It all comes down to this. The FedExCup Playoffs have reached their final stop as the best 30 players remaining head to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the 2026 TOUR Championship. The controversial Starting Strokes format ended after 2024, and for the second straight year every player will begin Thursday at even par. No head starts. No manufactured advantage. Four rounds, 72 holes, and whoever shoots the lowest score walks away as the FedExCup champion. After an entire season of golf, every player who earned his way into Atlanta now has a legitimate chance to finish it on top.
Getting here was a battle of its own. Ryan Fox barely survived the bubble, falling all the way to 30th after a rough showing at the BMW Championship. Kurt Kitayama ended up as the first man out at 31st, while Rickie Fowler suffered another painful ending after entering BMW week right on the number and falling to 33rd. Fowler finished 32nd a year ago, making this the second straight season he has come painfully close to East Lake without getting through. On the other side, Gary Woodland climbed from 31st to 18th, Robert MacIntyre jumped from 36th to 25th, and nobody made a bigger move than Patrick Cantlay, who entered the BMW sitting 43rd in the FedExCup standings, finished runner up, and exploded all the way to 19th to keep his season alive.
Now the attention turns to East Lake, one of the most historic venues on the PGA TOUR. The course was originally designed by Tom Bendelow before Donald Ross completely reworked it in 1913, creating the routing that remains the foundation of East Lake today. It is also forever tied to Bobby Jones, who grew up playing the course before becoming one of the most important figures in the history of golf. The latest major restoration was completed by Andrew Green in 2024, bringing many of the older Ross inspired features back into play while creating a course that can still challenge the modern professional.
East Lake will play as a 7,440 yard par 70, immediately making it a different test than the birdie festivals we see at some TOUR stops. There are only two par 5s on the entire golf course, the 525 yard sixth and the 585 yard 18th, and both represent massive scoring opportunities. Last year they were the two easiest holes on the course. In a 30 man field filled entirely with elite players, giving away strokes on either one can become incredibly costly. The short 390 yard eighth also provides another legitimate birdie opportunity, meaning players will need to take advantage when East Lake gives them a chance because several difficult stretches are waiting.
The trouble starts immediately. The 510 yard par 4 first hole played as the hardest hole at East Lake last season, putting pressure on players before they have even settled into their round. The massive 530 yard par 4 14th ranked second in difficulty and begins a closing stretch where things can turn quickly. The par 3 15th brings water heavily into play around its island style green, followed by the demanding 460 yard par 4 16th. That combination creates exactly what you want from a championship golf course. Players can make a move, but mistakes late in the round can erase several holes of good work in a hurry.
For DraftKings, this is going to be a completely different animal. We have only 30 golfers, every player is guaranteed four rounds, and there are no cheap missed cut landmines to eliminate half the field Friday night. That means simply identifying six good golfers is not going to be enough. Ownership, salary allocation, finishing position, scoring upside, and finding combinations the rest of the field is unwilling to build become even more important. Everybody knows these 30 players are good. Our job is figuring out which six can separate themselves from the other 24 when the entire season comes down to four days at East Lake.
Metrics That Matter
Strokes Gained: Total gives us the best overall snapshot of who is playing the strongest golf coming into East Lake. Every player in this field is elite, so we are looking for separation among the best players in the world rather than simply identifying who is good. Recent Strokes Gained: Total allows us to see who is gaining across the entire bag and arriving in Atlanta with his game in the best overall shape.
Strokes Gained: Approach should be one of the most important statistics on the board this week. East Lake demands quality iron play, particularly when players are forced to hit longer approaches into several demanding par 4s. With only two par 5s available for easier scoring, consistently creating birdie opportunities with the irons becomes even more important.
Good Drives Gained gives us a better picture than simply looking at driving accuracy. East Lake rewards players who can be aggressive off the tee while still putting themselves in position to attack with their next shot. Distance helps, but spraying drives into Bermuda rough can quickly eliminate that advantage. We want players combining length with enough control to consistently give themselves quality second shots.
