Football Is Finally Back
Man, it feels like it has been ten damn years since the Super Bowl ended and the Seattle Seahawks were crowned champions. The NFL offseason always feels long, but this one felt especially brutal. Sure, we get Best Ball drafts, free agency, trades, offseason news, training camp reports and all the speculation that comes with them. We even get the preseason, which quite frankly has never done much for me outside of trying to figure out roles and depth charts. It gives us something to talk about, but it is not the same. There is nothing like an actual Sunday when every game matters and we finally get to see whether all the shit we talked about for six months was right or completely wrong.
Week 1. Real football.
Every team starts fresh. Every fan base has hope, every coaching staff gets its first chance to show us what it has been building, and every new group of players finally has to prove it can actually work together. Football is about talent, but it is also about chemistry, coaching, momentum and whether a team can develop the right vibe over the course of a season. Staying healthy might be the biggest part of the entire equation because an 18 week season with only one week off is an absolute grind on these players. By the time January arrives, the team with the most talent on paper is not always the team still standing. The teams that rise to the top usually find a way to stay healthy enough, put themselves in position to make the playoffs and then get hot when it matters most.
Last season was a pretty damn good reminder that we do not know nearly as much in September as we sometimes pretend we do. Who honestly had Sam Darnold leading the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl championship? In the middle of August, DraftKings had Seattle sitting at +6500 to win Super Bowl LX, which tells you just how far outside the championship conversation they were before the season began. Who had Drake Maye and the New England Patriots emerging from the AFC and playing for a Lombardi Trophy? Yet Seattle eventually beat New England 29 to 13 in the Super Bowl and completely changed the way we look at both franchises heading into this season. That is the NFL, and that uncertainty is part of what makes Week 1 so much damn fun.
We have an entire season of statistics from last year, offseason roster moves, coaching changes, projected depth charts, preseason reports and months worth of opinions about who improved and who got worse. Some of that information absolutely matters, and we are going to use plenty of it throughout this article, but we also have to understand what Week 1 really is. We do not completely know how these new pieces are going to fit together yet. We do not know exactly how aggressive a new coordinator will be, whether a new offensive line will gel immediately or whether a talented secondary will actually communicate well once the games count. There are teams we think are good and teams we think are bad, but there is still a hell of a lot that has to be sorted out on the football field. For DraftKings, that uncertainty is not something I am afraid of because uncertainty can create opportunity.
I play PGA DFS and NASCAR DFS, and I have had plenty of success with both, but football is my baby. This is the shit I love. I love digging into matchups and trying to isolate the leverage plays that can actually separate a lineup in a massive tournament. I want to know which chalk deserves to be played, which chalk I am willing to fade and where the field might be overlooking a player or an entire game environment. I love finding one of those games that nobody seems interested in and asking whether there is a realistic path for it to turn into a 35 to 31 shootout. Sometimes the difference between a lineup that goes nowhere and one that has you sweating first place late Sunday afternoon is simply telling a different story than everybody else.
This Week 1 DraftKings main slate gives us 12 games, which means 24 starting quarterbacks before we even begin sorting through running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and defenses. The number of possible lineup combinations gets ridiculous very quickly, and you can identify a whole bunch of great individual plays without ever getting anywhere near the winning lineup. That is why I think lineup construction matters just as much as finding good players. I hand build my lineups from the ground up because I want every lineup to have a reason for existing. I will run an optimizer just to see what the projections naturally want to produce, and there is absolutely skill involved in properly customizing an optimizer, but it is not how I prefer to build. I want to look at every lineup and understand exactly what needs to happen for that particular combination of players to reach the top of a tournament.
Every lineup starts with some version of the same question: What if this happens? What if the popular running back fails while the guy at five percent ownership scores twice? What if everybody stacks the obvious high total game while another game sitting in the middle of the slate turns into an absolute track meet? What chalk am I willing to eat, where can I pivot, and where can I find low owned value that allows the rest of my lineup to be constructed differently? That does not mean being different simply for the sake of being different because sometimes the obvious play is obvious for a damn good reason. The goal is to understand what the field is doing, decide where I agree with it and then find intelligent places where my lineup can tell a different story.
