Masters Recap
Let’s start where we have to start. Augusta National Golf Club gave us one of the most chaotic, emotional, and downright wild finishes we’ve seen in a long time, and it perfectly sums up what this game does to even the best in the world. Rory McIlroy walked into Sunday with a massive lead, the kind of lead that historically shuts the door on everyone else, and for a stretch it looked like he was going to cruise. Then the wheels started to wobble. Not completely fall off, but wobble just enough to remind everyone that closing out majors is a completely different animal.
What stood out most was not just the fact that Rory let the field back in, but how he did it. The early Sunday stretch was shaky, uncomfortable, and honestly a little tense to watch. You could feel the pressure creeping in shot by shot, and it actually reached a point where Cameron Young surged and grabbed the lead, flipping the entire tournament on its head. That is where things got real. Rory was no longer protecting a lead, he was chasing again, and that shift in pressure is where a lot of players break. But this is where elite players separate themselves. Just when it felt like things might spiral, he flipped the switch at exactly the right moment. That late Sunday heater was vintage Rory, aggressive, confident, and fully in control, and it ended up being just enough to slam the door shut and take it home.
Then there’s Scottie Scheffler, and this is becoming a real conversation now. Not panic, not concern in the big picture, but definitely a trend worth noting. Slow starts. Again. He continues to put himself behind the eight ball early in tournaments, and while his ability to climb leaderboards is unreal, it’s also leaving him with too much ground to make up on Sundays. By the time he heats up, he’s chasing instead of controlling, and this week it showed again in a big way because he had a putt late on Sunday that, if it drops, we are talking about a playoff with Rory instead of a near miss. That matters, especially in majors where margins are razor thin, but he just keeps showing how much of a great golfer he really is, and with the price decrease this week heading into the RBC Heritage, and also some lower priced options that are viable this week, that makes him a little more viable in my opinion.
Zooming out, from a DFS perspective, this was exactly the type of week we talk about when it comes to trusting your process and leaning into uncomfortable ownership. Rory McIlroy came in at just 8 percent owned, and I was sitting there with 25 percent exposure across 200 plus lineups, exactly the type of overweight stance we preach when the field hesitates. That gave me a real shot. I had a millionaire sweat going late, sitting inside the top 100, and it was right there for the taking before things flipped. Sam Burns making bogey on 17 absolutely crushed that run, not only dropping him out of second place on the leaderboard, but also costing the five point bonus for four rounds under par, and that swing alone pretty much knocked me out of a top 10 finish in the Milly Maker.
Still, it ended up being a profitable week overall. I cashed 500 dollars in the Millionaire Maker and added another 750 with a fifth place finish in the 50 cent tournament, so the process was right, the exposure was right, and the mindset was exactly where it needed to be. It is always a little frustrating when you are that close to a massive hit and it slips, but at the end of the day, we are not playing this game to stack small wins. We are playing for the big money, the six figure and seven figure scores, and that is the approach that keeps us aligned week in and week out as we move on to the RBC Heritage looking to take down a GPP.
RBC Heritage Course Preview
We head over to Harbour Town Golf Links, and this is one of the most unique tests on the entire PGA Tour. It is a par 71 that plays right around 7,100 yards, so on paper it looks short compared to what we just saw at Augusta National Golf Club, but do not let that fool you for a second because this course will absolutely expose you if you are not precise. Last year’s winner was Justin Thomas, who got it done in a playoff over Andrew Novak, and that right there tells you everything about how this course plays because Novak had every chance to win that tournament late on Sunday before it slipped away in extra holes.
This is a classic positional golf course. Tree lined, tight fairways, doglegs everywhere, and you are constantly forced to club down off the tee just to find the right spots. It is not about bombing driver all over the place. It is about placement, angles, and setting yourself up for the correct approach into these greens. If you are out of position here, you are scrambling immediately, and that is not where you want to live for four straight rounds.
The greens are small, firm, and Bermuda based, and they are some of the smallest targets you will see all season. That immediately puts an emphasis on approach play, especially from wedge and short iron ranges. You are going to see a ton of shots coming in from that 125 to 175 window, and the players that dial those distances in are the ones that separate. Missing greens here is not a death sentence, but it puts pressure on your short game and your ability to save par consistently.
Because of that setup, par four scoring becomes absolutely critical this week. There are only a few par fives, and they are not the primary scoring opportunities like we see at longer tracks. This is a grind on the par fours. You have to pick them apart, stay patient, and avoid the big numbers. Bogey avoidance matters. Precision matters. And wedge play is going to be one of the biggest separators on the board.
