The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Loudon for 301 laps around New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and this is exactly the type of race that should have DFS players paying attention. The Magic Mile has never been about simply showing up with horsepower and driving away from the field. Track position matters. Restarts matter. Tire management matters. History tells us that when somebody hits the setup here, they can control a massive portion of the race. We saw exactly that last year. Ryan Blaney won after leading 116 laps, while teammate Joey Logano led a race high 147 laps and finished fourth. Josh Berry finished second, and suddenly Team Penske and the Penske affiliated cars looked like they owned New England. Now we come back one year later with Penske heating up at exactly the right time.
New Hampshire is a 1.058 mile asphalt oval that drives much more like a short track than the traditional intermediate tracks we see throughout the season. The corners feature variable banking from just two to seven degrees, while the straightaways sit at only one degree. There is nowhere to hide here. Drivers have to get the car slowed down, rotate through the center and get back to the throttle without abusing the rear tires. Passing can become difficult when the field gets stretched out, making clean air and track position extremely valuable. That is important for DraftKings because a driver starting near the front who can control the race may have access to a pile of dominator points that simply does not exist for somebody buried in traffic.
The tire package makes this race even more interesting. Goodyear is bringing the exact same left and right side compounds the Cup Series used last weekend at Richmond, with that combination also having been used earlier this season at Martinsville and North Wilkesboro. The tire was specifically designed to provide more initial grip while producing more lap time falloff throughout a green flag run. That gives us recent data we can actually use. Richmond should be our strongest comparison, but Martinsville and North Wilkesboro deserve attention as well. This is not about blindly looking at finishing position. We want to know who had speed, who maintained that speed over longer runs, who could pass cars and who was only good because they had track position.
There are also some drivers walking into Loudon absolutely cooking. Joey Logano has won two of the last four races and has climbed from 20th to ninth in points over a six race stretch. Chase Briscoe just led 171 laps at Richmond and now has six top six finishes in his last seven races. Denny Hamlin continues to be ridiculously consistent on non drafting ovals and owns three Cup victories at New Hampshire. Then there is Christopher Bell, who has turned Loudon into one of his personal playgrounds with two Cup victories in his last four starts here. On the other side, guys like Carson Hocevar and Tyler Reddick have had enough recent volatility that we need to separate what the season long numbers say from what the cars are actually doing right now. This is where current form and track specific history have to meet instead of one automatically outweighing the other.
Then we have The Chase, and the pressure is getting very real. Only two regular season races remain, New Hampshire and Daytona, and the top 16 drivers in points advance. There is no win and you are automatically in anymore. Austin Cindric currently sits 15th at 57 points above the cut, while Shane van Gisbergen owns the final Chase position with a 50 point advantage over Ryan Preece. Behind Preece sit Ross Chastain at 63 points out, Brad Keselowski at 78 out and Erik Jones at 81 out. That makes Loudon enormous because nobody wants to arrive at Daytona needing a miracle. Preece especially gets his home region and one of the best short track opportunities he is going to see. Meanwhile, there is another battle near the top, where Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell are tied in points for sixth, an important position when Chase seeding begins.
That is what makes this slate so damn interesting. We have proven Loudon dominators. We have Penske coming off another statement at Richmond. We have Joe Gibbs Racing cars carrying legitimate race winning speed. We have drivers fighting for their championship lives. And we have a tire package that gives us recent races to study instead of guessing. The first thing we are going to do is forget DraftKings salary even exists. We are going to evaluate these cars based on speed, track history, current form, tire performance, starting position and their realistic ability to control this race. Once we know who we actually want, then we let DraftKings tell us how difficult it is to build around them.
