The NASCAR Cup Series rolls into the Arizona desert this week, and if history tells us anything the mile long dogleg oval at Phoenix Raceway rarely disappoints. Being one mile in length technically classifies Phoenix as a short track, but the racing style is far different from the traditional tight oval tracks seen elsewhere on the schedule. Drivers must balance braking, throttle control, and tire wear through the flat corners while maintaining rhythm over long green flag runs.
Phoenix is one of the most unique tracks on the entire schedule because of its flat corners, heavy braking zones, and the famous dogleg on the frontstretch. The layout creates a racing style that feels part short track, part strategy battle, and part pure chaos when restarts stack the field three and four wide heading into the corner. Drivers can cut across the dogleg looking for position, and when the field bunches up late in a run things can get aggressive in a hurry.
This year’s race also features a small but noticeable change. NASCAR increased horsepower for the weekend, and the early qualifying laps already showed the effect. Cars are running roughly two tenths of a second faster per lap, which should make the racing even more intense once the green flag drops.
Last year’s race was won by Christopher Bell, who managed the long runs perfectly and controlled the closing portion of the race to take the victory in the desert. Heading into Sunday’s race the Vegas favorite is Ryan Blaney at +500, which is no surprise considering his recent consistency at Phoenix and strong track history here.
Another major storyline coming into the weekend is the hot start to the season for Tyler Reddick, who has already won the first three races of the year. That marks the first time in NASCAR history that a driver has opened a season with three consecutive victories. Tyler Reddick will try to extend that streak in Phoenix after qualifying eighth, which also made him the highest qualifying Toyota in the field. The top ten on the grid was largely dominated by Ford and Chevrolet, making Tyler Reddick one of the few Toyotas near the front heading into Sunday.
With 312 laps scheduled, Phoenix offers plenty of opportunities for drivers to control the race if they can find speed early. Track position, tire management, and restart execution will all play a critical role as the field battles through one of the most technical one mile tracks on the NASCAR calendar.
To get a clearer picture of which drivers historically perform best at Phoenix, I compiled several performance indicators from the last six races at this track. The data includes stage points, driver rating, laps led, average finish, and starting position for this weekend’s race. The goal is simply to organize the numbers in a way that highlights which drivers consistently perform well at this unique mile oval before building lineups.
Let’s get into the data and see how the field stacks up heading into Sunday.
Before building lineups for Phoenix, I wanted a clear way to organize several key performance indicators into one view. The first table simply lists the raw data for every driver in the field. That table includes historical stage points earned at Phoenix over the last six races, average driver rating at the track, total laps led during that span, average finishing position, and this weekend’s starting position.
Once those metrics were compiled, a scoring model was applied to convert the raw numbers into comparable values. Drivers ranked inside the top ten of a category received three points. Positions eleven through twenty received two points, and positions twenty one through thirty received one point. This process was applied to stage points, driver rating, laps led, and average finish.
Starting position was handled differently because deeper starting spots can create place differential opportunities. Drivers starting twenty seven through thirty seven received three points, positions sixteen through twenty six received two points, and drivers starting fifth through fifteenth received one point. No points were awarded for drivers starting inside the top four.
The second table ranks drivers by their total score across all categories and provides a quick snapshot of which drivers check the most boxes based on historical performance and starting position for Sunday’s race.
Phoenix Historical Metrics
| Driver | Stage Pts | Driver Rating | Laps Led | Avg Finish (DNF) | Start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Byron | 89 | 113.5 | 313 | 10.8 | 9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 69 | 108.2 | 34 | 6.7 (1) | 5 |
| Christopher Bell | 60 | 110.8 | 298 | 10.0 (1) | 12 |
| Kyle Larson | 54 | 107.3 | 214 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Denny Hamlin | 52 | 107.0 | 293 | 10.2 | 11 |
| Chris Buescher | 32 | 90.9 | 18 | 8.0 | 17 |
| Tyler Reddick | 30 | 93.8 | 68 | 14.5 | 8 |
| Chase Elliott | 25 | 83.7 | 37 | 12.6 | 26 |
| Joey Logano | 24 | 89.6 | 188 | 13.5 (1) | 1 |
| Chase Briscoe | 16 | 66.8 | 5 | 20.3 | 20 |
| Brad Keselowski | 12 | 80.5 | 7 | 14.5 (1) | 37 |
| Ross Chastain | 11 | 93.1 | 158 | 12.3 | 6 |
| Austin Cindric | 11 | 57.6 | 6 | 27.0 | 3 |
| Ty Gibbs | 9 | 61.1 | 57 | 23.0 (2) | 14 |
| Ryan Preece | 8 | 69.0 | 34 | 18.3 | 13 |
| Bubba Wallace | 5 | 70.9 | 0 | 18.8 (2) | 28 |
| Erik Jones | 5 | 64.6 | 14 | 21.3 | 32 |
| Cole Custer | 4 | 37.4 | 0 | 28.5 (1) | 36 |
| Michael McDowell | 3 | 63.9 | 0 | 16.0 | 16 |
| Daniel Suarez | 3 | 74.0 | 0 | 16.3 | 4 |
| Noah Gragson | 3 | 65.3 | 0 | 21.2 | 35 |
| Kyle Busch | 1 | 72.6 | 0 | 14.8 | 29 |
| Josh Berry | 0 | 74.2 | 0 | 14.2 | 10 |