What makes this event even more interesting is that it is a signature event, so you are getting a loaded, star studded field immediately following the Masters. It is always a little crazy seeing guys roll right back out after a major, but we still get a ton of elite talent here. We do not get Rory McIlroy, but we do get Scottie Scheffler, we get Cameron Young, and a deep group of top 25 players in the world that are more than capable of winning this thing.
At the same time, this is one of those tournaments that consistently opens the door for players outside that elite tier to make serious runs. The course neutralizes pure power and rewards precision, which brings a wider range of golfers into play, and we saw that again last year with Andrew Novak right there in a playoff with a real chance to win. That is what makes this slate so fun from a DFS perspective because you are not just forced into one build path.
Pricing this week also feels a little more balanced across the board. You can build around the top with someone like Scottie Scheffler, although I would not mind seeing him just a bit cheaper, but there are also legitimate mid range and value options that can compete here because of the way this course plays. When you combine that with the course fit, the field strength, and the scoring dynamics, this is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing and wide open slates we have seen in a while, and there are a lot of golfers worth talking about as we start breaking this thing down.
Metrics That Matter
When we break this course down from a DFS perspective, it is not about overwhelming power or just chasing raw scoring upside. This is a precision based test where controlling your ball, managing angles, and executing with your irons separates the field, so the metrics we focus on this week reflect that style of golf and how players navigate a course like Harbour Town Golf Links.
Scrambling
You are not going to hit every green here, nobody does, and with how small these Bermuda greens are, players are going to miss in a lot of different spots. Scrambling becomes critical because the guys who can consistently get up and down are the ones that avoid bogeys and keep rounds alive, especially when they get slightly out of position off the tee or miss their number on approach.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
This is one of the best overall indicators of who is playing elite golf coming into the week. At a course like this where everything is about control and consistency, players who are gaining across the board from tee to green are giving themselves the most opportunities, and more importantly, they are avoiding the big mistakes that can quickly add up on a positional layout.
Birdie Average
Even though this is not a pure birdie fest, you still need guys who can convert when opportunities present themselves. Birdie average helps identify players who capitalize on the limited scoring chances, especially on the shorter par fours and the few gettable holes where you have to take advantage.
Birdie or Better Percentage
This goes hand in hand with birdie average but gives a broader picture of scoring upside. On a course where you are not going to see a ton of eagles or easy scoring stretches, players who consistently generate birdies without relying on streaky putting can separate themselves over four rounds.
Strokes Gained on Approach
This is arguably the most important stat this week. With the emphasis on angles, positioning, and attacking small targets, iron play has to be dialed in. Distance control is everything here. If you are missing your spots by even a few yards, you are going to find yourself in tough scrambling situations, so players who are elite with their wedges and short irons have a massive edge.
Par Four Scoring Average
This is a par four dominated course, and that is where this tournament is won and lost. With limited par five opportunities, players need to consistently gain strokes across the par fours, avoid bogeys, and take advantage of the shorter holes where precision gives them a look at birdie.
Greens in Regulation
This ties directly into approach play and overall control. Players who are hitting a high percentage of greens are reducing stress on their short game and giving themselves more consistent birdie looks, which is huge on a course where missed greens can quickly turn into dropped shots.
When you tie all of this together, the theme is clear. Shot shaping matters. Distance control matters. Playing from the right side of the fairway matters. This is a thinking man’s golf course where players who can control their ball flight, trust their numbers, and stay disciplined will rise to the top, and those are the exact profiles we want to target when building lineups this week.
Scottie Scheffler Decision Point
Let’s start with the price, because that is where everything begins this week. Scottie Scheffler is no longer sitting in that absurd 14K range that completely breaks the slate, and now we get him at 13,500, which is a noticeable drop and at least brings him back into play from a roster construction standpoint. With that being said, it still tightens everything up. You are not comfortably jamming multiple studs alongside him. If you go Scheffler, you are likely pairing him with one guy in the low nines or mid eights, or maybe building with a couple low eight range players, and then you are absolutely dipping into the sevens and likely the sixes to round things out.
Now the good news is this slate actually gives you some flexibility down there. There are a lot of names in the seven range that look viable, and even a handful of guys in the sixes that I am willing to take some stabs on, especially given the way this course plays and how it allows for a wider range of outcomes. So I will have Scheffler builds, no question about it, because the raw upside is just too strong to ignore on a course that fits his all around game.