Clubhead Speed and Ball Speed bring the horsepower element into our model. East Lake stretches to 7,440 yards as a par 70 and features several extremely long par 4s, making raw speed more valuable than it would be on a shorter positional golf course. Players capable of producing elite speed can shorten those holes, hit shorter clubs into greens, and create scoring opportunities where shorter hitters may simply be trying to survive.
Bogey Avoidance will help identify the players most capable of keeping a difficult hole from destroying an otherwise strong round. East Lake provides scoring opportunities, but there are also several holes where poor positioning can quickly lead to dropped shots. In a 30 man field with everyone guaranteed four rounds, avoiding unnecessary mistakes becomes even more important because there are very few weak players around you giving strokes back to the field.
Par 4 Scoring carries additional importance at a par 70 with only two par 5s. Twelve of the 18 holes are par 4s, meaning a massive portion of this tournament will be decided by who consistently handles them best. Players cannot rely on four par 5s every round to pile up DraftKings scoring. If you are going to contend at East Lake, you have to score on the par 4s.
Course History gives us our final metric and a useful tiebreaker when the statistical profiles are close. East Lake has produced several players who repeatedly perform well here, but the old FedExCup Starting Strokes can make traditional finishing position extremely misleading. For our purposes, we are stripping the Starting Strokes completely out of 2021 through 2024 and ranking every golfer solely by the golf he actually played at East Lake. The 2025 results already represent a normal even par start. Below are the raw East Lake finishes for every player in the 2026 field, sorted by their current FedExCup position.
| FedExCup Rank | Golfer | 2025 Raw Finish | 2024 Raw Finish | 2023 Raw Finish | 2022 Raw Finish | 2021 Raw Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | T4 | 3 | T21 | T13 | T17 |
| 2 | Matt Fitzpatrick | — | — | T13 | T16 | — |
| 3 | Wyndham Clark | — | T8 | 3 | — | — |
| 4 | Cameron Young | T4 | — | — | T19 | — |
| 5 | Si Woo Kim | — | — | T17 | — | — |
| 6 | Chris Gotterup | T10 | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | Collin Morikawa | T19 | 1 | T4 | T19 | 28 |
| 8 | Sam Burns | T7 | T13 | T4 | T25 | T17 |
| 9 | Tommy Fleetwood | 1 | T16 | T9 | — | — |
| 10 | Ludvig Åberg | T21 | T19 | — | — | — |
| 11 | Rory McIlroy | T23 | 12 | T11 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | Xander Schauffele | — | T13 | T1 | T6 | 3 |
| 13 | Jacob Bridgeman | T27 | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | Russell Henley | T2 | 4 | T13 | — | — |
| 15 | Akshay Bhatia | T13 | T24 | — | — | — |
| 16 | Hideki Matsuyama | 29 | T16 | — | T9 | T26 |
| 17 | Ryan Gerard | — | — | — | — | — |
| 18 | Gary Woodland | — | — | — | — | — |
| 19 | Patrick Cantlay | T2 | T19 | T6 | T16 | T4 |
| 20 | Kristoffer Reitan | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21 | Min Woo Lee | — | — | — | — | — |
| 22 | J.J. Spaun | T25 | — | — | — | — |
| 23 | Alex Smalley | — | — | — | — | — |
| 24 | Alex Fitzpatrick | — | — | — | — | — |
| 25 | Robert MacIntyre | T17 | T16 | — | — | — |
| 26 | Viktor Hovland | 12 | T8 | T1 | 15 | T4 |
| 27 | Justin Rose | T21 | — | — | — | — |
| 28 | Adam Scott | — | 5 | — | 24 | — |
| 29 | Tom Kim | — | — | T17 | — | — |
| 30 | Ryan Fox | — | — | — | — | — |
Data Interpretation
There is useful information in the East Lake history, but there are also plenty of reasons not to lean on it too heavily. Seven golfers in this 30 man field have never played a TOUR Championship at East Lake, while several others have only one appearance. These are also 30 man fields, so a T10 or T15 does not carry the same weight it would in a normal PGA TOUR event. More importantly, nobody has been completely dominant here year after year. Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark and Scottie Scheffler have produced some of the strongest raw results, but even within that group there has been plenty of variance.
