The FedEx Cup Playoffs roll into St. Louis this week for the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club, and this is one of those weeks where anybody pretending to have a gigantic pile of relevant course history is probably full of shit. Bellerive has not hosted a PGA Tour event since the 2018 PGA Championship, and before that you have to go all the way back to the 2008 BMW Championship. That means we are working with some history, some course characteristics, current form, and a whole lot of common sense. Honestly, I kind of like it that way. When everybody has the same giant database telling them exactly what happened here three years ago, finding an actual edge gets a hell of a lot harder.
Bellerive is a par 70 measuring 7,448 yards, originally designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr., with significant renovation work later completed by his son Rees Jones. This place has some teeth. It is long, the rough can absolutely punish bad drives, the bunkering is legitimate, and water is technically in play on eight holes. More importantly for me, several of those hazards can become a real problem on approach shots. The two par fives are long, several of these par fours are going to demand real golf shots, and I do not think we are getting some bullshit putting contest where everybody fires at flags for four straight days.
The greens also deserve some attention. They have been rebuilt since we last saw championship golf here and now feature T1 bentgrass, which absolutely gets my attention when we start digging into player profiles. Putting is volatile as hell, and I am never going to build an entire model around somebody making fifteen footers, but certain golfers simply see bentgrass better than others. Combine that with a long golf course, thick rough, demanding approaches, and the possibility of firm greens, and I expect Bellerive to play difficult. Maybe not full blown U.S. Open misery, but close enough that bogey avoidance, scrambling, and the ability to keep your fucking head when things go sideways are going to matter.
And speaking of keeping your head, Scottie Scheffler basically ripped everybody else’s head off in Memphis. We have spent most of this season talking about how ridiculously consistent Scottie has been while somehow not turning enough of those great weeks into wins. Apparently he was just saving some of the ass kicking for August. He finished 17 under at the FedEx St. Jude and won by eight fucking shots. Eight. Against a playoff field. That is not sneaking out a win because somebody three putted eighteen. That is reminding everybody that when Scottie finds his absolute top gear, the gap between him and everybody else can still look fucking enormous.
Now the question becomes how crazy this run can actually get. I already expect Scottie Scheffler to win the FedEx Cup in two weeks, and I am putting my money where my mouth is on that one. Could he actually sweep all three playoff events? I would not call that the likely outcome because winning professional golf tournaments is fucking hard, but I do not think it is some ridiculous fantasy either. Give me another top five this week and a win at East Lake and nobody should be surprised. Give me another win here and suddenly the sweep becomes one of the biggest stories in golf history.
Unfortunately, DraftKings apparently watched Scottie murder the field last week and decided the appropriate response was to kick him all the way up to $14,400 in a 50 player field. This is where I start arguing with whoever the hell builds these salaries again. I understand making Scottie difficult to roster. I understand forcing decisions. I do not need him sitting at $10,000 so everybody can jam him in and move on with their lives. But there is a point where pricing a golfer this aggressively actually starts reducing the number of viable lineup constructions instead of making the slate more interesting. There are only so many combinations when we are choosing six golfers from 50 fucking players. My sweet spot would be something closer to $12,900. Make me sacrifice something. Do not make me feel like I need to sell a kidney to roster the guy.
Then there is Rory McIlroy, and I genuinely do not know what the hell to do with him yet. Rory showed up in Memphis after nearly a month away, admitted he had barely practiced, and proceeded to look completely fucking lost. He finished 66th at eight over while playing the first two rounds alongside Scottie, which somehow made the contrast look even worse. Scottie looked like a machine. Rory looked like somebody who accidentally wandered onto the first tee because he thought there was a Guinness tent behind it. Now DraftKings gives us Rory at $11,400 as if none of that ever happened. Could he bounce back and win? Absolutely. He is Rory fucking McIlroy. Could I also spend $11,400 on a guy who shows up Thursday still searching for his golf swing? Apparently that is on the menu too. And that is exactly the kind of decision that makes this slate interesting.