| Austin Dillon | 0 | 50.7 | 0 | 19.8 | 25 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 0 | 52.0 | 0 | 22.3 | 21 |
| Todd Gilliland | 0 | 52.0 | 15 | 23.0 | 30 |
| Carson Hocevar | 0 | 71.0 | 0 | 23.2 (1) | 7 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 0 | 53.3 | 0 | 25.0 | 15 |
| Harrison Burton | 0 | 47.1 | 0 | 26.0 | — |
| Ty Dillon | 0 | 37.7 | 0 | 27.3 | — |
| Zane Smith | 0 | 50.4 | 0 | 27.4 (1) | 24 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 0 | 35.0 | 0 | 27.5 (1) | 18 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 0 | 41.8 | 0 | 28.0 (1) | 23 |
| Cody Ware | 0 | 32.6 | 0 | 29.3 | 34 |
| Riley Herbst | 0 | 37.5 | 0 | 30.0 (1) | 22 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 0 | — | 0 | — | 31 |
Phoenix Scoring Model Rankings
| Rank | Driver | Stage | Rating | Laps | Avg Finish | Start | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Byron | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Christopher Bell | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Chris Buescher | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Ross Chastain | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Chase Elliott | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Joey Logano | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Brad Keselowski | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Erik Jones | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyle Busch | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 15 | Chase Briscoe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 16 | Ryan Preece | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 17 | Michael McDowell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 18 | Cole Custer | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 19 | Noah Gragson | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 20 | Todd Gilliland | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 21 | Ty Gibbs | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 22 | Daniel Suarez | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 23 | Josh Berry | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 24 | Austin Dillon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 25 | Cody Ware | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 26 | Carson Hocevar | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 27 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 28 | Zane Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 29 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 30 | AJ Allmendinger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 31 | Riley Herbst | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 32 | Austin Cindric | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 33 | John Hunter Nemechek | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 34 | Anthony Alfredo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 35 | Harrison Burton | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 36 | Ty Dillon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Elite Core Plays (10K and Above)
Ryan Blaney — $11,000 — Around the Field
Vegas favorite and historically one of the most consistent drivers at Phoenix with an average finish of 6.7 over the last six races. The only concern here is price. Starting fifth limits place differential upside, so he likely needs to lead laps or win the race to land in the optimal lineup.
William Byron — $10,800 — Overweight
Grades out extremely well in the model and has dominated Phoenix statistically with the most laps led in the field over the last six races. Starting ninth gives him enough room to move forward while still having the potential to control the race if the car shows long run speed.
Christopher Bell — $10,200 — Around the Field
Starting twelfth at this price point immediately stands out. Phoenix has been a strong track for him historically and the starting position provides a nice blend of upside through both place differential and possible dominator points.
Kyle Larson — $10,500 — Overweight
Starting second gives him immediate access to clean air and potential early dominator points. Larson grades extremely well historically at Phoenix and is always capable of taking control of the race if the setup is right.
Denny Hamlin — $10,400 — Overweight
One of the strongest historical Phoenix drivers in the field and tied near the top of the scoring model. Starting eleventh provides solid upward mobility while still offering the possibility of leading laps if the long run speed shows up.
Tyler Reddick — $10,000 — Underweight
Riding a hot streak to start the season and starting eighth, which will likely make him popular at this price. The upside is obvious, but ownership may push higher than the rest of the elite tier.
Mid Tier Targets ($9,500 to $7,500)
Joey Logano — $9,400 — Around the Field
Starting on the pole always creates upside, but the lack of place differential means most of the value will have to come from laps led. Fast in qualifying and capable of controlling early track position.
Ross Chastain — $8,800 — Overweight
Strong historical metrics at Phoenix and starting sixth puts him in a position to run near the front early. Offers a good balance between price and upside compared to some of the drivers around him.
Brad Keselowski — $8,300 — Around the Field
Starting thirty seventh creates massive place differential potential, which will make him extremely popular. Exposure makes sense, but fading some lineups could create leverage in tournaments.
Chris Buescher — $8,100 — Overweight
Starting seventeenth with a strong historical Phoenix profile. Has legitimate top five upside and serves as a pivot option away from the likely heavy ownership on Keselowski.