That makes course history valuable as context rather than something that should control our model. Cantlay is especially interesting after finishing runner up at the BMW and coming off a T2 raw finish at East Lake last season, while Henley, Xander, Morikawa, Wyndham, Hovland and Scottie have all shown legitimate upside on this course. Still, the lack of one truly dominant East Lake player pushes us toward putting more weight on current statistical form. Our primary data model will rank the field using Strokes Gained: Total, Strokes Gained: Approach, Good Drives Gained, Clubhead Speed, Ball Speed, Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Scoring, with course history serving more as a final piece of context when the numbers are close.
2026 TOUR Championship Metric Rankings
The table below ranks all 30 players in the TOUR Championship field against one another across our seven primary statistical categories. A ranking of 1 represents the best player in the field in that metric, while 30 represents the lowest. These are field rankings, not overall PGA TOUR rankings.
| Golfer | DK Salary | SG: Total | SG: Approach | Good Drives | Clubhead Speed | Ball Speed | Bogey Avoidance | Par 4 Scoring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $14,000 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,000 | 4 | 18 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 13 |
| Xander Schauffele | $10,000 | 10 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 14 |
| Ludvig Åberg | $9,700 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 12 |
| Wyndham Clark | $9,400 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 17 |
| Sam Burns | $9,200 | 11 | 19 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 3 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,000 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 18 | 19 | 3 | 26 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,900 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 9 |
| Cameron Young | $8,500 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Collin Morikawa | $8,100 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 28 | 8 | 23 |
| Chris Gotterup | $7,900 | 8 | 16 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 25 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $7,800 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 5 | 5 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,700 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 27 | 9 | 2 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $7,600 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 15 |
| Russell Henley | $7,500 | 17 | 24 | 5 | 30 | 30 | 6 | 11 |
| Ryan Gerard | $7,400 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 24 | 20 |
| Viktor Hovland | $7,300 | 21 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 26 | 22 | 16 |
| J.J. Spaun | $7,200 | 22 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 22 | 27 | 27 |
| Robert MacIntyre | $7,100 | 23 | 26 | 22 | 16 | 16 | 25 | 22 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $7,000 | 14 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 19 |
| Justin Rose | $6,900 | 27 | 11 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 24 |
| Tom Kim | $6,800 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 29 | 2 | 4 |
| Min Woo Lee | $6,700 | 20 | 27 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 21 |
| Gary Woodland | $6,600 | 26 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 7 |
| Adam Scott | $6,500 | 28 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 28 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $6,400 | 30 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 30 |
| Alex Smalley | $6,300 | 25 | 20 | 13 | 24 | 25 | 13 | 8 |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | $6,200 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 29 |
| Akshay Bhatia | $6,100 | 24 | 23 | 26 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 10 |
| Ryan Fox | $6,000 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 30 | 18 |
2026 TOUR Championship Metric Scorecard
This table converts our seven statistical rankings into points and combines them into one overall score. The purpose is not to create a definitive player ranking, but to give us a clean statistical starting point for evaluating salary, ownership, course fit, and lineup construction.