Metrics That Matter
Tee to Green is getting by far the heaviest weight in my research this week. When Bellerive hosted the PGA Championship in 2018, the golfers who finished near the top of the leaderboard were overwhelmingly strong tee to green performers, and that makes perfect sense when you look at what this golf course is asking players to do. I want golfers who can consistently put the ball in position off the tee, control their approaches, and create legitimate birdie opportunities instead of constantly trying to manufacture something out of trouble. On a difficult golf course, great tee to green play also takes pressure off every other part of the game because you are simply giving yourself more chances to make putts for birdie and easier putts for par. Nobody is going to hit every shot perfectly this week, but the golfers consistently gaining strokes before they ever reach the green are going to have a massive advantage. If there is one metric that drives almost everything I do with this player pool, this is fucking it.
Bentgrass Putting is the secondary metric I am putting the most emphasis on because Bellerive’s greens give us another way to separate golfers who may look similar statistically. I am not simply looking for whoever has gained the most strokes putting recently because putting can be incredibly volatile from tournament to tournament. I want to know how golfers perform specifically on bentgrass compared with the field, but I also want to compare their bentgrass numbers with their own performance on other surfaces. Bentgrass generally produces a smoother, finer putting surface with less grain influence than something like Bermuda, and some players simply appear more comfortable reading the speed and break on it. That does not mean a bad putter suddenly becomes Ben Crenshaw because we put him on bentgrass, but meaningful surface splits can absolutely help break ties between otherwise similar golfers. Tee to green gets them the opportunities, and then I want players who are comfortable enough on these greens to actually fucking convert them.
Scrambling becomes increasingly important because nobody in this field is going to hit every green at Bellerive. When the approach game does fail, I want golfers who can turn a missed green into a boring par instead of allowing one bad shot to become a double bogey and destroy an otherwise good round. Getting up and down consistently is especially valuable on a course where I expect scoring to be difficult enough that par is going to be a perfectly acceptable result on plenty of holes. This is also where course management starts becoming part of the equation because the best difficult course players understand when they can attack and when they simply need to get the fuck out of a hole without doing any additional damage. Scrambling is not going to outweigh tee to green for me, but it becomes a very useful secondary filter when I am deciding between golfers with similar ball striking profiles. Give me the guy who can survive his misses.
Bogey Avoidance ties directly into scrambling and the overall difficulty I expect from Bellerive. I am not expecting some ridiculous birdie fest where everyone has to shoot six or seven under every day just to keep pace, and somewhere in the teens feels like a reasonable winning range unless somebody completely loses their fucking mind and goes nuclear. That changes the value of par because there are going to be holes where walking away with a four instead of forcing something and making six is a win. I want golfers who understand difficult golf courses, accept that they are going to miss shots, and do not completely melt down when the perfect opportunity disappears. The players who keep doubles off the card and limit bogey streaks are going to stay within striking distance while other golfers slowly eliminate themselves. Put all of this together and the profile becomes pretty simple: gain strokes tee to green, be comfortable putting on bentgrass, and when you inevitably get punched in the mouth, find a way to fucking survive.
The Scottie Scheffler Conundrum
For this exercise, I removed three golfers from my player pool completely: Matt McCarty, Sahith Theegala, and Akshay Bhatia. These are not necessarily the only three golfers anyone should eliminate, and that is not really the point. I identified three cheap golfers who, based on current form, course fit, and overall upside, I simply do not believe have a realistic chance of producing the kind of finish I need to win a large field GPP. You could make the same decision with a different combination of golfers in this range. What matters is understanding what happens to the lineup pool once a few of these cheap salary savers are no longer available. That is where the Scottie Scheffler problem becomes fucking incredible.
Starting With Scottie Scheffler at $14,400
| Second Golfer | Salary | Valid Lineups |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $11,400 | 0 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,900 | 8 |
| Sam Burns | $10,400 | 144 |
| Xander Schauffele | $9,900 | 756 |
| Ludvig Aberg | $9,700 | 1,222 |
| Cameron Young | $9,400 | 2,207 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $9,300 | 2,614 |
| Si Woo Kim | $9,100 | 3,558 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,000 | 4,100 |
| Chris Gotterup | $8,900 | 4,685 |
| Viktor Hovland | $8,800 | 5,323 |
| Wyndham Clark | $8,700 | 6,010 |
| Collin Morikawa | $8,600 | 6,751 |
Take a good look at that chart because the numbers are fucking ridiculous. Pair Scottie with Rory and there are zero legal constructions under these rules. Pair him with Tommy Fleetwood and there are eight. Not eight thousand. Eight fucking lineups. Even dropping down to Sam Burns only gives us 144 possible constructions, while Scottie with Xander produces 756. We really do not begin opening up the construction tree until the second golfer gets into the lower $9,000 range, and even there we are dealing with a remarkably small universe of possible lineups.