I also spend real time at defense because that position can become the secret sauce of an NFL slate. A defense that generates four or five sacks, forces a couple of turnovers and finds the end zone can completely change a tournament, yet a lot of people still treat DST like the last thing they click after spending the rest of their salary. I want to look at offensive line mismatches, pressure opportunities, quarterbacks who struggle when the pocket collapses and game scripts that could force an offense into obvious passing situations. The most expensive defense is not automatically the best DraftKings play, just like the cheapest defense that fits your lineup is not automatically good value. Sometimes that lower owned defense with a legitimate path to sacks and turnovers becomes the piece nobody was thinking about when they built the rest of the lineup. We are going to spend time on those spots every week because defense can absolutely be a slate breaker.
And then there is the part of football that makes Sundays so damn entertaining: the game within the game. I am a Colts fan by heart, and there is something pretty cool about opening the season against the Baltimore Ravens, the franchise tied to so much history between those two cities. I am excited to see what Indianapolis looks like with a healthier secondary, and I want to see whether Daniel Jones can get back to the level he showed before injuries derailed last season. But when the DraftKings contests lock, fandom has to take a back seat because if a Ravens player belongs in one of my lineups, that bastard is going in the lineup. That is one of my favorite parts of DFS because suddenly you have something riding on games all across the slate, and a random fourth quarter drive between two teams you normally would not care about can have you standing three feet from the television begging a six percent owned receiver for eight more yards.
Football gives us the next 18 weeks to learn exactly what these teams are going to become. Roles will become clearer, coaching tendencies will reveal themselves, weaknesses will get exposed and our information will become better every single week. Week 1 is different because we are working with more uncertainty than we will have almost any other time during the season, and I think that should make us excited rather than scared. There are 12 games sitting in front of us, a ridiculous number of possible lineup combinations and plenty of opportunities for the field to be too confident about something it does not actually know yet. Our job is to find the spots where the matchup, opportunity, ownership and price come together and then build lineups that make sense around those ideas. Football is finally back, and now it is time to start figuring out which stories we want our lineups to tell.
DraftKings Slate at a Glance
Week 1 gives us 12 games on the DraftKings main slate, and the early Vegas board gives us a pretty clear picture of where the expected scoring is concentrated. That does not mean we simply load up on the highest total games and call it a day because that is not a sharp way to build tournament lineups. The goal is to identify the strongest individual plays and stacks within those environments, understand where ownership is going to concentrate, and then decide where we can intelligently get different. A lower total game can absolutely produce a tournament winning stack if the scoring becomes concentrated or the field simply ignores it. This board is nothing more than our starting point before we dig into each matchup and figure out where the real opportunities may be hiding.
| Matchup | Venue | Spread | Total | Implied Score | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | Paycor Stadium, Outdoor | CIN −3.5 | 50.5 🟢 | CIN 27.0, TB 23.5 | Looks clean |
| New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions | Ford Field, Dome | DET −7 | 49.5 🟢 | DET 28.25, NO 21.25 | Indoor |
| Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts | Lucas Oil Stadium, Retractable Roof | BAL −3.5 | 47.5 🟢 | BAL 25.5, IND 22.0 | Weather protected |
| Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers | SoFi Stadium, Roofed | LAC −10 | 47.5 🟢 | LAC 28.75, ARI 18.75 | Weather protected |
| Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers | Bank of America Stadium, Outdoor | CHI −3 | 46.5 🟢 | CHI 24.75, CAR 21.75 | Monitor storms |
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | U.S. Bank Stadium, Dome | MIN −1.5 | 46.5 🟢 | MIN 24.0, GB 22.5 | Indoor |
| Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans | NRG Stadium, Retractable Roof | BUF −1.5 | 44.5 🟡 | BUF 23.0, HOU 21.5 | Weather protected |
| Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | Lincoln Financial Field, Outdoor | PHI −4.5 | 44.5 🟡 | PHI 24.5, WAS 20.0 | Monitor rain |
| Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | Acrisure Stadium, Outdoor | PIT −3.5 | 42.5 🟠 | PIT 23.0, ATL 19.5 | Looks clean |
| Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars | EverBank Stadium, Outdoor | JAX −8.5 | 40.5 🔴 | JAX 24.5, CLE 16.0 | Monitor storms |
| Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders | Allegiant Stadium, Dome | LV −3.5 | 40.5 🔴 | LV 22.0, MIA 18.5 | Indoor |
| New York Jets at Tennessee Titans | Nissan Stadium, Outdoor | TEN −1.5 | 39.5 🔴 | TEN 20.5, NYJ 19.0 | Monitor |
Scoring Environment Key: 🟢 44.5 and above | 🟡 43.0 to 44.5 | 🟠 41.5 to 42.5 | 🔴 41.0 and below
There are no major weather concerns jumping off the page early in the week, although Cleveland at Jacksonville, Chicago at Carolina, Washington at Philadelphia and New York at Tennessee are worth keeping an eye on as Sunday gets closer. The obvious attention is going to start with Tampa Bay at Cincinnati, while New Orleans at Detroit, Baltimore at Indianapolis and Arizona at Los Angeles also carry healthy implied scoring environments. The interesting part comes when we start asking whether games like New York at Tennessee or Cleveland at Jacksonville can outperform ugly Vegas totals while attracting almost no ownership. That is where the game by game work begins.