| Rank | Golfer | DK Salary | SG Total | SG Approach | Good Drives | Clubhead Speed | Ball Speed | Bogey Avoidance | Par 4 Scoring | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | $14,000 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 32 |
| 2 | Matt Fitzpatrick | $7,800 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 29 |
| T3 | Patrick Cantlay | $8,900 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 27 |
| T3 | Cameron Young | $8,500 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| T5 | Rory McIlroy | $11,000 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 26 |
| T5 | Xander Schauffele | $10,000 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 26 |
| T5 | Alex Fitzpatrick | $6,200 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| T8 | Ludvig Åberg | $9,700 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 25 |
| T8 | Si Woo Kim | $7,700 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| T8 | Tom Kim | $6,800 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 11 | Sam Burns | $9,200 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
| T12 | Collin Morikawa | $8,100 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| T12 | Chris Gotterup | $7,900 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| T14 | Wyndham Clark | $9,400 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 21 |
| T14 | Tommy Fleetwood | $9,000 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| T14 | Russell Henley | $7,500 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 21 |
| 17 | Adam Scott | $6,500 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 18 | Ryan Gerard | $7,400 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| T19 | Hideki Matsuyama | $7,600 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| T19 | Jacob Bridgeman | $7,000 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| T19 | Min Woo Lee | $6,700 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| T19 | Gary Woodland | $6,600 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| 23 | J.J. Spaun | $7,200 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| T24 | Viktor Hovland | $7,300 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| T24 | Alex Smalley | $6,300 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| T26 | Justin Rose | $6,900 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| T26 | Kristoffer Reitan | $6,400 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| T28 | Robert MacIntyre | $7,100 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| T28 | Akshay Bhatia | $6,100 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 30 | Ryan Fox | $6,000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
Now we have a much clearer picture of which players check the most statistical boxes for East Lake, but this should not be viewed as a strict ranking of who we have to play. Scottie Scheffler finishing at the top is no surprise. He is the best player in the world, and the numbers reinforce just how complete his game is. From there, however, current form and course history have to be layered into the evaluation. Wyndham Clark may only show up around the middle of this model, but he is playing lights out right now and has strong raw results at East Lake. Russell Henley is another example of a player who lands more toward the middle statistically but has shown an obvious comfort level on this course. Golf always brings variance, and in a 30 man no cut field full of elite players, no single model is going to tell the entire story. What this gives us is a strong starting point to combine the numbers with recent form, course history, salary, ownership and leverage as we start identifying our favorite DraftKings targets.
Scottie Scheffler Conundrum
DraftKings has once again forced us into the Scottie Scheffler conversation by pricing him all the way up at $14,000. We talked about the math last week, and in a limited 30 man field, that salary creates an even bigger lineup construction problem. He is simply priced too high, as always. There are still ways to pair Scottie with another strong golfer, but doing so immediately forces sacrifices throughout the rest of the lineup. If he can avoid the first round struggles that have periodically shown up this season and post a strong number Thursday, he has every chance to win this tournament. If he plays anything close to the level we saw at the St. Jude, this field could be in serious trouble.
The difficult part is determining whether even a Scottie win is enough to justify the $14,000 salary and land him in the optimal lineup. If he does make the optimal, the salary restrictions could greatly increase the likelihood of duplicated lineups because there are only so many realistic combinations available around him in a 30 man field. This may simply be one of those weeks where you accept that possibility and take what the slate gives you. There are plenty of elite golfers with legitimate win equity at East Lake, so I do not feel the need to go completely overboard. My current expectation is to land somewhere around 28 to 30 percent Scottie, with him included among a group of six to primary golfers that I expect to target somewhere in the 25 to 37 percent range.
Elite Tier
Rory McIlroy – $11,000 – With the Field
Rory is an interesting decision this week. The upside is obvious because he remains an absolute monster off the tee, and when the entire game clicks, he has legitimate win equity in any field. He is also coming off a strong third place showing at the BMW where he gained more than eight strokes to the field and looked good with the putter. When Rory is slightly off, the overall talent still gives him plenty of top 10 upside. When everything works, he can simply run away from people. I plan to use plenty of Rory and may actually end up with a few more lineups than Scottie simply because the lineup construction is considerably easier at $11,000.
Xander Schauffele – $10,000 – Overweight
The 2026 season has not been the dominant Xander year we have seen in the past, but the game appears to be trending back in the right direction. He has a runner up and a third this season, finished second at the Rocket and seventh at the St. Jude, and his raw East Lake history remains one of the strongest in this field. He has not won since late last season, and at some point it feels like another victory is coming. At $10,000, the combination of talent, course history and improving form makes him a golfer I expect to be slightly overweight on.
