The NFL season got off to a pretty ugly start Wednesday night with Seattle and New England. We had two major injuries, Sam Darnold going down early and A.J. Brown getting hurt later, while Drake Maye threw three interceptions and never really looked comfortable. Outside of Jaxon Smith Njigba doing JSN things and looking nearly impossible to cover, there just was not much entertainment in that game. It was sloppy, low scoring football, and I remember thinking, man, I really hope this is not a sign of what we are about to get all season. Thankfully, San Francisco came out Thursday night and completely changed the vibe. Brock Purdy looked sharp, the 49ers defense swarmed to the football, and that offense just has too many freaking weapons to account for. How do you consistently defend Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, especially when their WR4s, WR5s and backup running backs are coming into the game and contributing too? I think that is going to make life really rough on opposing defenses. On the flip side, I do not want to overreact to one bad game from the Rams, especially with injuries becoming part of the story, but I really did not like how they failed to find ways to get Davante Adams the football. That was especially frustrating in the red zone, where he has been one of the best receivers in football for years. You are trying to get back into the game, you are inside the five yard line, and your best red zone target is standing on the sideline. Maybe there was a health or snap management reason behind it, but they struggled to get him involved throughout the game and that was very concerning. Sean McVay simply did not look like he had his team ready to play football. Maybe it was the long trip to Austria, maybe it was just one bad night, but I am definitely curious to see how the Rams respond moving forward.
Then Sunday showed up and the main slate was absolute freaking fireworks. Chicago and Carolina went completely insane, Minnesota and Green Bay produced another huge fantasy environment, and Detroit and New Orleans gave us plenty of scoring with Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon Ra St. Brown and Chris Olave all showing up. Buffalo walked into Houston and put 36 points on a defense we expected to be pretty damn good, while Baltimore destroyed Indianapolis and Jacksonville absolutely handled Cleveland. Everywhere you looked there were points, explosive plays and guys finding the end zone multiple times. For a Week 1 slate where we are always trying to figure out what is real and what is offseason noise, we got a hell of a lot of information right out of the gate.
The good news for us is that a lot of the stuff we talked about last week actually hit. Gibbs, Olave and Jonathan Taylor were all chalk plays I was willing to eat, and all three came through. On the flip side, I wanted to get away from Saquon Barkley and Jared Goff, and that worked out too. The Chicago and Carolina environment was one of the games I really liked, and it turned into exactly the kind of fantasy goodness we were hoping for. We also got a monster environment out of Green Bay and Minnesota, with Justin Jefferson finding the end zone twice and Christian Watson going nuts on the other side. I had some of the right stacks but ultimately you still have the right pieces everywhere around your stacks and sometimes its not quite enough. I have to love the process of my builds and giving myself opportunities for the big score. It all starts with the right stacks and game environments. A lot of plays came through.
There were surprises too, and that is where Week 1 gets interesting. The sheer amount of scoring was probably the biggest one. We had multiple guys scoring two touchdowns, huge team totals all over the slate, and several offenses that looked considerably more explosive than people expected. At the same time, a few teams raised immediate questions. Tennessee did not give me much confidence at home against the Jets despite adding more weapons around Cam Ward, and the Chargers looked flat in the loss to Arizona. My Week 1 overreaction might be that the Chargers are pretenders, but I think there is at least an argument there. Losing Ladd McConkey certainly did not help, but that offense has some things to figure out. Then we got to Monday night, and the Kansas City Chiefs looked like a real football team again. They dominated the line of scrimmage, committed to pounding Kenneth Walker III, and he rewarded them with more than 170 rushing yards. That run game opened everything else up for Patrick Mahomes, who looked comfortable and healthy moving around on that knee. When they did throw it, Kansas City found enough chunk plays to keep Denver honest, and suddenly you are looking at an offense where Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce do not have to carry the entire load every week. It might spread the fantasy production around a little more, but as an actual football team, the Chiefs looked balanced, healthy and dangerous again. Their defense looked damn good too.
As far as what I actually want to carry forward, a few things really stand out. Buffalo looks like it is going to be a very good football team, and DJ Moore gives that offense another dangerous piece. Baltimore looked scary with a fresh Lamar Jackson, while Derrick Henry somehow continues to show absolutely no signs of age. He is just a fucking beast, and we will see if that continues throughout the season. Chicago also has my attention. Was that just phenomenal quarterback play mixed with an explosive two headed running game, or is Carolina simply a defense we are going to attack all year? Maybe both??? I have the same question about Miami after Las Vegas put 27 points on them without Brock Bowers. And then there is Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence looked incredibly comfortable, threw four touchdown passes, and barely had to do anything in the second half because the game was already over. In a competitive environment, he might have gone completely nuts. He already has my attention as one of the quarterbacks I want to keep targeting, Parker Washington looks comfortable in this offense, and the new running backs both showed enough to make me want to see more. Week 1 gave us a ton to work with. Now the job is figuring out which of these performances were real and which ones were just one crazy Sunday.