Top Game Environments
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
This is the obvious premier game environment on the slate, but obvious does not automatically mean best for tournaments. The ownership is going to be heavy around Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, and probably for good reason, but that creates leverage opportunities if the game disappoints or if you use it more selectively as a one off environment. There are also plenty of ways to get different inside the game itself with alternative bring backs, secondary stack pieces, or different game scripts. If you are eating the chalkier combinations, the rest of the lineup needs to separate somewhere. I definitely want exposure here, but the key is not simply playing the most obvious version of the game.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
This is one of my favorite tournament environments because the total is healthy without carrying the same ownership gravity as Tampa Cincinnati. DeAndre Swift is a major part of the appeal because Carolina’s run defense gives him a path to success on the ground, while his ability to get outside and catch passes keeps his ceiling alive in multiple game scripts. On the Carolina side, Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker give us lower owned receiving options that can absolutely push this game if Carolina is forced to throw. There are enough affordable pieces on both sides to build the game in different ways without destroying the rest of the lineup. This is the kind of matchup where I think the actual DFS ceiling could be higher than the field expects.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
This game interests me because there are several completely different ways it can play out. The game control version is Omarion Hampton paired with the Chargers DST, with Los Angeles getting ahead and Hampton benefiting from volume and scoring opportunities. If Arizona pushes back, then Justin Herbert becomes more attractive with pieces like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, while Hampton can still contribute through the passing game. The Chargers also have basically a three headed group at tight end, and any one of those guys could randomly become the cheap piece that catches a touchdown and swings a tournament lineup. On the other side, Jacoby Brisset can be paired with Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Michael Wilson if you believe this game becomes much more aggressive than the spread suggests. This one gives us both game control and shootout paths, which makes it one of the more flexible environments on the slate.
Best Chalk to Eat
Jahmyr Gibbs, $8,000
There is really not much to dislike about Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 1. With David Montgomery gone, Gibbs enters the season as the unquestioned centerpiece of the Detroit backfield, and there are very few running backs in football who can beat you in as many different ways. He can run between the tackles, bounce outside, catch screens, split out as a receiver and turn a routine touch into a 50 yard play. Detroit is at home, playing indoors, and carries one of the highest implied team totals on the slate against a New Orleans defense that does not scare me away from attacking on the ground. A workload approaching 25 touches would not surprise me at all if the game stays in Detroit’s control. The problem is ownership, because if Gibbs pushes toward 40 percent, every lineup without him gains enormous leverage if he happens to disappoint. I am still eating the chalk, but I also understand exactly what fading him can do for the lineups where I choose to go another direction.
Chris Olave, $6,700
I am willing to eat the ownership on Chris Olave because he enters Week 1 as the clear focal point of the New Orleans passing game. He finished last season playing some of his best football, and the Saints still list him atop the receiving depth chart heading into Detroit. New Orleans has enough around him to keep defenses honest, but this passing game should still funnel through Olave when they need to move the football. The Lions secondary has talent, but it is not a matchup that makes me want to run from Olave’s combination of route volume, target share and explosive ability. If New Orleans falls behind against this Detroit offense, the game script could also force more passing volume and give Olave a path to double digit targets. At $6,700, I think the ceiling justifies eating some ownership here.