How the Master Data Chart Works
The Master Data Chart takes several important pieces of information and puts them into one overall scoring system. Instead of relying on one statistic, we are combining New Hampshire history, front running ability, practice speed, and DraftKings place differential potential to get a broader view of the field.
| Metric | What It Tells Us |
|---|---|
| Average Finish | How consistently the driver has finished well at New Hampshire |
| Laps Led | Who has shown the ability to control races and score dominator points |
| Stage Points | Who consistently runs near the front throughout the race |
| Driver Rating | Overall historical performance, combining speed, running position, laps led, and results |
| Fastest Practice Lap | Immediate raw speed in Saturday practice |
| 10 Lap Average | Sustained race speed and long run performance |
| Starting Position | DraftKings place differential opportunity |
Scoring System
| Ranking | Points |
|---|---|
| 1st through 10th | 4 Points |
| 11th through 19th | 3 Points |
| 20th through 29th | 2 Points |
| 30th through 36th | 1 Point |
Starting Position Scoring
Starting position works in reverse because drivers starting deeper in the field have more potential to score DraftKings place differential points.
| Starting Position | Points |
|---|---|
| 30th through 36th | 4 Points |
| 20th through 29th | 3 Points |
| 11th through 19th | 2 Points |
| 1st through 10th | 1 Point |
Important Disclaimer
This is not a ranking system and the highest score does not automatically mean that driver is the best DraftKings play. The purpose of the chart is to give us an overall view of the field and a clean starting point for our research. It helps us quickly identify drivers who are checking several boxes, spot potential targets, and find situations that deserve a deeper look. From there, we still have to apply salary, ownership, leverage, race context, and lineup construction before making any final decisions.
2026 New Hampshire Master Data Chart
| Driver | DK Salary | Start | Avg. Finish | Laps Led | Stage Points | Driver Rating | Fast Lap Rank (MPH) | 10 Lap Rank (MPH) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | $11,200 | 8 | 16.0 | 116 | 43 | 111.7 | 16 (129.437) | 3 (128.767) |
| Denny Hamlin | $11,000 | 4 | 14.3 | 43 | 27 | 95.3 | 18 (129.274) | 12 (128.265) |
| Christopher Bell | $10,700 | 6 | 12.0 | 150 | 28 | 108.1 | 10 (129.626) | 1 (128.887) |
| Joey Logano | $10,500 | 21 | 12.7 | 149 | 46 | 113.1 | 4 (130.055) | 10 (128.325) |
| Chase Briscoe | $10,000 | 17 | 7.3 | 19 | 2 | 75.3 | 23 (128.950) | 11 (128.291) |
| Kyle Larson | $9,500 | 9 | 4.7 | 10 | 27 | 101.8 | 13 (129.525) | 4 (128.508) |
| Ty Gibbs | $9,200 | 7 | 26.0 | 0 | 0 | 65.2 | 2 (130.158) | 15 (128.116) |
| William Byron | $9,000 | 3 | 17.7 | 9 | 25 | 86.0 | 6 (129.975) | 2 (128.788) |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,700 | 1 | 11.0 | 53 | 14 | 84.7 | 31 (128.689) | 26 (127.698) |
| Chase Elliott | $8,500 | 29 | 11.7 | 44 | 14 | 88.4 | 8 (129.683) | 27 (127.611) |
| Josh Berry | $8,200 | 2 | 2.5 | 10 | 17 | 111.8 | 9 (129.635) | 7 (128.418) |
| Bubba Wallace | $8,000 | 23 | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | 69.2 | 3 (130.095) | 14 (128.176) |
| Austin Cindric | $7,900 | 26 | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 52.8 | 5 (130.006) | 22 (127.927) |
| Ross Chastain | $7,700 | 12 | 14.0 | 0 | 4 | 76.1 | 14 (129.516) | 5 (128.486) |
| Chris Buescher | $7,600 | 16 | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 74.6 | 11 (129.577) | 6 (128.461) |
| Brad Keselowski | $7,500 | 25 | 18.7 | 0 | 3 | 70.5 | 25 (128.885) | 13 (128.260) |
| Ryan Preece | $7,300 | 18 | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 60.3 | 28 (128.763) | 18 (128.034) |
| Carson Hocevar | $7,200 | 22 | 14.0 | 0 | 12 | 83.1 | 27 (128.845) | 17 (128.099) |
| Alex Bowman | $7,000 | 10 | 21.7 | 0 | 8 | 71.4 | 19 (129.213) | 20 (127.962) |
| Shane van Gisbergen | $6,900 | 5 | 32.0 | 0 | 4 | 79.2 | 17 (129.327) | 21 (127.932) |
| Austin Dillon | $6,800 | 34 | 18.3 | 12 | 0 | 56.6 | 33 (128.667) | 29 (127.451) |
| Daniel Suárez | $6,600 | 35 | 24.3 | 0 | 3 | 48.3 | 32 (128.689) | 24 (127.794) |
| Connor Zilisch | $6,400 | 20 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 20 (129.055) | 23 (127.838) |
| Erik Jones | $6,300 | 11 | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 51.0 | 1 (130.251) | 8 (128.408) |
| Michael McDowell | $6,100 | 15 | 12.0 | 0 | 2 | 79.3 | 12 (129.529) | 9 (128.406) |
| Riley Herbst | $6,000 | 27 | 22.0 | 0 | 0 | 50.6 | 26 (128.880) | 25 (127.774) |