The real question is not if you play Scheffler. It is how much Scheffler. He grades out as the clear top overall play on this slate. He has already won here, he is coming off a second place finish last week, and even when he has those slower starts like we saw at THE PLAYERS Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he still finds ways to climb and put himself in contention. That is what elite looks like. It would not surprise me one bit to see him win this tournament, and honestly, I feel very strong about his chances this week.
Ownership wise, he is projecting somewhere in the 20 percent range, maybe mid 20s, and that feels about right. The interesting part of this slate is that ownership is fairly spread out across the board, so there is not one overwhelming chalk piece that you feel forced into fading. That shifts the edge slightly. It might not just be about fading ownership, but instead about how you build around it. Leaving a little money on the table, getting unique with your mid range, and taking stands on specific players you believe in becomes more important than just blindly eating or fading chalk.
You also have to consider the opportunity cost. When you drop down from Scheffler to someone like Xander Schauffele, you are saving roughly 3,000 in salary, which is a massive difference in roster flexibility, and it opens up a completely different build path that allows you to fit more elite players into your lineup.
The key really is not necessarily which studs you are going to plug in, it is going to come down to the lower priced guys and which ones actually pop. I feel pretty strongly about a few lower owned players that I want to focus in on, and that is where I think the real edge is going to come from this week. If Scheffler wins, you are still going to need the right value pieces to go with him, so that becomes critical. On the flip side, with balanced builds, that is where you can get a little more creative by leaving some money on the table, leaning into more outsider type plays, and maybe even dropping further down the board to fit four really strong golfers in that 7,700 to 10,000 range. There are different paths this week, different mindsets to attack it, and for me it is going to be about mixing builds, playing a high volume of lineups, and really zoning in on a few leverage spots that I want to take a stand on, which is exactly what we are about to get into next.
Elite Tier
Matt Fitzpatrick 10000 on par
Matt Fitzpatrick is a really solid fit for this course and someone I am comfortable matching the field on this week. He won here in 2023 and continues to show strong form with great performances at the Valspar and THE PLAYERS Championship, and even a respectable showing at the Masters despite not closing particularly strong. The tee to green game is always reliable, the short game is strong, and it really just comes down to the putter, because if he starts rolling it well, he absolutely has the ability to contend for the win again here.
Cameron Young 9800 slightly overweight
Cameron Young is going to be one of my biggest stances this week. The course history is not going to jump off the page outside of that T3 in 2022, and the Masters finish may leave a bad taste in people’s mouths, but this guy is absolutely dialed in right now. The tee to green numbers have been elite, he is hitting a ton of greens, and if the putter even cooperates a little bit, he has the profile to win this tournament, so I am more than comfortable coming in slightly overweight here.
Russell Henley 9600 slightly overweight
Russell Henley sets up beautifully for this course. Distance is not a factor here, and that plays right into his strengths with accuracy, iron play, and overall control. He is coming off a strong Masters showing, has already flashed top 10 upside at this event, and with the way he is striking the ball right now, this feels like a spot where he could realistically push for a top five finish.
Patrick Cantlay 9400 overweight
Patrick Cantlay is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate and probably one of my biggest stances this week. He is playing really solid golf right now, and even though he is not known as an elite putter, we have seen some positive signs recently with better performances on the greens at the Valspar and THE PLAYERS Championship, and even improved putting over the weekend at the Masters. This course is absolutely perfect for him, and the history speaks for itself with finishes of 13th, 3rd, 3rd, and 2nd, so you are getting elite course fit, strong tee to green play, and a player who clearly feels comfortable here, which makes him a top tier target for me.
Collin Morikawa 9300 underweight
Yes, Collin Morikawa played well at the Masters, but let’s be honest, he did not look right out there. He looked like a guy dealing with something physically and just never seemed comfortable, and that is a concern coming into a precision based course like this. The history here has been hit or miss with a T54 last year, and I just have a feeling this is not the spot where everything clicks, so I will have some exposure, but I am going to come in underweight overall.
Sam Burns 9000 underweight
Sam Burns is someone I am going to come in underweight on this week. This course just does not feel like a perfect fit for him, especially when you factor in the importance of scrambling and around the green play, which are not his strongest areas even though he is an elite putter. He also had a pretty tough finish at the Masters, and that Sunday drop off with the irons combined with the emotional letdown of being in contention and falling back gives me some concern, so while I will have some exposure, I am definitely going to be below the field here.