Jonathan Taylor, $7,300
Jonathan Taylor might be one of the most underappreciated elite running backs in football. He does not always get the same attention as some of the flashier names, but all he did last season was lead the league in carries and total touchdowns while finishing with 1,585 rushing yards, 18 rushing touchdowns and 20 total scores. He also added 46 receptions for 378 yards, so he is not some touchdown dependent two down back who disappears when Indianapolis has to throw. Baltimore is a good defense, but if there is an area I would rather attack, it is on the ground. The Ravens allowed 4.2 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns last season, which is solid but not remotely untouchable. Taylor handled 323 carries last year, including monster workloads like 32 against Atlanta, and we already know Indianapolis is willing to put the offense on his back when the game calls for it. With Daniel Jones back under center and the offense entering Week 1 healthy, I think Taylor’s ceiling belongs in the same conversation as Gibbs, and I am more than willing to eat the ownership at $7,300.
Best Chalk to Fade
Saquon Barkley, $6,900
Call me crazy, but I am fading Saquon Barkley at this ownership. Washington was poor against the run last season, but they did make real changes up front, and this is not the exact same defense Philadelphia bullied a year ago. Barkley is still running behind one of the best offensive lines in football, so this is not me saying the matchup is bad or that he cannot have a good game. The issue is ceiling relative to ownership. Outside of the massive game against the Giants last season, there were a lot more solid 15 to 20 point type performances than true slate breaking scores. If he is pushing around 15 percent ownership, I would rather use that roster spot on a lower owned back with a similar or better path to 25 plus DraftKings points. This is a pure tournament fade based on ownership, ceiling, and opportunity cost.
Jared Goff, $6,000
I am also fading Jared Goff as one of the more popular quarterbacks on the slate. New Orleans quietly finished as one of the better pass defenses in football last year, and their weakness was much more pronounced against the run. That matters because Detroit does not need Goff to throw 40 times to win this game. They can lean heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs, control the game on the ground, and still score plenty of points without Goff ever reaching the kind of ceiling we need in a large field tournament. At $6,000, I just do not think his path to 25 plus DraftKings points is strong enough to justify eating the ownership when there are cheaper quarterbacks with similar or better rushing, stacking, or shootout upside. Could he have a good game? Absolutely. I just do not think a good game is enough at this price and ownership.
Best Leverage Games
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
This is one of my favorite leverage environments on the slate. The total sits at 46.5, the spread is basically a coin flip, and Minnesota is actually a slight favorite at home. Green Bay enters Week 1 without Micah Parsons, who is expected to begin the season on PUP, and that is a massive missing piece for a defense trying to contain a Minnesota offense that suddenly has a lot more ways to attack. Kyler Murray is now under center with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, and a backfield featuring Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. I really like Minnesota’s chances to win this game outright, and if they get ahead, that could force Jordan Love into a more aggressive script with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and the rest of that Green Bay receiving room. This game has enough offensive talent on both sides to push past the 46.5 total without carrying the same ownership as the obvious chalk games.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
This one is completely different. The total is only 39.5, which means almost nobody is going to want to stack it, and that is exactly why I am interested. Both teams were bad last season, but both offenses look materially better heading into 2026. Tennessee now gives Cam Ward a much stronger group with Carnell Tate, Wan’Dale Robinson, Calvin Ridley, and Tony Pollard, while the Jets have Geno Smith, a healthy Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and additional receiving and tight end options around them. Both defenses gave up plenty of explosive scoring performances last season, so I am willing to bet that these offenses have improved faster than the market is giving them credit for. I am not going crazy here, but I absolutely want some one offs and a few low owned stacks from this game, and I like the over as a straight gut shot against one of the lowest totals on the slate.
Sneaky Stacks
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Chalk Stack: Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan + DeAndre Swift
This is the more obvious way to attack the game. McMillan is Carolina’s premier receiving weapon, while Swift gives you a bring back who can win on the ground or through the passing game. If this game reaches its ceiling, both players have clean paths to being heavily involved.
Leverage Stack: Bryce Young + Jalen Coker + Colston Loveland
This is the version I like if we want to attack the same game while getting away from the more obvious pieces. Coker gives us a cheaper and lower owned Carolina receiver, while Loveland gives Chicago exposure without paying for one of its more popular skill players. The bet is still that this game gets moving offensively, but the touchdowns and volume land somewhere different than the field expects.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Chalk Stack: Jordan Love + Jayden Reed + Justin Jefferson
If this game gets into a back and forth script, this is the cleanest construction. Reed gives Love one of his primary weapons, while Jefferson is the obvious Minnesota bring back with the ability to completely break the slate.