DraftKings Week 2 Main Slate at a Glance
Scoring Environment Key:
🟢 48+ total
🟡 44 to 47.5
🟠 41 to 43.5
🔴 40.5 or lower
Weather Key:
🟢 No concern / roof controlled
🟡 Monitor
🟠 Potential concern
🔴 Significant concern
| Game | Kickoff | Venue | Spread | Total | Implied Score | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions at Bills | Thu 8:15 PM | New Highmark Stadium | BUF -4.5 | 🟢 53.5 | DET 24.5, BUF 29.0 | 🟠 Showers and thunderstorms possible, around 73°F |
| Eagles at Titans | Sun 1:00 PM | Nissan Stadium | PHI -7 | 🔴 39.5 | PHI 23.25, TEN 16.25 | 🟡 Hot around 96°F with a possible afternoon storm |
| Saints at Ravens | Sun 1:00 PM | M&T Bank Stadium | BAL -8.5 | 🟡 46.5 | NO 19.0, BAL 27.5 | 🟡 Humid with an afternoon thunderstorm possible |
| Packers at Jets | Sun 1:00 PM | MetLife Stadium | GB -4.5 | 🟡 44.5 | GB 24.5, NYJ 20.0 | 🟠 Rain possible throughout the day, around 74°F |
| Browns at Buccaneers | Sun 1:00 PM | Raymond James Stadium | TB -8.5 | 🔴 40.5 | CLE 16.0, TB 24.5 | 🟡 Hot and humid with an afternoon thunderstorm possible |
| Vikings at Bears | Sun 1:00 PM | Soldier Field | CHI -5.5 | 🟢 48.5 | MIN 21.5, CHI 27.0 | 🟠 Humid with thunderstorms currently in the forecast |
| Steelers at Patriots | Sun 1:00 PM | Gillette Stadium | NE -5.5 | 🟠 41.5 | PIT 18.0, NE 23.5 | 🟠 Periods of rain, around 66°F |
| Panthers at Falcons | Sun 1:00 PM | Mercedes Benz Stadium | CAR -2.5 | 🟠 43.5 | CAR 23.0, ATL 20.5 | 🟢 Dome, no weather concern |
| Bengals at Texans | Sun 1:00 PM | NRG Stadium | HOU -2.5 | 🟡 46.5 | CIN 22.0, HOU 24.5 | 🟢 Retractable roof, weather unlikely to matter |
| Raiders at Chargers | Sun 4:05 PM | SoFi Stadium | LAC -7 | 🟠 43.5 | LV 18.25, LAC 25.25 | 🟢 Covered stadium, no weather concern |
| Jaguars at Broncos | Sun 4:05 PM | Empower Field at Mile High | DEN -2.5 | 🟠 43.5 | JAX 20.5, DEN 23.0 | 🟡 Around 78°F with a possible afternoon thunderstorm |
| Dolphins at 49ers | Sun 4:25 PM | Levi’s Stadium | SF -12.5 | 🟡 45.5 | MIA 16.5, SF 29.0 | 🟢 Around 74°F with decreasing clouds |
| Seahawks at Cardinals | Sun 4:25 PM | State Farm Stadium | SEA -4.5 | 🟠 41.5 | SEA 23.0, ARI 18.5 | 🟢 Retractable roof, weather unlikely to matter |
| Commanders at Cowboys | Sun 4:25 PM | AT&T Stadium | DAL -3.5 | 🟢 50.5 | WAS 23.5, DAL 27.0 | 🟢 Retractable roof, weather unlikely to matter |
| Colts at Chiefs | Sun 8:20 PM | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium | KC -6.5 | 🟡 47.5 | IND 20.5, KC 27.0 | 🟡 Humid with an afternoon thunderstorm possible, monitor timing |
| Giants at Rams | Mon 8:15 PM | SoFi Stadium | LAR -7 | 🟢 48.5 | NYG 20.75, LAR 27.75 | 🟢 Covered stadium, no weather concern |
Early Weather Watch
It is still early in the week, so I am not making any major DFS decisions based on weather yet. The first game worth watching is Detroit at Buffalo on Thursday night. There are currently showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, and with a slate high 53.5 total, we obviously want to know if heavier rain or wind starts creeping into the picture before kickoff.
For the Sunday main slate, Packers at Jets, Vikings at Bears and Steelers at Patriots are the three games I am watching most closely right now. MetLife has rain in the forecast, Chicago is showing thunderstorm potential, and Foxborough could see periods of rain. None of that is enough for me to move off these games yet, but they are absolutely spots we will want to revisit later in the week.