Middle Tier
Jordan Spieth 8800 overweight
Jordan Spieth is a classic course horse here and someone I definitely want to be ahead of this week. A win and a second place finish here highlight just how comfortable he is at this course, and he is quietly playing really solid golf with a 12th at the Masters and 11th at the Valspar. The ball striking has been better, and if the putter heats up, this is the type of place where he can absolutely contend, so I am more than willing to come in overweight.
Robert MacIntyre 8700 underweight
Robert MacIntyre is someone I am going to be underweight on this week. The course history has not been great, and coming off a missed cut at the Masters, there are some real concerns with his current form, especially with the approach play and overall greens in regulation. Even though he flashed some upside in recent weeks, this does not feel like the right spot, so I am comfortable staying below the field here.
Si Woo Kim 8500 slightly overweight
Si Woo Kim is always going to come down to the putter, but this feels like a spot where things could click. He made the cut at the Masters and has shown he can handle this course with a T8 finish here last year. If the putter cooperates even a little bit, the tee to green game is good enough for him to make a run, so I am definitely interested and will be slightly overweight.
Viktor Hovland 8400 overweight
Viktor Hovland really caught my attention at the Masters. He started to look like himself again, striking the ball well and gaining confidence as the week went on. With a T13 here last year and trending in the right direction, I just have a strong feeling this is a spot where he could be in contention come Sunday, so I am going to be overweight.
Shane Lowry 8300 underweight
Shane Lowry has plenty of experience at this course and you cannot completely ignore that, but this is more of a relative fade for me. There are just other players in this range that I prefer more, so while I will have some exposure, I am going to come in underweight overall.
Jacob Bridgeman 8200 overweight
Jacob Bridgeman is someone I am very interested in this week and I want to be well over the field. With projected ownership likely in that 10 to 11 percent range, this feels like a great leverage opportunity in a price range where others may gravitate toward more recognizable names. I like getting ahead of that and taking a stand here.
Sepp Straka 7900 slightly overweight
Sepp Straka has quietly been very solid at this course with finishes of 3rd, 5th, and 13th in three of the last four years. The recent form has not been elite, but he did have an 8th at THE PLAYERS Championship and made the cut at the Masters, which is enough to keep him in play. This sets up as a comfortable spot for him, so I am happy to be slightly overweight.
Min Woo Lee 7800 overweight
Min Woo Lee is one of my favorite outsider type plays on the entire slate and someone I will likely be most overweight on. The missed cut at the Masters should keep ownership in check, but prior to that he was playing excellent golf, including a third place finish and a T2 at Pebble Beach, which is another precision style course. He is simply too talented to be this low owned at this price, and I am willing to bet on the upside here.
Akshay Bhatia 7700 overweight
Akshay Bhatia is another strong low owned upside play for me. The recent missed cuts will scare people away, but before that he was playing really good golf and has already proven he can win on a precision style course like the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This feels like a bounce back spot where I am happy to take a stand.
Rickie Fowler 7600 underweight
Rickie Fowler is someone I am not going to have much exposure to this week. The recent missed cuts combined with limited upside at this course and concerns around his approach and greens in regulation just make this a tough sell for me, so I will be underweight.
Sahith Theegala 7500 slightly overweight
Sahith Theegala is a high variance play, but this is a spot where I am willing to take a chance. He has a T2 and a T5 here to go along with some poor finishes, but that upside is exactly what we are chasing in tournaments. Coming in rested after a week off, I like taking a shot on him bouncing back with a strong performance.
Kurt Kitayama 7100 underweight
Kurt Kitayama is someone I am going to be underweight on this week. He showed some life early at the Masters, but things really fell apart after round one, and the overall game just does not look sharp right now. With weak course history here and concerns around his short game and scrambling, this feels like a spot where those weaknesses get exposed, so I am comfortable staying below the field.
J.T. Poston 7200 slightly overweight
J.T. Poston is a true course horse and someone who just feels comfortable here. The metrics are solid, but more importantly, he understands how to navigate this course, shape shots, and attack the right angles. Sometimes that familiarity is all you need, and at this price, he makes for a really strong value option.
Outsider Dart Plays
Nicolás Echavarría 6800 outsider dart play
Nicolás Echavarría is a true outsider dart, but there is upside here if you dig a little deeper. The recent form looks rough with back to back missed cuts, but he did show what he can do on a precision course with a T8 at Pebble Beach and already has a win this season. If the putter heats up, this is the type of spot where he can bounce back at low ownership.
