over longer stretches. That creates passing, that creates frustration, and eventually that creates mistakes. Kansas does not need extreme conditions to produce chaos, because the combination of speed, multiple grooves, and tire falloff naturally leads to drivers putting themselves in bad positions. When that happens, it usually ends with contact, lost track position, or a car going into the wall.
This is where Kansas separates itself from other intermediate tracks, because it produces what can best be described as controlled chaos. It is not random like a superspeedway, but it is far from predictable. Drivers can run near the front all day and still lose everything on a late restart, while others hang around, avoid trouble, and suddenly find themselves in contention when it matters most. Clean air helps, but it is not everything here, which means comers can move forward and leaders are never fully safe. That constant tension builds throughout the race and creates a wide range of outcomes that the field consistently underestimates.
With qualifying completed and the field set by speed, the board is going to push ownership toward the obvious early leaders, but Kansas has a long history of not rewarding the most obvious builds. Dominator points will matter in some specific races like last year when Kyle Larson dominated from start to finish, but this is not a race where you blindly lock in the front row and move on. The other race had some late dramatics to end the race. This is a race where understanding how the track evolves, how drivers manage their runs, and how chaos unfolds late gives you the ability to build lineups that separate when everything breaks loose. Kansas is not about picking the fastest cars, it is about identifying the right combination of speed, stability, and timing, because when this race flips, it flips fast.
2025 Kansas Recap and What It Tells Us
When you go back and look at last year at Kansas Speedway, you get two completely different race scripts that both matter for how we build this week, and that is exactly why this track creates so many angles to attack. In the spring race, it was complete domination from Kyle Larson, who started on the pole, controlled the pace from the drop of the green flag, swept the stages, and never gave the field a real chance to breathe. That is the clean version of Kansas, where one elite car hits everything right, manages the run perfectly, and turns the race into a statement. It shows you that if the right driver gets out front with the right balance, dominator points are absolutely in play and can decide the slate.
Then you flip to the fall race, and you get the other version of Kansas, the one that creates separation for Outsiders. Chase Elliott wins in a dramatic finish after running near the front all day, but it was anything but clean getting there, with late race pressure, shifting track position, and contenders battling deep into the final laps. Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell both finished right there behind him, and that matters, because those are the same names that continue to show up when this track starts to get chaotic late. The key takeaway is that even when the race does not turn into a full blown wreck fest, the outcome still shifts late, and the drivers who can stay in position and execute under pressure are the ones who close.
Looking across both races, the consistency starts to stand out. Christopher Bell finished inside the top three in both events, showing that sustained performance here matters just as much as raw speed. Chase Briscoe quietly put together two top five finishes, reinforcing that this track allows more drivers to stay relevant deep into the race. Kyle Larson backed up his dominant spring win with another strong finish in the fall, and you continue to see the same core group of drivers cycling through the front. That is the balance Kansas gives you. It rewards elite speed, but it also keeps enough drivers in the mix that the final results do not always follow the cleanest script.
This is why Kansas is not a one angle track. You can get a full dominator outcome like the spring race, or you can get a late shifting finish where multiple drivers have a shot and positioning becomes everything. The field tends to lean too hard into one of those outcomes, and that is where builds get duplicated. Understanding that both paths are live at the same time is what allows you to build with flexibility instead of forcing a single narrative.
Historical Data Table and Scoring System
To break this slate down the right way, we lean into the historical data and build out a structured table that captures how drivers have actually performed at Kansas Speedway over recent races. This is not about guessing who feels right, this is about identifying patterns in performance, opportunity, and consistency that the field either overlooks or misreads. The goal is to take multiple data points and turn them into a clear ranking system that highlights who is putting themselves in position to succeed at this specific track.
The table pulls in key metrics that matter for Kansas. Stage points over the last six races(4 this week) give us a clear picture of who is running up front consistently, even if the final finishes do not always show it. Driver rating helps capture overall performance and efficiency throughout the race, while laps led show true dominator upside and the ability to control the pace. Average finish gives a baseline for consistency, while DNFs help identify risk and volatility that can swing tournaments. Starting position is included because it directly impacts place differential upside, and salary helps tie everything back to lineup construction.