Ludvig Åberg – $9,700 – Underweight
Ludvig is obviously capable of putting together a strong week, and a respectable finish would not surprise me at all. The problem is simply the neighborhood. There are other golfers around this price range who I believe offer more upside, better recent form or a stronger overall case for East Lake. At $9,700, I expect to be underweight. Plus let’s be honest with ourselves here…. Ludvig hasn’t shown me any closing ability at all. The guy needs to wear a red shirt on Sunday or something…
Wyndham Clark – $9,400 – Overweight
Wyndham is absolutely rolling right now. He comes into East Lake off a BMW Championship victory, has shown that he can play this course well, and carries the type of distance that should be an advantage on several of these long par 4s. Could he win back to back playoff events? Absolutely. At $9,400, I want exposure to a golfer arriving at the TOUR Championship playing some of his best golf of the season.
Sam Burns – $9,200 – Overweight
Burns is another player where last week’s performance could actually work in our favor. A disappointing BMW may knock some people off him and suppress the ownership compared with where it otherwise might have landed. I am willing to take advantage of that. The talent and upside remain, and at $9,200 I expect to be overweight rather than reacting too heavily to one poor week.
Tommy Fleetwood – $9,000 – With the Field
Fleetwood is coming off a terrible showing at the BMW, and I think that could help offset some of the ownership that normally comes with being the defending champion at East Lake. We already know he can win on this golf course, and one bad tournament does not erase that. I do not feel the need to make him a massive stand, but I also do not want to abandon him because of one ugly week. I expect to stay relatively close to the field.
Middle Tier
Patrick Cantlay – $8,900 – Overweight
Cantlay is becoming one of the centerpiece plays of this slate. He was outstanding at the BMW when he desperately needed a huge week just to reach East Lake, and he delivered under pressure. Now he comes to a course where his raw history includes multiple strong performances, including a T2 last season. The combination of elite iron play, current form, confidence, course history and a very reasonable $8,900 salary makes him one of my favorite overweight targets.
Chris Gotterup – $7,900 – Overweight
Gotterup looks extremely interesting at this price. He finished T10 in raw scoring here last season and arrives at East Lake coming off another strong showing at the BMW. We know the type of power and upside he brings when everything is clicking, and $7,900 gives us plenty of lineup flexibility compared with the golfers at the top of the board. This guy might be a little volatile. but that is just the way an outsider likes it. Confidence should be high, the game fits what we are looking for, and I expect to be overweight.
Matt Fitzpatrick – $7,800 – Overweight
Fitzpatrick is simply too cheap. Our statistical model loved him, and $7,800 is an extremely reasonable price for a golfer with legitimate top 10, top five and even top three upside when the ball striking cooperates. The approach game and driver took a step backward at the BMW, but that looks more like a blip than something I am ready to treat as a major concern. When Fitzpatrick has produced poor off the tee or approach weeks this season, he has generally been capable of bouncing back quickly. The putter remains in good shape. If the ball striking returns to the green numbers we saw at the St. Jude, this price could look ridiculous.
Hideki Matsuyama – $7,600 – Underweight
Hideki finally appears to have cooled off after an extended stretch of very good golf. He has played a lot, his recent trajectory is pointing in the wrong direction, and East Lake has not consistently brought out his best. At $7,600, the price is cheap enough that I will still have exposure because a strong finish could absolutely put him into the optimal lineup. I just do not see the same win equity that I see with several other golfers around him. I expect to be slightly underweight.
Russell Henley – $7,500 – Overweight
Henley continues to check boxes at East Lake. He played well again at the BMW, owns excellent recent raw course history here, and $7,500 feels too cheap for the upside. He is not going to overpower East Lake with distance, but his accuracy and long iron ability give him another path to success. A top 10 is firmly in play, and based on what he has shown on this course, I would not completely eliminate winning upside either. Everything appears to be trending in the right direction.
Viktor Hovland – $7,300 – Overweight
Hovland has not been particularly impressive over the last few weeks, but we are now getting him at only $7,300 at a golf course where he has repeatedly shown upside. He has already won at East Lake in the past and owns several strong raw finishes here. He also showed earlier this summer that the ceiling remains very real. At this salary, I am willing to overlook some recent inconsistency and take another shot on the upside.