Saints at Ravens, Browns at Buccaneers, Eagles at Titans and Jaguars at Broncos also have some thunderstorm potential. The bigger concern in Tennessee might actually be the heat, with temperatures potentially pushing into the mid 90s. Tampa should also be hot and humid, which is worth monitoring even if the rain never becomes a major factor.
For now, Dolphins at 49ers looks like one of the cleanest outdoor environments on the slate. The roof controlled games in Atlanta, Houston, Los Angeles, Arizona and Dallas should also be essentially immune from weather concerns. We will tighten this up again later in the week when the forecasts get closer to kickoff.
NFL Stadium Scoring, 2024 and 2025 Combined
Surface Key: 🟢 GRASS | 🔵 TURF
| Rank | Stadium | Primary Team | Surface | Games | Total Points | Avg. Combined Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ford Field | Lions | 🔵 TURF | 18 | 1,035 | 57.50 |
| 2 | Paycor Stadium | Bengals | 🔵 TURF | 17 | 969 | 57.00 |
| 3 | AT&T Stadium | Cowboys | 🔵 TURF | 17 | 924 | 54.35 |
| 4 | Highmark Stadium | Bills | 🟢 GRASS | 19 | 997 | 52.47 |
| 5 | Northwest Stadium | Commanders | 🟢 GRASS | 17 | 877 | 51.59 |
| 6 | Raymond James Stadium | Buccaneers | 🟢 GRASS | 18 | 883 | 49.06 |
| 7 | Lucas Oil Stadium | Colts | 🔵 TURF | 17 | 828 | 48.71 |
| 8 | M&T Bank Stadium | Ravens | 🟢 GRASS | 18 | 874 | 48.56 |
| 9 | Bank of America Stadium | Panthers | 🔵 TURF | 17 | 821 | 48.29 |
| 10 | Mercedes Benz Stadium | Falcons | 🔵 TURF | 17 | 808 | 47.53 |
| 11 | State Farm Stadium | Cardinals | 🟢 GRASS | 18 | 855 | 47.50 |
| 12 | Lumen Field | Seahawks | 🔵 TURF | 19 | 897 | 47.21 |
| 13 | Hard Rock Stadium | Dolphins | 🟢 GRASS | 17 | 793 | 46.65 |
| 14 | SoFi Stadium | Rams / Chargers | 🔵 TURF | 34 | 1,576 | 46.35 |
| 15 | Levi’s Stadium | 49ers | 🟢 GRASS | 18 | 825 | 45.83 |
| 16 | EverBank Stadium | Jaguars | 🟢 GRASS | 16 | 728 | 45.50 |
| 17 | Gillette Stadium | Patriots | 🔵 TURF | 19 | 843 | 44.37 |
| 18 | NRG Stadium | Texans | 🔵 TURF | 18 | 797 | 44.28 |
| 19 | Lincoln Financial Field | Eagles | 🟢 GRASS | 20 | 870 | 43.50 |
| 20 | Empower Field at Mile High | Broncos | 🟢 GRASS | 19 | 821 | 43.21 |
| 21 | Nissan Stadium | Titans | 🔵 TURF | 17 | 722 | 42.47 |
| 22 | U.S. Bank Stadium | Vikings | 🔵 TURF | 16 | 678 | 42.38 |
| 23 | MetLife Stadium | Giants / Jets | 🔵 TURF | 34 | 1,425 | 41.91 |
| 24 | Acrisure Stadium | Steelers | 🟢 GRASS | 18 | 753 | 41.83 |
| 25 | Lambeau Field | Packers | 🟢 GRASS | 17 | 711 | 41.82 |
| 26 | Soldier Field | Bears | 🟢 GRASS | 18 | 748 | 41.56 |
| 27 | Allegiant Stadium | Raiders | 🟢 GRASS | 17 | 706 | 41.53 |
| 28 | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium | Chiefs | 🟢 GRASS | 19 | 779 | 41.00 |
| 29 | Caesars Superdome | Saints | 🔵 TURF | 17 | 696 | 40.94 |
| 30 | Huntington Bank Field | Browns | 🟢 GRASS | 16 | 593 | 37.06 |
There is definitely something interesting here. The first thing that jumps out is that the top three scoring stadiums over this two year sample are all turf, and several more turf environments show up near the top. At the same time, there are some very high ranking grass stadiums, so I do not think we can simply say turf equals more scoring and call it a day. The teams playing in these buildings obviously matter, along with offensive philosophy, defensive quality, opponent strength, weather, pace and a hundred other factors.