Sungjae Im 6700 outsider dart play
Sungjae Im is a classic horse for the course and someone I am very interested in at this price. He always seems to show up here, and his short game and around the green play fit perfectly with what this course demands. Coming off a T4 at the Valspar and a made cut at the Masters, this feels like a strong value play with real upside.
Billy Horschel 6600 outsider dart play
Billy Horschel is the type of player who can absolutely pop on a course like this if things click. The putter can get hot, and when it does, he has the ability to climb leaderboards quickly. At this price, a top 20 type finish is well within reach.
Tony Finau 6600 outsider dart play
Tony Finau at this price is simply too intriguing to ignore. He has a solid all around game, and when he does miss greens, his short game is good enough to recover. This is the type of build where he can sneak into a top 15 and potentially be part of an optimal lineup.
Bud Cauley 6500 outsider dart play
Bud Cauley is a pure outsider dart, but the profile fits. He is strong on approach, solid around the greens, and capable of getting hot with the putter. Coming in rested after taking the week off, this is a spot where he could surprise.
Denny McCarthy 6500 outsider dart play
Denny McCarthy has shown he can play well here with a T13 finish and fits the mold of a player who can grind out a strong result. The short game and putting are always strengths, and if the irons cooperate, he can easily outperform this price.
Andrew Putnam 6400 outsider dart play
Andrew Putnam is not long off the tee, but that does not matter here. He is strong around the greens, solid on approach, and checks a lot of boxes for this course setup. This is the type of player who can quietly work his way into a top 20.
Patrick Rodgers 6400 outsider dart play
Patrick Rodgers has shown he can play well here with a T5 and a T19 in two of the last three appearances. At this price, that kind of course history combined with upside makes him a very intriguing dart throw.
Tom Hoge 6200 outsider dart play
Tom Hoge has not been playing well recently, but he has had success at this course in past appearances. This could be a spot where he finds something, makes the cut, and builds some confidence, making him a pure boom or bust dart.
David Lipsky 6000 outsider dart play
David Lipsky is a minimum price dart that allows you to get creative with builds. He showed upside at the Valspar and if he finds that same form, there is a path for him to sneak into a top 15 or 20 and completely break the slate.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Hey meatballs…
Frankie the Fade is back, and this week we got ourselves a situation with Shane Lowry. Everybody’s gonna tell you how gritty he is, how great the short game is, all that good stuff, but I’m lookin at what just happened at the Masters. You got the emotional high, the family week, kids out there at the Par 3 Contest, hole in one, everybody smiling, beautiful moment… and then Sunday hits and the whole thing falls apart. Irons go cold, driver’s loose, and the confidence just didn’t look the same down the stretch.
Now you want me to believe he’s gonna roll right into Harbour Town, one of the most precision heavy courses on the schedule, and suddenly lock back in? Tight fairways, tiny greens, you gotta be sharp, and I just don’t see it. Frankie sees a little emotional hangover, sees people chasing last week’s highlights, and that’s exactly where we go the other way. CAPISCE?
Final Thoughts
This is one of those weeks where lineup construction matters more than just locking in the obvious names. Start your builds from different places. Start with your mid range guys, start with your value plays, start with your dart plays, and build around those cores instead of always forcing the same top heavy structure. Take two or three guys you feel strongest about and rotate everything else around them, because that is where you are going to find your edge.
Do not be afraid to leave money on the table. This is not the Masters where you feel like you need to max out salary to keep up with elite scoring. This is a more balanced, wide open setup where lower priced players can and will contend, and those uncomfortable builds with non sexy names are often the ones that separate you from the field. There are real pathways for these cheaper guys to get hot, gain confidence, and find themselves in optimal lineups.
For me, this is going to be a high volume, mix and match type of week. I am probably keying in on around 40 to 45 players and building a core group that I rotate heavily across lineups. I will have some Scottie Scheffler builds because the price drop makes him more playable, but I am also going to have plenty of balanced builds and lineups where I leave salary on the table to get different. There is no one correct path this week, which is what makes it so fun.
I am especially high on Min Woo Lee, and even though it does not fully pop on paper, sometimes you just trust the feel and lean into it. That is the type of stance that can win you a GPP when the field hesitates. Combine that with a mix of your core plays and some well placed dart throws, and that is how you give yourself a real shot at something big.
I will be firing a ton of entries across different contests, especially those larger field tournaments in the lower buy in range, mixing in some higher stakes shots as well, and just doing what we do best, chasing that one lineup that hits everything right.
Let’s take down a fucking GPP.
It only takes one.