From there, we apply a simple but effective scoring system. Each metric is divided into tiers, with the top group receiving three points, the middle group receiving two points, and the bottom group receiving one point. This creates a balanced view where no single stat dominates the evaluation, and drivers who consistently perform well across multiple categories rise to the top. The one adjustment comes with starting position, where the scoring is reversed. Drivers starting deeper in the field receive the higher score because of their place differential potential, while drivers starting up front receive fewer points since their upside in that category is more limited.
Once everything is scored, the totals give us a clear snapshot of who stands out at Kansas based on a combination of performance, opportunity, and risk. This is where the real edge starts to form, because it allows us to move beyond surface level narratives and into structured decision making. From here, we take those rankings and start building out our tiers, identifying where the field will concentrate ownership, and where we can create leverage.
Kansas Data Table Build
| Driver | Salary | Start | Avg Finish | DNFs | Laps Led | Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 11000 | 2 | 12.8 | 1 | 233 | 111.1 |
| Christopher Bell | 10700 | 11 | 4.5 | 0 | 173 | 116.7 |
| Kyle Larson | 10500 | 4 | 8.5 | 0 | 285 | 110.3 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10200 | 9 | 10.8 | 0 | 4 | 93.9 |
| William Byron | 10000 | 14 | 14.5 | 0 | 24 | 89.8 |
| Chase Briscoe | 9800 | 5 | 13.3 | 0 | 19 | 72.1 |
| Tyler Reddick | 9500 | 1 | 17.3 | 0 | 14 | 78.3 |
| Ty Gibbs | 9200 | 3 | 22.5 | 0 | 5 | 78.7 |
| Chase Elliott | 9000 | 13 | 7.0 | 0 | 53 | 100.8 |
| Joey Logano | 8700 | 15 | 19.5 | 0 | 4 | 77.0 |
| Bubba Wallace | 8500 | 18 | 18.0 | 1 | 13 | 73.9 |
| Chris Buescher | 8300 | 7 | 9.0 | 0 | 54 | 96.5 |
| Ross Chastain | 8100 | 31 | 12.3 | 0 | 95 | 89.1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7900 | 21 | 19.5 | 1 | 10 | 73.8 |
| Carson Hocevar | 7700 | 6 | 27.8 | 0 | 9 | 68.8 |
| Alex Bowman | 7600 | 33 | 11.5 | 0 | 8 | 92.2 |
| Ryan Preece | 7500 | 12 | 19.3 | 0 | 0 | 62.7 |
| Kyle Busch | 7300 | 23 | 16.8 | 0 | 41 | 78.7 |
| Austin Cindric | 7200 | 34 | 28.0 | 1 | 0 | 65.4 |
| Josh Berry | 7000 | 30 | 23.0 | 2 | 1 | 61.3 |
| Corey Heim | 6900 | 24 | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 56.6 |
| Connor Zilich | 6800 | 36 | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Daniel Suarez | 6700 | 8 | 22.8 | 1 | 6 | 51.8 |
| Erik Jones | 6600 | 19 | 27.7 | 0 | 0 | 46.5 |
| Zane Smith | 6500 | 25 | 21.5 | 1 | 3 | 71.0 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 6400 | 17 | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 53.9 |
| Michael McDowell | 6200 | 18 | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 58.0 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 6100 | 27 | 37.0 | 2 | 0 | 45.7 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 6000 | 32 | 21.3 | 1 | 1 | 55.1 |
| Todd Gilliland | 5800 | 26 | 16.3 | 0 | 4 | 59.6 |
| Austin Dillon | 5700 | 20 | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 49.9 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 5600 | 16 | 24.5 | 0 | 0 | 56.9 |
| Noah Gragson | 5400 | 28 | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 72.4 |
| Riley Herbst | 5200 | 22 | 28.0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 |
| Cole Custer | 5100 | 29 | 22.5 | 0 | 0 | 39.5 |
| Ty Dillon | 5000 | 37 | 23.0 | 1 | 4 | 44.8 |
| Cody Ware | 4800 | 36 | 33.5 | 1 | 0 | 26.7 |
Kansas Scoring Table Ranked by Total Points
| Driver | Salary | Start Pts | Avg Finish Pts | Laps Led Pts | Driver Rating Pts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | 10700 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| Kyle Larson | 10500 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| Chase Elliott | 9000 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| Ross Chastain | 8100 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11000 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| Chris Buescher | 8300 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| Alex Bowman | 7600 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| Kyle Busch | 7300 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10200 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| William Byron | 10000 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| Tyler Reddick | 9500 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Joey Logano | 8700 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Bubba Wallace | 8500 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| Corey Heim | 6900 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 6000 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Noah Gragson | 5400 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Chase Briscoe | 9800 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7900 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Ryan Preece | 7500 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Zane