Leverage Stack: Jordan Love + Christian Watson + Jordan Addison
Same game environment, completely different path. Watson gives you the big play ceiling on the Green Bay side, while Addison provides a cheaper and likely lower owned way to capture Minnesota scoring. If the touchdowns avoid Reed and Jefferson, this construction can jump a lot of lineups built around the more obvious pieces.
Sneaky Sneaky Stack: Malik Willis + Malik Washington
Now we are getting weird. Malik Willis is only $5,300 and brings legitimate rushing upside, while Malik Washington is just $4,200 and enters Week 1 as one of Miami’s starting receivers. Miami opens at Las Vegas, and almost nobody is going to build their lineups around this combination. Willis does not need to throw for 350 yards to produce a tournament score because his legs can do part of the work, and Washington does not need massive volume at his salary if he can create one or two explosive plays. This is not something I am loading up on, but in a large field tournament it is exactly the kind of low owned stack I am willing to sprinkle in and see if something weird happens.
Best One Off Plays
Garrett Wilson, $5,800
I did not even have to think very hard about this one. Garrett Wilson at $5,800 is simply too cheap for the talent and target ceiling he brings into a matchup with Tennessee. He remains the clear WR1 for the Jets, and the Titans allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete nearly 69 percent of their passes last season while surrendering over 4,200 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. People naturally hesitate to click Jets players, and I completely understand why, but that is part of what makes Wilson appealing in tournaments. I do not need to stack this entire game every time I use him. At this salary and potentially modest ownership, Wilson is exactly the type of elite talent I am comfortable using as a standalone piece.
DK Metcalf, $5,400
DK Metcalf had a relatively quiet first season in Pittsburgh, but $5,400 still feels cheap for his physical ceiling. The Steelers added Michael Pittman Jr., which should make it harder for defenses to devote everything to Metcalf, and the offense now has more legitimate receiving options around Aaron Rodgers. The Week 1 matchup is Atlanta, not Arizona, and I am not going to pretend the Falcons secondary is weak because it was actually one of the stronger groups in football last season. This is more about betting on an elite physical receiver at a discounted salary than attacking a bad defense. Metcalf does not need ten catches to matter because a couple explosive plays and a touchdown can put him into tournament winning territory very quickly. At $5,400, I am willing to take some chances on that ceiling.
David Montgomery, $6,000
I really like David Montgomery as a standalone tournament running back in his first game with Houston. Buffalo finished 28th in rushing yards allowed last season, so if there is an area of this defense I want to challenge, it is on the ground. Montgomery spent the last few seasons sharing the Detroit backfield and still consistently showed that he can run through contact, handle goal line work, and create explosive plays when given volume. Houston traded for him this offseason, and this is an opportunity for him to remind people that he is capable of carrying a much larger workload than he had alongside Jahmyr Gibbs. He also has a history of contributing as a receiver, which gives him more ways to get there than simply hoping for two short touchdowns. At $6,000, I am completely comfortable using Montgomery without forcing the rest of the Buffalo Houston game around him.
Best Game Control Running Back Scripts
Omarion Hampton, $6,800 + Chargers DST, $3,500
Omarion Hampton might be one of my favorite tournament running backs on the entire slate. He enters Week 1 as the clear RB1 for Los Angeles, and Arizona allowed 2,158 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns last season. The game script is incredibly easy to visualize with the Chargers entering as heavy favorites. Los Angeles gets ahead, leans on the run game, mixes in play action, and Hampton starts piling up touches while the Chargers DST gets to attack an Arizona offense forced into obvious passing situations. Hampton also gives you receiving upside, so he does not need the Chargers to simply hand him the ball 25 times to have a ceiling game. At $6,800 and potentially modest ownership, a 100 yard bonus with one or two touchdowns is absolutely within his range of outcomes, and pairing him with the Chargers defense gives the lineup a very clear story.
Ashton Jeanty, $6,600 + Raiders DST, $2,900
The questionable tag on Ashton Jeanty may end up doing us a favor if it suppresses his ownership. His ankle injury is the lower ankle variety, and Las Vegas has remained optimistic about his availability for Week 1, although we will obviously want the final injury report before lock. Miami was vulnerable on the ground last season, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns, and that creates a very clean path for Las Vegas to lean on Jeanty if they can control the game. He showed enough as a rookie to remind us why he was such a highly regarded prospect, and I expect this offense to be built around establishing the run and letting Kirk Cousins work off it. If Las Vegas gets ahead, Jeanty could see exactly the type of volume that produces a 100 yard game with multiple touchdown upside. Pairing him with the Raiders DST is another lower owned way to bet on Las Vegas controlling the game from start to finish.