| Zane Smith | $5,900 | 14 | 28.5 | 0 | 0 | 42.5 | 22 (128.976) | 28 (127.470) |
| AJ Allmendinger | $5,800 | 24 | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 64.3 | 15 (129.507) | 34 (127.119) |
| John Hunter Nemechek | $5,700 | 31 | 21.0 | 0 | 0 | 40.5 | 7 (129.683) | 19 (127.995) |
| Todd Gilliland | $5,600 | 13 | 17.3 | 19 | 5 | 62.2 | 29 (128.754) | 30 (127.451) |
| Austin Hill | $5,500 | 28 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 35 (128.329) | 32 (127.167) |
| Noah Gragson | $5,400 | 19 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | 49.9 | 21 (129.011) | 16 (128.105) |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,300 | 30 | 16.7 | 3 | 0 | 52.6 | 34 (128.394) | 31 (127.402) |
| Cole Custer | $5,100 | 32 | 29.5 | 0 | 0 | 38.8 | 30 (128.706) | 35 (127.080) |
| Ty Dillon | $5,000 | 33 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | 35.6 | 36 (127.980) | 33 (127.158) |
| Cody Ware | $4,800 | 36 | 31.0 | 2 | 0 | 29.1 | 24 (128.941) | 36 (125.828) |
2026 New Hampshire Data Ranking Chart
| Driver | DK Salary | Start | Avg. Finish | Laps Led | Stage Points | Driver Rating | Fast Lap | 10 Lap | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | $10,500 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| Christopher Bell | $10,700 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 25 |
| Chase Elliott | $8,500 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| Josh Berry | $8,200 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| Ryan Blaney | $11,200 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,500 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| William Byron | $9,000 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| Denny Hamlin | $11,000 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 |
| Chase Briscoe | $10,000 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 21 |
| Carson Hocevar | $7,200 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 21 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,100 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,700 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| Ross Chastain | $7,700 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| Chris Buescher | $7,600 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| Bubba Wallace | $8,000 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| Erik Jones | $6,300 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| Brad Keselowski | $7,500 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18 |
| Austin Dillon | $6,800 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | $5,700 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,900 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5,600 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| Ty Gibbs | $9,200 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| Ryan Preece | $7,300 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,000 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| Daniel Suárez | $6,600 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,300 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| Shane van Gisbergen | $6,900 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| Riley Herbst | $6,000 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $5,800 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| Noah Gragson | $5,400 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| Cody Ware | $4,800 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,000 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Zane Smith | $5,900 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| Cole Custer | $5,100 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| Connor Zilisch | $6,400 | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 | 2 | 7* |
| Austin Hill | $5,500 | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | 1 | 5* |
Connor Zilisch and Austin Hill do not have historical New Hampshire data for the four track history categories, so their totals only include starting position and practice.
Elite Tier Targets
Denny Hamlin – $11,000 – Slightly Underweight
There is absolutely nothing wrong with Denny Hamlin this week. He has won at New Hampshire three times, owns a 95.3 driver rating over our track sample, and has led 43 laps with 27 stage points. The 12th ranked 10 lap average was solid enough, but starting fourth removes most of his place differential cushion and puts more pressure on him to get to the front and dominate. Hamlin can absolutely win this race, and I will have exposure, but I simply like a few other options in this range more. Slightly underweight for me.