Smith | 6500 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 6400 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Michael McDowell | 6200 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Todd Gilliland | 5800 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Austin Dillon | 5700 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Austin Cindric | 7200 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Josh Berry | 7000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 6100 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Cole Custer | 5100 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Ty Dillon | 5000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Cody Ware | 4800 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Connor Zilich | 6800 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Erik Jones | 6600 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 5600 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Riley Herbst | 5200 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Ty Gibbs | 9200 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Daniel Suarez | 6700 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Carson Hocevar | 7700 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Christopher Bell 10700 overweight
Christopher Bell is the clear top play on the board based on the data and current form. He leads in driver rating, average finish, and has strong lap leading upside, which gives him multiple paths to a ceiling score. The Toyotas have speed right now, and he is one of the few drivers who can both control the race and finish it. I am going to be overweight here and lean into the consistency plus upside combination.
Kyle Larson 10500 on par
Kyle Larson is always a threat at a track like Kansas where multiple grooves and tire management matter. He has already shown he can dominate here, and his ability to adapt throughout a run keeps him in contention late. Ownership is going to be high, so this is more about staying on par with the field rather than trying to get too far ahead of it. Fading him completely is a dangerous game at this track.
William Byron 10000 underweight
William Byron is not showing the same form that we are used to, and the track history here does not justify the price. He lacks the same dominator profile as the top tier and does not bring the same level of confidence in terms of closing races. With other options in this range offering stronger paths to upside, this feels like a spot to come in underweight. I will have some exposure, but it will be limited.
Chase Briscoe 9800 overweight
Chase Briscoe is starting to turn things around, and this track sets up well for his recent momentum. He showed strong results here last year and has the ability to stay near the front and capitalize late. At this price and expected ownership, he becomes a strong leverage play in tournaments. I am going to be overweight and look for him to continue his upward trend.
Chase Elliott 9000 on par to slightly underweight
Chase Elliott has proven he can win here and consistently put himself in position late in the race. The profile is strong, but the ownership is going to follow, which makes this more of a balance play. I am fine being around the field or slightly underweight depending on builds. He is a solid piece, but not a must prioritize play in this range.
Mid Tier and Value Plays
Ross Chastain 8100 overweight
Ross Chastain is one of the best plays on the entire slate when you factor in price, starting position, and track history. He has already shown he can lead laps here and compete up front, and now he gets the added benefit of massive place differential upside. The poor qualifying effort is exactly what we want for DFS, not something to be scared of. I will be overweight here and building a lot of lineups around his upside.
Alex Bowman 7600 overweight
Alex Bowman is the definition of a high risk, high reward play this week, but the starting position gives him a built in safety net. He does not need to do much to return value, and if he finds his way into the top ten, he becomes a slate breaker at this price. The recent form is ugly, which should keep ownership in check, but the track history says there is real upside here. I am going to be overweight and embrace the volatility.
Austin Cindric 7200 overweight
Austin Cindric falls into that same category of deep starting position with multiple paths to paying off his salary. Starting 34th gives him a ton of room to move forward, and even a mid pack finish can get the job done. If he pushes into the top fifteen, he is going to be a key piece in winning builds. I want strong exposure here because the risk is minimal compared to the upside.
Josh Berry 7000 overweight
Josh Berry is another back of the field play that fits the Kansas build perfectly. He has shown flashes of upside and now gets the benefit of starting deep enough to rack up points just by surviving and moving forward. He does not need to be perfect, he just needs to avoid mistakes and capitalize on chaos. I will have solid exposure here in tournaments.