Best Punt Plays
Kenneth Gainwell, $5,200
I keep coming back to Kenneth Gainwell as one of my favorite cheaper running back plays. Tampa could easily find itself playing from behind against Cincinnati, and that is exactly the type of game script where Gainwell’s receiving ability becomes valuable. I am also not convinced Bucky Irving is automatically going to dominate every backfield touch from Week 1 forward. If Tampa is forced into a more pass heavy approach, Gainwell has already shown that he can turn catches out of the backfield into real DraftKings production. At $5,200, I am willing to take some chances on that role developing immediately.
Mekhi Lemon, $5,100
Mekhi Lemon is the type of player I want exposure to before everybody completely understands what his NFL role is going to become. He has an opportunity to earn real offensive snaps immediately, and his explosiveness gives him a path to paying off this salary without needing double digit targets. Any involvement in the return game only adds another opportunity for him to make something happen with the ball in his hands. At $5,100, I am betting on talent, opportunity, and the possibility that his role develops faster than the field expects.
Jalen Coker, $4,600
I really like Jalen Coker at this price. He finished last season showing us that he belongs in this offense, and his target volume began trending in the right direction down the stretch. Carolina now lists him as one of its starting receivers opposite Tetairoa McMillan, which gives him a much cleaner path to consistent routes and targets than the salary suggests. Chicago will have to devote plenty of attention to McMillan, and that could create opportunities elsewhere in the secondary. At $4,600 and potentially low ownership, Coker is one of the cheaper receivers I am most comfortable getting overweight on.
KC CONCEPCION, 4,600
Concepcion is another cheap receiver I am interested in sprinkling into tournament builds. There is explosive ability here, and I like taking chances on inexpensive players whose teams have legitimate plans to manufacture touches for them rather than asking them to win strictly as traditional outside receivers. If the return responsibilities are there as well, that simply creates another path to an explosive play. This is still a tournament play rather than something I am calling safe, but at $4,600 I do not need massive volume for him to pay off.
Jauan Jennings, $4,300
We already know what Jauan Jennings can do when opportunities come his way. He enters an offense with plenty of weapons around him, which may actually help keep defensive attention elsewhere and allow him to work into favorable matchups from different alignments. At $4,300, five or six targets can be enough if one of them finds the end zone. This is not a play where I am projecting massive volume, but the salary does not require it. Jennings has already shown enough ceiling for me to be comfortable using him as a cheap secondary piece.
Tre Tucker, $4,000
At $4,000, Tre Tucker is extremely difficult for me to ignore. He enters Week 1 atop the Raiders depth chart at receiver, and we have already seen what happens when his speed connects with volume. The three touchdown eruption against Washington last season showed the type of ceiling that exists even if those performances will obviously not happen every week. Miami is not a defense I am afraid to challenge, and Tucker’s ability to create explosive plays means he can pay off this salary without needing eight or nine receptions. At this price, I expect to have plenty of exposure.
Zachariah Branch, $3,800
Zachariah Branch is where we start getting into the fun stuff. Atlanta drafted him as an explosive all purpose weapon, and his college résumé included production as a receiver, runner, kick returner, and punt returner. He is currently behind Olamide Zaccheaus on the offensive depth chart, so I am not pretending he has a guaranteed full time receiving role in Week 1, but Atlanta does list him as its primary kick returner. At $3,800, the attraction is simple: get the ball into his hands a few times and see what happens. This is a true tournament dart with multiple paths to one explosive play completely changing his day.
Devaughn Vele, $3,500
Devaughn Vele may be my favorite pure salary punt of the group. New Orleans currently lists him as a starting receiver, and he finished last season earning legitimate volume with five or more targets in each of his final four games played. That is exactly what I want at $3,500 because I am not hoping for some fourth string receiver to accidentally stumble into two targets. Vele has a real offensive role, and the Saints could easily find themselves throwing more than they would prefer if Detroit gets ahead. At this salary, five or six targets with a touchdown gives him more than enough opportunity to become a tournament winning value.