But I also do not think we should completely dismiss this as random noise. We are talking about a spread from 57.5 combined points per game at Ford Field all the way down to 37.06 at Huntington Bank Field. That is more than a 20 point difference. Maybe part of that is the surface. Maybe part of it is the building itself, crowd noise, sight lines, weather protection, footing, offensive personnel or simply the types of teams that have played there. Most likely it is some combination of all of it. For DFS, I would never use stadium scoring as a standalone reason to play or fade a game, but as another piece of information layered on top of Vegas totals, matchups, weather and ownership, I think it can absolutely help us identify environments worth attacking.
Top Game Environments
Commanders at Cowboys is the first game I want to attack. The total is sitting at 50.5, and AT&T Stadium has been one of the highest scoring environments in football over the last two years. The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing divisional loss to the Giants, and I expect them to come out aggressive at home because starting 0 and 2 with another divisional loss would be a nightmare. On the other side, the Commanders looked solid against Philadelphia, and Jayden Daniels gives them enough firepower to keep this competitive. I could easily see this game getting over the total, and there are multiple fantasy pieces on both sides that can get there.
49ers at Dolphins is the second environment I like. We already know San Francisco can score, and that offense is loaded with too many weapons for most defenses to consistently account for. The question is whether Miami can do enough offensively to keep the game alive, because if they can settle in and move the football, there is a lot of fantasy goodness available here. The Dolphins defense got beat up by a Raiders team without their best player Brock Bowers, and I absolutely expect the 49ers to put points on the board. The real question is if Miami can keep this even remotely competitive? If they can I think this game gives us multiple ways to build around it.
Vikings at Bears rounds out my top three. The total is 48.5, and both offenses showed us in Week 1 that there is plenty of upside here. Chicago can absolutely run the football, they have explosive backs, and Caleb Williams gives them another dimension because he can extend plays and create when things break down. Minnesota showed plenty of offensive life too, and even if Kyler Murray cannot clear the concussion protocol, I do not think Carson Wentz kills this environment. Wentz has shown throughout his career that he is not always the most consistent quarterback, but he is absolutely capable of stepping in and having a big game. With all the weapons Minnesota has around him, this is a defense he can exploit. Either way, I do not think the quarterback situation changes my interest much. There are weapons all over both sides of this matchup, neither defense scares me enough to stay away, and this looks like a fantasy environment that could get shooty in a hurry.
Best Chalk to Eat
Bijan Robinson, $8,200 is the easiest one for me. Carolina just got absolutely destroyed on the ground, giving up 291 rushing yards, 7.5 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns to Chicago. That is fucking insane. Bijan is already one of the few backs in football I consider close to matchup proof, and now he gets this defense in Atlanta. He also showed in Week 1 that Cooper Rush being under center does not necessarily kill his production. Bijan handled 21 carries for 83 rushing yards and caught 8 of 10 targets for another 90 yards and a touchdown, giving him 29 total touches, 173 yards from scrimmage and 1 touchdown. That works out to 3.95 yards per carry and nearly 6 yards every time he touched the football. If anything, Atlanta may lean even harder on Bijan this week and let their best player carry the offense against a very suspect Carolina D. This is exactly the kind of spot where a massive ceiling game is on the table, and I am perfectly willing to eat the chalk.
Justin Jefferson, $7,800 is another chalk piece I am perfectly willing to eat. He came out in Week 1 and immediately reminded everyone who the hell he is, scoring twice and showing that the extra weapons around him are not going to hurt his ceiling. If anything, they make it harder for defenses to completely sell out to stop him. Chicago just allowed Carolina to move the football plenty despite getting blown out, and I think Minnesota is going to aggressively attack this secondary. Whether Kyler Murray clears the concussion protocol or Carson Wentz starts, Jefferson is still one of the premier ceiling receivers on the slate.
Chris Olave, $7,200 rounds it out for me. He did not even score a touchdown in Week 1 and still finished with 10 catches for 182 yards on 13 targets. That worked out to roughly a 23 percent target share, and the bigger picture is even stronger. Last season Olave commanded a 29.4 percent target share, finishing with 156 targets, 100 catches, 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns. He is very clearly the alpha in this passing game, and one huge performance has already carried straight into 2026. At $7,200, I am perfectly comfortable eating the ownership again against Baltimore because the volume is simply too good to ignore.
Best Chalk to Fade
Lamar Jackson 7300 is my first early chalk fade of the week. This is still Lamar, so obviously one or two big runs can completely wreck the fade. But I think the Saints defense is better than people are giving them credit for. They went into Detroit, played one of the better offenses in football extremely tough, and the game was tied 24 to 24 at the end of regulation. I respect this New Orleans secondary, and Baltimore is already dealing with a beat up receiver room with Zay Flowers and Ja’Kobi Lane both dealing with injuries.