Connor Zilich 6800 overweight
Connor Zilich is more of a pure upside play, but the starting position makes him viable across builds. At this price, you are not asking for much, and any forward movement puts him in a strong position relative to the field. He fits the construction of leaving salary on the table and getting different. I will mix him in as part of my lower owned builds.
Daniel Suarez 6700 underweight
Daniel Suarez is starting too far forward for my liking relative to his overall upside. There is not much room for him to gain position, and holding his spot would already be a solid outcome for him. That creates a situation where the ceiling is limited compared to others in this range. I will have minimal exposure and look elsewhere for upside.
Shane Van Gisbergen 6400 overweight
Shane Van Gisbergen continues to improve and is starting to show more comfort at these types of tracks. At this price, he does not need a perfect race to pay off, and there is enough upside for him to sneak into a strong finish. He is not going to carry heavy ownership, which makes him a great outsider type play. I will be overweight here as a value pivot.
John Hunter Nemechek 6000 overweight
John Hunter Nemechek is a classic upside play in this range, especially with his starting position. He has shown he can flash speed, and if things break right, he can outperform this salary easily. The risk is there, but that is exactly what we are embracing in large field tournaments. I will have exposure as part of my lower owned builds.
Noah Gragson 5400 overweight
Noah Gragson brings solid value with a starting position that allows for forward movement. He does not need a top finish to be useful, just steady progress throughout the race. At this price, he fits a lot of lineup constructions and helps you get different. I will have a healthy amount of exposure here.
Todd Gilliland 5800 overweight
Todd Gilliland is one of those sneaky plays that consistently shows up in these types of builds. He typically starts in the back half of the field and finds ways to move forward without drawing much attention. That makes him a perfect complement to higher owned plays. I will be overweight and use him as a key value piece in lineups.
change everybody after Austin Sindrick to outsider dart plays, except for Daniel Suarez, obviously he’s gonna be underweight. And you could also put Eric Jones if somebody is underweight at 6,600. Just feel like it just doesn’t provide a lot of upside at 19th and what he’s shown at this track.
Frankie the Fade of the Week
Hey meatballs, Frankie’s fade this week is William Byron. Flat out, without a doubt, my fade of the week, and let me tell you why. Toto’s not in Kansas anymore, but William Byron is, and here in Kansas he’s been nothing but subpar. He just hasn’t shown that top dog dominance you’re paying for at this price.
Here at this track, he’s looked like anything but the grand old Wizard of Oz. If anything, he’s looked more like the Scarecrow, maybe even the Cowardly Lion, just not scaring anybody and not taking control of anything. Something’s off this year, something’s not clicking, and you can see it when he’s out there on the track.
If he doesn’t fix it soon, he’s gonna be following that yellow brick road right out of championship contention. So go ahead, let the field play him, Frankie’s out.
Capisce?
.Final Thoughts and Outsider Close
This is one of those slates where the player pool is a little wider than usual, and that means your decisions matter even more. There are going to be a handful of guys that I have zero exposure to, and then there are going to be others where it is simply a matter of how much I want to lean in. The key this week is not overcommitting to the obvious builds and not stacking chalk on top of chalk without a plan to get different somewhere else.
If you are playing the popular guys like Hamlin, Larson, Reddick, and Elliott, you have to be intentional about how you are pairing them. You cannot just jam them all together and expect to separate, because that is exactly what the field is going to do. The more chalk you play, the more you need to leave salary on the table, mix in lower owned pieces, and build lineups that do not look like everyone else’s. That is how you avoid splitting first place with five or ten other people and actually give yourself a shot at taking everything.
And that is the goal. I am not here to min cash, I am not here to share, and I am definitely not here to play it safe. I want the whole enchilada. I want the whole thing when it hits, because those opportunities do not come around often. This is a high variance game, and if you are not embracing that, you are playing it wrong. The wins are what matter, and building with that mindset is what creates long term success.
That is what being an Outsider is all about. Taking the uncomfortable path, trusting your read, and building lineups that can actually win. If you hit big and this helped you get there, show some love. If not, keep grinding, keep learning, and keep getting sharper. Let’s go win a fucking GPP…
It only takes one.