Christopher Bell – $10,700 – Overweight
This is one of those tracks where Christopher Bell deserves our attention every single time NASCAR shows up. Bell has already won twice at New Hampshire, has led 150 laps in our track sample, and carries an excellent 108.1 driver rating. Then he went out Saturday and posted the best 10 lap average in the entire field. Starting sixth gives him enough room to score a few place differential points while still putting him close enough to the front to become a major dominator. Bell is an elite short track racer, and everything about this setup fits what he does well. I expect him to contend for the win. Overweight.
Joey Logano – $10,500 – I’m Gonna Have a Shit Ton 🙂
There is no reason to get fucking cute here. Joey Logano starts 21st, owns the best driver rating in our New Hampshire data at 113.1, has led 149 laps, and leads the entire field with 46 stage points. He was fourth fastest on the single lap practice chart and still ranked 10th over the longer run. More importantly, Logano is racing extremely well right now and has already shown what this Penske team can do with this tire package. Normally, when a play like this projects to become massive chalk, we start looking for reasons to get underneath the field. I am not interested in doing that here. My entire slate may basically come down to whether Joey Logano delivers. If he works his way into the top five, I think there is an extremely strong chance he lands in the optimal lineup. Ownership could easily climb over 50 percent, and I still want a shit ton. Maybe almost everything. Maybe everything. We can find our leverage somewhere else. All systems go.
Chase Briscoe – $10,000 – Overweight
The qualifying result actually makes Chase Briscoe more interesting to me. Starting 17th gives him legitimate room to move forward, and he still showed respectable long run speed with the 11th ranked 10 lap average. Briscoe also owns a 7.3 average finish in our New Hampshire data and has been one of the hottest drivers in the garage recently. This is a driver who has proven he can run up front on this tire package, and now DraftKings gives us place differential potential on top of it. I like the combination of current form, starting position, and upside. Overweight.
Kyle Larson – $9,500 – Overweight
I really like what Kyle Larson showed in practice. He ranked fourth in 10 lap average, owns a ridiculous 4.7 average finish in our New Hampshire sample, and has accumulated 27 stage points. This is also a driver who can turn a strong long run car into a dominant afternoon very quickly. Starting ninth is fine. He can move forward, score some differential, and still get to the front early enough to capture dominator points. Larson has not always looked completely himself recently, and with the Chase getting closer, this feels like a good opportunity for the 5 team to build some momentum. Give me some Larson. Overweight.
Tyler Reddick – $8,700 – Underweight
This is where qualifying and practice tell two completely different stories. Tyler Reddick starts on the pole, but he ranked just 31st on the fastest practice lap chart and 26th in 10 lap average. Historically, he has been respectable here with an 11.0 average finish, 53 laps led, and an 84.7 driver rating, so I am not pretending he cannot race at Loudon. The problem is DraftKings scoring. Starting first means Reddick basically needs to lead a significant chunk of this race or win it to justify the opportunity cost. He can absolutely do that, and I will have some exposure, but the practice data gives me enough concern that I am willing to come in under the field.
Chase Elliott – $8,500 – Overweight
The 10 lap number is ugly. Chase Elliott ranked 27th in long run speed, but he also flashed legitimate raw speed with the eighth fastest individual practice lap. Now we get him starting 29th at only $8,500. That changes everything. Elliott owns an 11.7 average finish here, has led 44 laps, and has produced an 88.4 driver rating. He does not need to dominate this race to crush this salary. If that Hendrick team can clean up the longer run balance and Elliott simply works his way toward the top 10, the place differential alone can make him extremely difficult to keep out of the optimal lineup. At this price and starting position, I am willing to bet on the talent. Overweight.
Middle Tier Targets
Ross Chastain – $7,700 – Overweight
There is a lot to like about Ross Chastain at this price. He starts 12th, but more importantly, he posted the fifth best 10 lap average in practice. The historical New Hampshire numbers are not spectacular, but Chastain is a very capable short track racer and the car clearly showed sustained speed Saturday. At only $7,700, I think DraftKings may have priced him a little too conservatively. A top 10 finish with some time spent running near the front gives him plenty of upside. I have interest.
Carson Hocevar – $7,200 – Overweight
Starting 22nd immediately puts Carson Hocevar on the radar. His 17th ranked 10 lap average was better than where he qualified, and he has a respectable 14.0 average finish with an 83.1 driver rating in our data. Hocevar continues to develop into one of the smarter young racers in the field, particularly when track position, tire management, and patience matter. He does not need to contend for the win at $7,200. If he can move from 22nd into the low teens, he has a legitimate path into winning lineups.