If New Orleans can trust its secondary, that gives them more freedom to crowd the line of scrimmage and make life tougher on both Lamar and Derrick Henry. I also think this game could be considerably closer than Vegas is projecting. If Lamar gets up around 15 percent ownership, I would be much more comfortable somewhere in the upper single digits and take my chances that New Orleans keeps this game under control enough to prevent a slate breaking Lamar score.
Nico Collins, $7,000 is my second early chalk fade, assuming his ownership gets high enough. Nico was heavily involved in Week 1 with 10 targets, 7 catches, 75 yards and a touchdown, so this is not about fading the talent or the volume. This is about what Cincinnati showed defensively against Tampa Bay. The Bengals generated four sacks and four turnovers, pressured Baker Mayfield throughout the game, and held him to only 216 passing yards and zero passing touchdowns.
The Cincinnati secondary also held up behind that pressure. Emeka Egbuka finished with 63 yards, Chris Godwin had 40, and neither scored. If Cincinnati can create that same kind of pressure on C.J. Stroud, I think Nico’s ceiling becomes a little harder to reach at $7,000. If his ownership stays reasonable, I do not need to force the fade. But if the field starts piling onto him after the Week 1 touchdown and target volume, I am comfortable coming in significantly underweight.
Best Leverage Games
Jaguars at Broncos is probably my favorite leverage game on the slate. Jacksonville absolutely destroyed Cleveland 34 to 10, and the scary part is that Trevor Lawrence barely had to do anything in the second half. He finished 18 of 23 for 245 yards and four touchdowns, and Jacksonville was already up 31 to 0 in the third quarter. The running game looked good too, with Bhayshul Tuten handling 15 carries for 66 yards and Chris Rodriguez Jr. adding six carries for 23 yards. This offense has enough balance that Denver cannot simply sit back and try to take away Lawrence.
Denver, meanwhile, completely underachieved against Kansas City. The Broncos managed only 176 total yards and 10 points, while Bo Nix threw for just 131 yards. I expect a better game plan at home, and I think Jacksonville comes into this game with something to prove after what both teams showed in Week 1. The Jaguars have a chance to immediately start separating themselves in the AFC South, while Denver cannot afford another offensive performance like Monday night. With the Broncos favored by only 2.5 and our early total sitting at 43.5, I think this game has a legitimate chance to get over that number and become one of the sneakiest fantasy environments on the slate.
Packers at Jets is another game I think could quietly produce some fantasy goodness. The Jets looked much better than I expected in Week 1, putting up 367 total yards while controlling the football for almost 39 minutes. Geno Smith completed 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards, Breece Hall ran for 102 yards and a touchdown, and rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq immediately showed how New York wants to use his athleticism by scoring on an end around. This offense looked organized, efficient and considerably more dangerous than people may give it credit for.
On the other side, Green Bay just allowed Minnesota to score 29 unanswered points to close the game and watched Carson Wentz come off the bench and throw three touchdowns. Some of that final score was helped by turnovers, penalties and bad field position, so I do not want to pretend the Packers defense was solely responsible for all 39 points. But they still showed enough vulnerability that I am interested in seeing what this Jets offense can do against them. With a 44.5 total and Green Bay favored by only 4.5, this feels like another game that could stay competitive and quietly turn into a really useful tournament environment.
Sneaky Stacks in Good Games
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Popular Stack: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb + Stefon Diggs
This is probably the most obvious way the field attacks the game. Lamb remains the alpha in Dallas, Diggs led Washington with solid Week 1 production, and the game carries one of the highest totals on the slate. If this game turns into the shootout I think it can, this combination has an obvious path to a huge score.
Leverage Stack: Dak Prescott + George Pickens + Ryan Flournoy or Jake Ferguson + Antonio Williams
This version gives us access to the exact same game environment while getting away from the most popular pieces. Pickens only caught 3 of his 6 targets for 28 yards in Week 1, which could keep his ownership below Lamb’s despite the big play upside. Ryan Flournoy quietly saw 4 targets, while Jake Ferguson gives us touchdown equity at a position where one score can make a huge difference. On the Washington side, Antonio Williams caught 4 passes for 64 yards and a touchdown and could come in considerably lower owned than Diggs.
Packers vs. Jets
Popular Stack: Jordan Love + Christian Watson + Garrett Wilson
This feels like the obvious version after Christian Watson exploded for 147 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. Garrett Wilson remains the clear name people will naturally look toward on the Jets side, so I expect this combination to get considerably more attention if people decide to stack this game.