Defensive Pressure Spots
Minnesota Vikings, $2,800
At $2,800, the Vikings are probably my favorite combination of price, pressure upside and tournament leverage. Minnesota finished last season with 49 sacks, with Dallas Turner leading the team with eight and Andrew Van Ginkel adding seven despite playing only 12 games. Turner really started becoming a problem late in the season, producing a 17 percent pressure rate from Week 11 forward while collecting 6.5 sacks over that stretch. Brian Flores is going to move these guys around, disguise pressure and make Jordan Love figure out where the hell everybody is coming from before the snap. If Green Bay has to start throwing aggressively in the second half, Turner and Van Ginkel get exactly the type of pass rush opportunities we are looking for. At only $2,800, I do not need Minnesota to completely dominate this game for the defense to become one of the better point per dollar plays on the slate.
Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,400
The Jaguars are the best pure pressure matchup of these four and probably the easiest defense to understand. Cleveland surrendered 51 sacks last season, and now enters Week 1 with a completely reconstructed offensive line that includes rookie Spencer Fano at left tackle protecting Deshaun Watson. Waiting for him on that side is Josh Hines Allen, who produced eight official sacks last season while PFF charted him with a ridiculous 95 total pressures and an 86.8 overall defensive grade. Jacksonville also has Travon Walker coming from the other side and Arik Armstead attacking the middle, so Cleveland cannot simply slide protection toward one player on every passing down. The Jaguars were also extremely productive creating turnovers last season, intercepting 22 passes and finishing with a plus 13 turnover differential. That is where this defense can become a tournament winner because four sacks are nice, but four sacks combined with two interceptions and a defensive touchdown can break a slate. Jacksonville will probably carry plenty of ownership, but this is one of those spots where the chalk makes a hell of a lot of sense.
Tennessee Titans, $3,100
The Titans are my sneaky pressure defense because everybody remembers how bad Tennessee was overall last season and may completely overlook what happened up front. The Titans still generated 42 sacks, and Jeffery Simmons was an absolute monster with 11 official sacks, 60 quarterback pressures, three forced fumbles and a 13.9 percent pressure rate according to Next Gen Stats. Now he gets a Jets offense that surrendered an unbelievable 60 sacks last season, the most concerning number of any offense we are targeting here. New York does return four offensive line starters and has made an effort to improve the group, so I am not blindly expecting another 60 sack disaster, but one offseason does not automatically erase what we saw. Tennessee can create pressure right through the middle with Simmons, which is especially valuable because quarterbacks cannot simply step up in the pocket to escape an edge rush. One Simmons strip sack can immediately create the type of turnover sequence we need from a tournament defense. At $3,100 and what should be considerably less ownership than Jacksonville, I think Tennessee is a really interesting way to attack the same pressure philosophy without following the field.
Indianapolis Colts, $2,400
And then we have my salary saver, the Colts at only $2,400. Baltimore is obviously a dangerous offense, so this is not me pretending the matchup is safe, but safety is not what I am buying at this salary. The Ravens surrendered 45 sacks last season, including 36 on Lamar Jackson in only 13 starts, while Indianapolis produced 39 sacks defensively. Laiatu Latu is the player I am watching because he led Indianapolis with 8.5 official sacks, and PFF charted him with 61 pressures and an 84.1 overall defensive grade last season. The Colts also added Arden Key opposite Latu, while DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart give them legitimate interior disruption, so this is not a defensive front that Baltimore can completely ignore. There is also considerably more playmaking talent behind the front now with Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum in the secondary, which increases the chances that pressure eventually becomes a turnover. Lamar can absolutely make this defense look stupid a few times because that is what Lamar does, but at $2,400 I am betting that a couple sacks, a turnover or two and possibly one huge defensive play can open enough salary to completely change the construction of the rest of my DraftKings lineup.
Frankie’s Fade
Hey, meatballs!
It is Week 1, everybody thinks they are a genius, and Frankie is already here to save you from doing something stupid. Five positions. Five names. Get the red pen ready because these bastards are getting crossed out.
Quarterback: Jayden Daniels, $6,500
Jayden, buddy, I hope you enjoyed the offseason because Frankie is sending you directly into the meat grinder. Daniels got beat to hell last season and only managed to play seven games, and now his reward is opening the year on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. He did not play against Philly at all last season, and I am not paying $6,500 to find out how comfortable he feels getting acquainted with that defense. Yes, he can run. Yes, the ceiling is always there. But at this price against this defense, Frankie says take those expensive running shoes somewhere else.