Shane van Gisbergen – $6,900 – Underweight
I am going underweight on Shane van Gisbergen this week. Starting fifth immediately puts pressure on him to maintain that track position, and I did not see enough in practice to convince me that he will. SVG ranked only 21st in 10 lap average, and his New Hampshire history has been ugly, including a 32.0 average finish in our data. Yes, he is having a much better season, but the Chase situation matters here too. He currently holds the final Chase position with several hungry drivers trying to run him down. I could see SVG taking a more conservative approach, protecting the car and trying to bank a respectable points day instead of forcing the issue. My expectation is somewhere around the mid to upper teens. From a fifth place starting position, that means significant negative place differential and probably nowhere near enough DraftKings production to reach the optimal lineup.
DFS Outsider Dart Plays
Erik Jones – $6,300 – Overweight
This one is all about speed. Erik Jones posted the fastest individual lap in practice and ranked eighth over 10 laps. The historical New Hampshire results are nothing special, but Saturday’s car looks dramatically better than those numbers. He qualified 11th, which eliminates most of our place differential upside, but at only $6,300 a top 10 finish could still provide tremendous value. The speed is too obvious to completely ignore.
Michael McDowell – $6,100 – Overweight
Michael McDowell checks a surprising number of boxes for somebody sitting at $6,100. He has a 12.0 average finish in our New Hampshire data, finished eighth here last season, and posted the ninth best 10 lap average in practice. Starting 15th is not perfect, but this is a driver who has shown both track competency and legitimate race speed entering Sunday. Another top 10 is absolutely within his range, and at this salary that could be enough to land him in the optimal.
John Hunter Nemechek – $5,700 – Overweight
The historical numbers are ugly, but the starting position changes the equation. John Hunter Nemechek starts 31st after showing significantly better speed in practice, including the seventh fastest individual lap and 19th best 10 lap average. He does not need a miracle. If Nemechek simply runs the race his practice speed suggests he can run and moves into the low 20s or high teens, the place differential becomes valuable very quickly at $5,700. This is exactly the type of cheap play that can unlock the rest of a tournament lineup.
Noah Gragson – $5,400 – Overweight
I have interest in Noah Gragson strictly because the price does not match what we saw over the longer run. Gragson ranked 16th in 10 lap average and starts 19th, yet DraftKings has him sitting at only $5,400. His historical New Hampshire numbers are weak, so there is absolutely risk here, but we are not paying for perfection. We are paying almost the minimum for a car that showed midpack or better race pace. If he can hang around 15th, that is enough to matter.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $5,300 – Overweight
There was nothing sexy about Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in practice. He ranked 31st over 10 laps and starts all the way back in 30th. But this is where salary and starting position can outweigh raw speed. Stenhouse owns a 16.7 average finish in our New Hampshire data, meaning we have evidence that he can get around this place considerably better than where he will start. At $5,300, even a move into the high teens could produce exactly what we need. He is volatile, he is ugly, and that is why he belongs exactly where he is.
Final Thoughts
Two races remain before the Chase field is locked in, and that gives New Hampshire another layer that should make this one a hell of a lot of fun to watch. I am especially interested in Shane van Gisbergen sitting on that final Chase spot with several drivers behind him needing to make something happen. If those bubble guys get aggressive and SVG goes into points protection mode, that could create some very interesting race dynamics throughout the afternoon.
From a DFS standpoint, I am fired up for this slate. Joey Logano is the guy I want to build around. Starting 21st with his New Hampshire history, current form, practice speed, and success on this tire package gives him one of the strongest overall profiles on the board. From there, we can pair him with a couple of our higher end targets, rotate through the middle tier, and mix and match the dart plays until we find the combination that separates us from the field.
This also feels like a slate where we do not need to force every dollar of the salary cap. Leave a little money on the table. Build around the drivers and race scenarios you actually believe in. Let the field worry about making everything look perfect while we worry about building lineups that can finish first.
Let’s take down a fucking GPP.
It only takes one