Leverage Stack: Jordan Love + Matthew Golden + Tucker Kraft + Breece Hall
This is the version I really like. Matthew Golden quietly saw 12 targets, catching 6 for 95 yards without scoring a touchdown. That is a massive amount of opportunity, but because Watson scored twice and Golden missed both the touchdown and 100 yard bonus, there is a good chance the box score keeps ownership lower than it should be. Tucker Kraft is another way to get different after catching 3 passes for 65 yards if he finds the endzone. On the other side, bringing it back with Breece Hall gives us a completely different game script. If the Jets control portions of this game on the ground and Hall has another big day, that could force Jordan Love to keep throwing and create exactly the kind of back and forth environment we want.
Best One Off Plays
Saquon Barkley, $7,000 is one of my favorite one offs on the slate. He ran 15 times for 83 yards in Week 1 without scoring, and Philadelphia now gets a Tennessee defense that just allowed the Jets to control the game on the ground. Saquon does not need this game to shoot out. Give me the volume, touchdown upside and a favorable game script where Philadelphia could be playing from ahead.
Ashton Jeanty is another running back I am perfectly comfortable playing by himself. He produced 147 yards from scrimmage in Week 1, including 102 rushing yards, and showed that his receiving role gives him multiple paths to a ceiling game. He does not need the rest of the Raiders offense to go crazy to put up a tournament winning score.
Garrett Wilson is probably my favorite wide receiver one off. He caught 6 of 7 targets for 79 yards in Week 1 and remains the clear centerpiece of the Jets passing game. The concentrated volume gives him a realistic path to a big score even if I am not stacking the entire Packers Jets game.
Emeka Egbuka, $6,400 is another receiver I like as a standalone piece. He led Tampa Bay with 5 catches for 63 yards in Week 1 and has already shown that he can command meaningful volume in this offense. The talent and big play ability are there, and I do not need a full Tampa stack to justify playing him.
Wan’Dale Robinson is more of a bounce back tournament one off. He still caught 5 of 6 targets in Week 1 despite the offense struggling, so the usage was encouraging even if the fantasy production was not. If the offense takes a step forward, he has a path to outperforming his price without carrying massive ownership.
At tight end, Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews, $4,400 are two of my favorite standalone options. Goedert opened the season with 4 catches for 77 yards and two touchdowns, while Andrews could become even more important with Baltimore already dealing with injuries in the receiver room. Neither guy needs a full game stack. At tight end, a handful of catches plus a touchdown can be more than enough to separate from the field.
Best Game Control Running Back Scripts
Christian McCaffrey, $8,000 + San Francisco D
I absolutely love Christian McCaffrey in this spot against Miami. The big conversation after Week 1 was rookie Kaelon Black getting 14 carries compared to only 10 for CMC, but there was some context behind that. McCaffrey was dealing with cramps during the game and still turned his 10 carries into 68 rushing yards, while catching 5 passes for another 20 yards. That is 88 yards on 15 touches, and he averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Black was impressive with 14 carries for 65 yards, but I am not suddenly worried about who runs this backfield.
Miami just allowed Ashton Jeanty to run for 102 yards while the Raiders controlled the football and beat them 27 to 13. If San Francisco gets ahead, I want CMC paired with the 49ers D and I am betting on that same kind of game script. McCaffrey also has enough receiving upside that he does not need 25 carries to completely smash. After everybody spent the week talking about Black getting more carries, I expect San Francisco to come out and “let everybody know who’s the boss in town.” CMC could be the reason this game gets out of hand in the first place.
Bucky Irving, $6,100 + Tampa Bay D
Bucky Irving gives me a similar game script at a much cheaper price. He only carried the ball 8 times against Cincinnati but produced 45 rushing yards and a touchdown, then caught all 7 of his targets for another 48 yards. That is 93 yards from scrimmage, 15 touches and a touchdown, while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Tampa was playing from behind for much of that game, which helped create the receiving work, but now I think we could see the opposite script.
Jacksonville just physically beat up Cleveland, outrushing them 126 to 87 and winning 34 to 10. I expect Tampa Bay to come out looking to take control of this game early, and Bucky should be a major part of that. If the Buccaneers D creates pressure, turnovers and short fields against this Cleveland offense, Bucky could spend the second half piling up carries with touchdown opportunities. Bucky Irving plus Tampa Bay D is one of my favorite cheaper game control correlations on the slate.
Best Punt Plays
Jadarian Price, $5,500
Price looked explosive in Week 1, turning 10 carries into 52 rushing yards, and I think this game gives him a much better opportunity for volume. Seattle should have a much better chance of controlling the game against Arizona than the Chargers did after turnovers completely wrecked their game script. If Seattle gets ahead and stays committed to the ground game, I think Price can pay off $5,500 pretty easily.