Running Back: Jeremiyah Love, $6,400
Frankie believes in love. He just does not believe in Jeremiyah Love this week. The kid is an absolute monster, but he is coming off a high ankle sprain and now has to travel to Los Angeles and deal with the Chargers defense. That sounds less like a romantic weekend and more like a terrible first date. Maybe he plays. Maybe he looks great. Maybe he gets eased back into action. For $6,400, Frankie is not paying to find out.
Wide Receiver: Emeka Egbuka, $6,200
Egg boka. Egg buka. Egg whatever the hell you want to call him, Frankie is cracking this egg and throwing it directly in the trash. Egbuka came out firing as a rookie, but look at what happened down the stretch. Through Week 10 he had 677 receiving yards and all six of his touchdowns. Over his final eight games he produced only 261 yards and zero touchdowns. Now we are paying $6,200 because everybody remembers how exciting he looked early last season? Not Frankie. Cincinnati’s secondary does not scare me nearly as much as paying for production that disappeared for half a season. Plus he is gimpy again.
Tight End: Sam LaPorta, $4,400
Close LaPorta.
That is it. Close the damn door.
I know Sam LaPorta can play, but this week I think Detroit looks at New Orleans and says, welcome to the Jahmyr Gibbs Show. If the Lions can control this game on the ground, I do not want to spend $4,400 hoping LaPorta is the guy who happens to catch one of the touchdowns. There are cheaper tight ends all over this slate with paths to similar production. Frankie is closing LaPorta and throwing away the key.
Defense: Green Bay Packers, $3,000
Hey Green Bay, where is Micah Parsons?
Oh yeah. He is on PUP.
Pack it up, Packers.
You are going into Minnesota without the best defensive player on your roster, and Frankie is not paying $3,000 to find out how much you miss him. Parsons changes what an offense has to do on every passing down, and Green Bay simply does not have another player who creates the same kind of problem. No Micah, on the road, divisional game. Pack your shit, Packers. Frankie is fading you.
Those are the fades, meatballs. If one of them goes for 40, don’t come crying to Frankie. I told you what I told you. CAPICE?
How I’m Building
It is fucking Week 1, and I am ready to build some lineups. But I do not want to build 150 lineups that all look like slightly different versions of what everybody else is doing. I want every lineup to have intention behind it and a reason why it can win. Leave some money on the table. Get a little freaky with the construction. Do not be afraid to click some of those names that feel uncomfortable when you know there is a legitimate path for them to get there. The uncomfortable click might be the exact one that separates your lineup from 100,000 others when Sunday gets crazy.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with eating chalk when the chalk is good. I am going to have plenty of Jahmyr Gibbs, Chris Olave, and some of the other popular plays we talked about because sometimes the field is right. The difference is what we do around them. If I am eating a couple pieces of heavy chalk, I want to find lower owned players, different correlations, cheaper defenses, unusual bring backs, or another game environment that gives the lineup its own identity. Mix and match these fucking things. Try different versions of your stacks and attack games from angles that most people are not considering.
And remember, salary is a tool, not a score we are trying to maximize. DraftKings gives us $50,000, but there is no rule saying we have to fucking spend all of it. If I love a lineup at $49,200, I am not changing a player I like just because there is $800 sitting there staring at me. Leaving salary creates different combinations, and different combinations are exactly what we need in these massive tournaments. Being different just to be different is stupid, but being intelligently different is where tournaments are won. There is a massive difference between clicking some random two percent owned player and finding a two percent owned player who actually has a legitimate path to 20 DraftKings points.
That is what this entire article is about. Find the chalk worth eating, identify the chalk worth fading, attack the game environments we believe can explode, look for leverage inside those games, and then build a lineup that tells one complete story. Some of those stories are going to be wrong as hell. That is DFS. We do not need all of them to be right. We need one lineup where the weird shit we believed could happen actually happens.
I am firing a shit ton of lineups into the $5 DraftKings Millionaire Maker this week, and I cannot fucking wait. Maybe Sunday night I am sitting here as a millionaire. Maybe one of you reading this is the one staring at that beautiful first place number. Either way, we are going to build with purpose, embrace the uncertainty, take some intelligent chances, and give ourselves a shot at the top of the leaderboard.
Football is back, baby.
Let’s go take down a motherfucking GPP.
It only takes one