Kyle Busch — $7,900 — Overweight
Starting twenty ninth gives him plenty of room to move forward. The track history hasn’t been great recently, but talent alone always gives him the ability to surprise if the car shows speed.
Carson Hocevar — $7,700 — Around the Field
Showed speed in qualifying and has been running well to start the season. High upside but also a bit volatile, making him a solid tournament exposure play.
Connor Zilisch — $7,600 — Around the Field
Young driver with upside and the type of aggressive racing style that can create big swings in DFS scoring. Worth some exposure but not a core piece.
Bubba Wallace — $7,500 — Overweight
Starting twenty eighth provides strong place differential upside at this price point. If he moves into the top fifteen or better, he can easily pay off the salary.
Ryan Preece — $7,400 — Underweight
Starting thirteenth limits upside somewhat compared to other drivers in this price range. Solid driver but likely not a priority build.
Austin Cindric — $6,900 — Underweight
Qualified third and showed strong single lap speed, but historically hasn’t demonstrated great long run pace at Phoenix. Could hang around the front early but upside is more limited.
Ty Gibbs — $6,800 — Underweight
Starting fourteenth creates a relatively narrow path to optimal scoring unless he significantly outperforms his historical numbers at this track.
Michael McDowell — $6,500 — Around the Field
Starting sixteenth with the ability to grind out a solid finish if the race goes long. Quietly capable of sneaking into the top ten if the strategy falls his way.
Value and Dart Plays
Zane Smith — $5,800 — Overweight
Starting twenty fourth and offers strong value at this price. The historical average finish is weighed down by a DNF, and there is room here for him to outperform expectations.
Noah Gragson — $5,600 — Around the Field
Starting deep in the field provides some place differential upside. Risky, but the price makes him viable in tournament builds.
Erik Jones — $5,500 — Around the Field
Another driver starting far enough back to benefit from upward movement through the field.
Todd Gilliland — $5,400 — Around the Field
Cheap option who occasionally finds ways to move forward late in races. Not a core play but usable in certain builds.
Austin Hill — $5,300 — Dart Throw
Dark horse value option. If he can maintain track position and sneak into the top fifteen, he could easily exceed expectations at this salary.
John Hunter Nemechek — $5,200 — Dart Throw
Showed some comfort at this track and qualified reasonably well. At this price point, simply holding position could make him viable.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Hey meatballs.
Everybody’s talking about Tyler Reddick this week. The guy’s hotter than Hailie Deegan on race day right now, winning everywhere he goes and lighting up the track like he’s the Michael Jordan of NASCAR lately. But even Michael Jordan never won more than three championships in a row, and Frankie doesn’t think Tyler Reddick is about to start the season with four wins in a row.
Now listen, he might still have a respectable finish. The kid’s fast. But at that price tag, with everybody lining up to click his name this week, Frankie’s looking somewhere else. So Frankie’s not clicking that button this week, just like I didn’t click SVG last week.
That’s how Frankie wins, meatballs. That’s how Frankie gets the money bag. Capisce? So play Tyler Reddick if you want to, but every streak comes to an end. Just ask Scottie Scheffler.
Arrivederci.
DraftKings Strategy
When looking at this slate, the most logical approach is trying to get two elite drivers into your lineup builds whenever possible. The top tier clearly stands out above the rest of the field, so having exposure to those drivers is almost mandatory if you want access to the dominator points in this race.
The challenge comes with how you build the rest of the lineup around them. If you plug in a driver like Brad Keselowski starting at the back of the field, that salary starts to limit how many elite drivers you can stack together. In some builds you may only be able to get one of the top tier dominators, which means you’ll need to find upside in the mid range or deeper value plays.
One approach is to leave a little salary on the table. That’s often a simple way to build lineups that look slightly different from the majority of the field. Another path is mixing in mid tier drivers who still carry strong upside while allowing you to fit two of the elite drivers at the top.
The biggest thing to remember is that if you’re playing chalk, you need to get different somewhere else. There are going to be a lot of dudes building lineups around combinations like Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick because they sit near the top of the board and carry strong recent form. When those drivers become popular, the edge comes from finding different combinations with the rest of the lineup.
Sometimes that uniqueness comes from the cheaper dart throws. A driver starting deep in the field that everyone ignores could simply survive the race and move forward enough to land in an optimal lineup. That’s why every lineup should be built with intention. The goal is not to get reckless, the goal is to find smart ways to be different.
Another interesting angle comes from looking at the manufacturers. Qualifying suggested that the Ford and Chevrolet teams may have shown a little more raw speed early in the weekend. That could push ownership in that direction, which means building some Toyota heavy lineups might actually create a contrarian path if the race plays out differently over long runs.
At the end of the day this slate offers multiple paths to building strong lineups. Embrace the chaos, trust your research, and build each lineup with purpose. Good luck this weekend, and let’s take down some GPP’s!
Remember, it only takes one.