Antonio Williams, $4,400
Williams immediately got my attention with 4 catches for 64 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia, and he did it on only 10 routes. He clearly showed some early chemistry with Jayden Daniels, and now he gets the Dallas game that I already love as one of the best environments on the slate. If Dallas Washington gets shooty, Williams gives us cheap access to it without automatically paying up for Stefon Diggs.
Mack Hollins, $4,300 / Romeo Doubs, $5,000
A.J. Brown is out, and somebody in this New England receiver room is going to have to step forward. Hollins caught 4 of 5 targets for 51 yards in Week 1 and led the Patriots receivers in snaps after Brown went down. Doubs was absolutely terrible, failing to catch any of his three targets, which could make him very easy for the field to ignore. I expect Drake Maye and New England to attack Pittsburgh through the air at home, and I think at least one of these two receivers has a legitimate chance to have a big bounce back game.
Pat Bryant, $4,200
I am going right back to Bryant. He caught 4 passes for 42 yards in Week 1 and became more involved after Marvin Mims Jr. left with a hip injury. Denver has to get significantly more out of its passing offense this week, and I think Bryant has a chance to become a bigger part of the game plan against Jacksonville at a salary that still does not reflect much upside.
Caleb Douglas, $3,700
Douglas might be my favorite true salary saver of the bunch. The rookie caught 5 passes for 94 yards in his NFL debut and already looked like somebody who could quickly emerge Miami’s primary receiver. At $3,700, that is simply too cheap for a player who could be heavily involved in a game where Miami is very likely chasing points against San Francisco.
Jauan Jennings, $3,800
Jennings did absolutely nothing in Week 1 with zero catches on one target, which is exactly why I am interested at $3,800. We know the skill set is there, Minnesota has a ton of offensive weapons that defenses have to account for, and Chicago showed enough vulnerability through the air to keep me interested. One bad box score does not suddenly make Jennings incapable of having a productive game, and this is a great price for a bounce back dart.
Brenton Strange, $3,900
Strange only caught 2 passes for 23 yards in Week 1, but one of them went for a touchdown. Denver’s secondary is talented, which could encourage Trevor Lawrence to work underneath and through the middle of the field. At $3,900, another touchdown immediately puts Strange in position to pay off this salary.
T.J. Hockenson, $3,500
This price feels too cheap. Hockenson caught 4 of 5 targets for 36 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and looked healthy and involved again. Now he gets the Bears in one of my favorite fantasy environments of the week. At $3,500, another handful of catches with a touchdown would be more than enough, and the ceiling is higher if this game turns into the shootout I think it can.
Hunter Henry, $4,000
Henry belongs in the same New England conversation as Hollins and Doubs. With A.J. Brown out, there are targets that have to go somewhere, and Henry gives Drake Maye an experienced target in the middle of the field and around the end zone. If New England comes out throwing aggressively against Pittsburgh like I expect, Henry is another inexpensive way to get exposure to that bounce back passing game.
Defensive Pressure Spots
Eagles D, $3,700
Philadelphia only posted a 5.3 percent sack or hit rate in Week 1, but this is a matchup play for me. Tennessee struggled to consistently move the football against the Jets, and I like the Eagles at home with a chance to force Cam Ward into obvious passing situations. The price is high, but the sack and turnover ceiling is real.
Ravens D, $3,300
Baltimore generated a 26.5 percent sack or hit rate in Week 1 while adding two sacks, an interception and a fumble recovery. As an 8.5 point home favorite against New Orleans, this is one of my favorite defensive spots on the slate. You can also pair them with Derrick Henry for a clean Baltimore controls the game build.
Texans D, $3,000
Houston only produced a 9.4 percent sack or hit rate against Buffalo, but defending Josh Allen is a completely different assignment than defending Joe Burrow. Tampa still generated a 16.2 percent sack or hit rate against Cincinnati in Week 1, and I expect Houston’s established pass rush to bounce back at home. This is the lower owned tournament defense I want exposure to.
Jaguars D, $2,400
Jacksonville might be the best value of the group. They posted a 30 percent sack or hit rate in Week 1 while recording five sacks, an interception and a fumble recovery. At only $2,400 against a Denver offense that struggled badly in Week 1, I think this price is simply too cheap for the upside.
Bounce Back Plays
Colston Loveland, $5,000
Zero catches in a 59 point offensive explosion looks ugly, but Loveland was still on the field constantly and running routes. There is simply too much talent here for Chicago not to find ways to get him the football. Minnesota also has to respect this Bears running game, which should make it harder to devote extra attention to Loveland. I expect five plus targets with a legitimate chance to find the end zone.
