This week the PGA Tour heads to one of golf’s most iconic stops, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This week will bring together roughly 70 of the best players in the world in a stacked, star studded field. Headlining the week is Scottie Scheffler, who seemingly refuses to finish outside the top ten alongside defending champion Rory McIlroy (making his first PGA Tour start of the season after strong form overseas on the DP World Tour). Add in red hot names like Si Woo Kim, Justin Rose, recent winner Chris Gotterup, and last week’s runnerup Hideki Matsuyama, and there’s no shortage of legitamite contenders. Mix in a ton of short course snipers and the result is an action packed birdiefest. Amateurs will play alongside the pros in the opening two rounds, but that wrinkle doesn’t affect DFS scoring at all . We’re still chasing individual performance.
Pebble itself is short by modern standards and features some of the smallest greens on Tour, turning this into a precision contest where wedge play, scrambling, and putting separate contenders from pretenders. With greens this tiny, bad aproach shots will land you in the thick or the sand, and the players who recover best will be the ones around on Sunday.
Last Week Recap & DFS Reflection
Last week’s tournament was chaos in the best possible way.
Scottie Scheffler actually looked human after Round 1 before going nuclear the rest of the week and nearly stealing the tournament from way off the pace. Meanwhile, Hideki Matsuyama looked in control until late mistakes opened the door for Chris Gotterup, who snuck in from behind, forced a playoff, and grabbed the win. Several players were within a shot or two late Sunday, creating a very entertaining finish and making one thing certainly clear, Chris Gotterup is a damn good golfer.
From a DFS perspective, that finish rolls directly into this week’s biggest decision. Scheffler is projecting for 45%+ ownership, largely because pricing makes it easy to fit him into competitive builds. With so much value available, rostering Scottie isn’t restrictive which pushes ownership even higher.
So the key DFS question becomes: Do you fade the inflated ownership and hope Scheffler doesn’t finish top three, or do you go heavy and simply try to find the right pieces around him?
Adding leverage to the slate, several players who disappointed last week such as: Cam Young, Sam Burns, Matthew McCarty, Harry Hall, Ben Griffin, Xander Schauffele, and Chris Kirk will now come in at suppressed ownership despite similar upside. Bounce back weeks from these types often decide tournaments.
Metrics That Matter This Week
Outside of Rory overpowering the course last year, Pebble Beach isn’t a bomb and gouge, measure your dicks contest. This is an accuracy track.
The formula this week is simple:
- Greens in Regulation
• Scrambling & Sand Saves
• Strokes Gained Putting
• Putting Inside 10 Feet
• Experience on Poa annua greens
Hit greens. Save pars when you miss. Roll the rock.
Pitfalls & DFS Mistakes This Week
- Getting the Scottie decision wrong. Too much exposure duplicates lineups; too little kills you if he wins.
- Overreacting to last week’s results. Poor finishes don’t automatically carry forward.
- Ignoring short-course specialists. Bombers don’t always dominate here.
- Chasing average putting stats instead of spike putting upside. You need players who can get hot, not just steady.
Pricing Tier Breakdown
Rather than listing half the field, we focus on key ownership decisions and leverage pivots.
Elite Tier — Core Decision
Scottie Scheffler ($14,000)
Scottie Scheffler isn’t just the best golfer in this field, he’s operating on another planet right now. This is the most dominant run we’ve seen since Tiger Woods, and when a golfer gets mentioned in the same breath as Tiger….you know he’s a fucking phenom.
Scheffler sits at $14,000, miles ahead of the field in pricing, yet lineup construction still makes it easy to get to him. So the question isn’t if you play Scottie, it’s how much. I’ll still have plenty of Scheffler exposure but will come in slightly under the field, hunting leverage while still respecting his upside.
Upper Elite Tier (11.5K–9K)
Russell Henley ($9,200) — Chalk Play
Projected ownership around 26%, and honestly it’s justifiable. If there’s a spot for Henley, this is it. Metrics align perfectly and the pathway to success is clear. This might be a chalk piece you simply can’t ignore.