Value Tier
Justin Rose – $6,900 – Overweight
Rose is simply too cheap for the type of upside he still brings to a major event. We have seen him show up repeatedly when the stage gets bigger, and while the recent form has not been spectacular, there were encouraging signs at the BMW. The driver and iron play both improved, while most of the damage came around the greens and with the putter. I am willing to bet on the ball striking continuing in the right direction and Rose finding something with the putter. He is long enough off the tee, we know what he can do with his irons, and he has a history of dialing things in when it matters. At $6,900, I want a healthy dose.
Tom Kim – $6,800 – Overweight
Tom Kim is having an amazing year and remains one of my favorite values on the slate. We have already seen a win and multiple high end finishes this summer, and he played well enough at the St. Jude to reinforce the upside. Last week was a step backward, but there were still encouraging signs with the driver. If the approach game gets back to where it has been for much of the season and the putter stays hot, $6,800 is simply too cheap. There is legitimate top 10 upside here, and I want to be overweight.
Gary Woodland – $6,600 – Overweight
Woodland comes into East Lake off a T4 at the BMW and is another golfer whose game makes sense for this course. We already know he can hammer the golf ball off the tee, but the bigger development last week was how well he hit his irons. If that approach game carries over to Atlanta, there is no reason he cannot find himself somewhere high on the leaderboard again. At only $6,600, the combination of power, current form and improving iron play makes him an obvious target.
Adam Scott – $6,500 – Overweight
Scott is still the type of veteran golfer who can show up when the tournament gets big. I am not convinced he has the same win equity as some of the players above him, but a top 10 is absolutely within the range of outcomes. At $6,500, that may be all we need. He gives us a proven golfer at the bottom of the salary board who can become the final piece that allows us to build around multiple higher priced targets.
Kristoffer Reitan – $6,400 – Overweight
Reitan is my DFS Outsider Dart Play this week. There are going to be plenty of clicks going toward Woodland, Alex Fitzpatrick and Alex Smalley in this range, which makes Reitan an interesting contrarian stab. He is excellent off the tee, and while the irons were not there last week, he does not need to suddenly become the best approach player in the field. If the iron play improves enough to give him opportunities, we already know he is confident with the putter. I think a top 10 is within his range, and if he gets there at low ownership, Reitan could become one of those bottom of the lineup pieces that helps win a GPP.
Alex Smalley – $6,300 – With the Field
Smalley is going to be considerably more popular, but sometimes the obvious value is obvious for a reason. He is playing extremely well right now, the statistical profile fits what we are looking for at East Lake, and $6,300 gives us enormous flexibility throughout the rest of the lineup. I do not necessarily need to take some massive stand on him if the ownership gets out of control, but I am also not interested in fading a golfer who is playing this well simply because other people see it too.
Final Thoughts
The TOUR Championship gives us one of the strangest DraftKings slates of the season. There are only 30 golfers, nobody is going home early, and virtually everyone in the field has enough talent to finish near the top if he catches the right four day stretch. That makes ownership, salary allocation and lineup construction every bit as important as identifying good golfers. Scottie Scheffler remains the ultimate decision at $14,000, but there are enough legitimate alternatives and enough value throughout the $7,000 and $6,000 ranges that we do not have to build the entire week around him.
My goal is to concentrate exposure around a core group while still embracing the variance that comes with a tournament like this. Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Tom Kim and several of the cheaper options all give us different paths to constructing lineups capable of separating from the field. Use the statistical model as the starting point, layer in current form and raw East Lake history, and let ownership and lineup construction finish the job. DO NOT FORGET THAT IF YOU WANNA WIN SOLO THIS WEEK YOU NEED TO LEAVE CASH ON THE TABLE!!! I can’t stress this as the key way to be different this week.Thirty golfers enter East Lake with a chance to end the season on top. We only need the right six. Let’s end this season with a GPP win!!!
It only takes one