Dak Prescott, $6,400
Dak threw for only 175 yards against the Giants, and the entire Dallas passing attack felt stuck in the mud. Now he comes home against Washington in one of my favorite environments on the slate, and Dallas absolutely does not want to begin the season 0 and 2 against divisional opponents. I expect considerably more passing volume and fireworks in Dallas.
Baker Mayfield, $5,600
Baker threw for only 216 yards with no passing touchdowns and lost three fumbles against Cincinnati. That was an ugly way to open the season, and I expect a much cleaner performance at home against Cleveland. Tampa should control this game, and Baker has plenty of weapons around him to put together a strong bounce back performance.
De’Von Achane, $6,700
Achane managed only 66 yards from scrimmage on 15 touches and failed to score in Week 1. Miami may be chasing points against San Francisco, but that could actually help his receiving volume. He is still the most dangerous offensive player Miami has, and they are going to have to manufacture touches for him if they want any chance of keeping this game competitive.
Emeka Egbuka, $6,400
Egbuka caught 5 passes for 63 yards in Week 1, so this was hardly a disaster, but I think there is considerably more ceiling here. He came through the opener healthy, remains one of Tampa Bay’s most dangerous weapons, and I expect him to be much more involved around the end zone this week.
DeVonta Smith, $6,800
Smith led Philadelphia with six targets in Week 1 but finished with only 3 catches for 53 yards. Now he gets a Tennessee defense I am perfectly willing to attack as Philadelphia’s new number one receiver. This feels like a great spot for Smith to remind everybody what his ceiling looks like.
Quentin Johnston
Johnston caught only 2 of 6 targets for 17 yards in an ugly Week 1 loss, but I am going right back to the well. The Chargers are home favorites against Las Vegas, Justin Herbert should have a much better performance, and Ladd McConkey is already dealing with a rib injury. Johnston has proven touchdown and big play upside, and one terrible box score is not enough to scare me away at a cheap salary.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week: Drake Maye, $6,100
Hey Meatballs!!
Frankie has seen enough of Drake Maye for now. The kid obviously has talent, but lately he has been playing less like Maye and more like mayonnaise. And we are not talking Hellmann’s here. We are talking that store brand shit sitting on the bottom shelf for half the price. He got beat the hell up in the Super Bowl to finish last season, got beat the hell up again by Seattle in Week 1, and now his reward is another date with Pittsburgh, T.J. Watt, and a defense that just generated four sacks and two interceptions in Week 1.
Maye will have better days this season, but Frankie is not paying $6,100 to find out if this is the one. New England is already dealing with injuries in the receiver room, Pittsburgh can create pressure without needing to send everybody, and another ugly afternoon is absolutely in the range of outcomes. Frankie says keep the mayonnaise in the refrigerator this week.
How I’m Building
My approach this week is pretty simple. I am going to have a very high concentration of Cowboys vs. Commanders and Vikings vs. Bears stacks. Different combinations, different runbacks, different one offs, and even some lineups that pull pieces from both games. I could easily see somewhere around 75 percent of my lineups starting around one of these two environments. There are a lot of games on this slate that just are not that sexy to me, and if the scoring ends up concentrated in one or two spots, I want a lot of tickets still alive when those games start going nuts. I will mix in some Green Bay stacks and possibly some San Francisco as well, but Dallas Washington and Minnesota Chicago are where I expect to plant my biggest flag.
The key is not building the exact same chalk stack everybody else is building. If I use the popular quarterback, popular receiver and popular runback, then I need to get different somewhere else. Leave some salary on the table. Use a different secondary receiver. Find a lower owned one off. Take a shot on one of the punt plays we talked about. Maybe run two tight ends. Maybe use a naked cheaper quarterback like Malik Willis in some builds so I can jam in Bijan Robinson and some of these expensive studs. I am looking for opportunity with my cheap plays, not simply chasing whatever somebody scored last week. My goal is to narrow the player pool a little bit, especially with my primary stacks, and then create different ways for those same game environments to win.
Week 2 also gives us a chance to have a short memory. The Chargers pissed a lot of people off in Week 1, including anybody dumb enough to use them in a survivor pool like me. NOT FUNNY!!! But that does not mean we automatically run away from them. Quentin Johnston, Omarion Hampton, Oronde Gadsden II and some of those lower owned pieces could easily bounce back if Justin Herbert and this offense get rolling. Sometimes the best tournament opportunity comes from going right back to the team everybody is pissed off at.
We have one week of actual football now. It is not enough data to pretend we suddenly know everything, but it is enough to start identifying usage, opportunity, game environments and places where the field might overreact. Over the next couple of weeks that picture is going to get clearer. For now, I want to trust the environments I believe in, embrace some volatility, get different around the edges and give myself as many paths as possible to the top of a tournament.
It only takes one
Let’s take down a motherfucking GPP, baby.