Si Woo Kim ($9,700) — Chalk Play
Projected around 23% ownership. Five top-five finishes in his last six starts and solid course history make him hard to ignore. I’ll come in slightly under the field, but you still need exposure if the heater continues.
Tommy Fleetwood — Leverage
At roughly 14% ownership, Fleetwood offers leverage with elite iron play and upside if the putter heats up. Strong pivot away from heavier chalk.
Justin Rose — Leverage
Finished third here last year, won here previously, and is coming off a win. Boom or bust profile, and I’ll be overweight, betting the heater continues.
Hideki Matsuyama — Leverage
Ownership around 13%. Current form is elite, and Pebble minimizes his driver weakness. Slightly overweight leverage play.
8K Tier
Jason Day — Chalk Fade
Strong history here, but elevated ownership makes him less appealing. I’ll have exposure but be underweight.
Matt Fitzpatrick — Neutral Chalk
Recent strong form and metrics fit. I’ll sit right around field average.
Sam Burns — Leverage
7% ownership. Needs to get his shit together, but if he finds greens and putts well, he contends. Strong bounce-back candidate.
Daniel Berger — Leverage
Won here last time he played. If the putter heats up, he can win again. I’ll be significantly overweight.
Cam Young — Leverage
Disappointing last week suppressed ownership. Gains strokes everywhere when clicking. Strong pivot.
7K Tier
Jake Knapp — Chalk
15% ownership with putting upside. I’ll have exposure but come in slightly under.
Ryan Gerard — Core Leverage Play
One of my favorite plays of the week. Elite approach numbers and green-hitting ability. I’ll be well overweight and making my stand here.
Taylor Pendrith — Leverage
Two top-10s here and only 6% ownership. Course suits his short game. Overweight.
Alex Noren — Leverage
Strong putter and green hunter at just 5% ownership. Course suits his game. Overweight bounce-back candidate.
Value & Dart Tier (Sub-7K)
Michael Kim — Value Chalk
Solid approach and putting upside. I’ll be around field average.
Tom Hoge — Course Horse
Strong history here. Limited exposure as I take risks elsewhere.
Sami Välimäki — Leverage
Elite putting upside at 2% ownership. I’ll be overweight.
Chris Kirk — Leverage
Recent struggles suppress ownership, but a spike putting week makes him viable.
Max McGreevy — Dart
Green-hitting ability gives upside at minimal ownership. Gut-feel overweight play.
Matthew McCarty — Outsider Dart
1% ownership. Green hunter who can spike with the putter. Perfect outsider swing.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Hey Meatballs! I guess you are looking for my expertise on this weeks Tournament??? Of course you are….Why wouldnt you? I mean I’ve faded more things in my life than the local barber. This week I’m fading a guy whos names both start with S. No ya mamaluke…Not Scottie 2 hottie Sheffmiester, Im talking about Sepp Straka. This guy’s name sounds like a virus created in some lab in China. Never trust somone when someone’s first name sounds like sip. Sounds like he wants to take a drink in the water at Pebble. Trust me, at projected ownership of 16% at 7700, you can fade this guy for a list of other iron swipers in the same range who can do a lot better for ya. So, just do it, cuz Frankie said so!!! Capisce?
Lineup Construction & Final Thoughts
These aren’t lock and load button picks. This is about understanding lineup construction and ownership leverage. When you’re building a lot of lineups, success comes from finding players with similar upside to the chalk at lower ownership. You don’t fade chalk just to be different, but you build differently around it.
Because splitting a win with five people doesn’t hit the same.
This week especially, there are plenty of ways to build around Scheffler while still gaining leverage. Sometimes it’s leaving salary on the table. Sometimes it’s trusting a 2–5% play over a safer 12–15% option.
My approach narrows the field to a core group rather than throwing darts everywhere. I want exposure to players who hit greens, scramble well, and can spike putting weeks. Let’s be clear about this: I’m not chasing min cashes. Breaking even does nothing for me. My style is high risk/ high reward, chasing tournament wins, embracing variance, and trusting leverage.
Best of luck this week.
And remember:
Being different is what makes the difference.