Now change only one thing. Instead of beginning every lineup with Scottie at $14,400, start with Sam Burns at $10,400. Keep the exact same three golfers removed from the player pool and apply the exact same $50,000 salary cap. The difference in lineup flexibility is massive.
Starting With Sam Burns at $10,400
| Second Golfer | Salary | Valid Lineups |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $14,400 | 144 |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,400 | 20,702 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,900 | 29,383 |
| Xander Schauffele | $9,900 | 49,655 |
| Ludvig Aberg | $9,700 | 53,744 |
| Cameron Young | $9,400 | 59,810 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $9,300 | 61,789 |
| Si Woo Kim | $9,100 | 65,678 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,000 | 67,595 |
| Chris Gotterup | $8,900 | 69,493 |
| Viktor Hovland | $8,800 | 71,376 |
| Wyndham Clark | $8,700 | 73,235 |
| Collin Morikawa | $8,600 | 75,075 |
That is the Scottie Scheffler conundrum. This has absolutely nothing to do with whether I think Scottie can win the BMW Championship. Of course he fucking can. He is the most likely golfer in this field to win the tournament by far. The DraftKings question is completely different. Does Scottie score enough points at $14,400 to overcome everything his salary forces me to sacrifice with the other five positions?
Look at the difference with Tommy Fleetwood. Scottie plus Tommy gives us 8 possible lineups after removing those three cheap golfers, while Burns plus Tommy gives us 29,383. Scottie plus Xander gives us 756, while Burns plus Xander gives us 49,655. Even when we get all the way down to Morikawa, Scottie plus Morikawa produces only 6,751 possible constructions compared with 75,075 when Burns is the starting point. DraftKings has not simply made Scottie expensive. They have made him lineup defining, and once you decide that a few cheap golfers are not playable, the rest of the roster can very quickly start getting forced into place.
That is what bothers me about this pricing. If I fade Scottie, I am not simply replacing Scottie with one other golfer and hoping that golfer outscores him. I am buying an entirely different lineup structure. I can potentially fit two or three golfers from this loaded upper middle tier, leave money on the table, avoid questionable punts, and create exponentially more ways to separate from the field. Scottie could absolutely win this tournament again and still not be required in the optimal DraftKings lineup. That is the decision we actually have to make. Something needs to be done about this before next season. Maybe they will hire me on as a consultant? LOL
Lineup Construction Philosophy
This week, and even more importantly next week when the field shrinks again, leaving salary on the table is going to matter. Everybody is going to want to stuff as many recognizable names as possible into these lineups, but let’s be honest, every golfer in this field made it here for a reason. There are a handful of guys I plan to eliminate completely, but most of this field is absolutely capable of producing a big week, which means differentiation becomes just as important as identifying good plays. The chart above shows exactly how dramatically the available lineup combinations change depending on where you start, and those numbers already account for the actual DraftKings salaries. My biggest construction decision is whether to start at the very top and get forced toward the bottom, or skip Scottie and try to stuff three or even four really fucking good golfers into the same lineup. I will build both ways, but I am going to be very conscious of ownership, salary left on the table, and avoiding constructions that thousands of other people can arrive at just as easily.
Elite Tier
Scottie Scheffler – $14,400 – Underweight
We all know what Scottie Scheffler can do, and after what he just did in Memphis there is absolutely no argument against him from a golf standpoint. He is the best player in the field, his tee to green game fits exactly what I am looking for at Bellerive, and another win would surprise absolutely nobody. The problem is entirely DFS related because $14,400 creates an enormous opportunity cost, especially in a field of only 50 golfers. As the chart above demonstrates, once you pair Scottie with another expensive golfer and eliminate only a few cheap players you do not trust, the number of viable constructions collapses ridiculously fast. I will absolutely have Scottie exposure because fading him completely when he is capable of burying the field again is not something I want to do, but I have no intention of chasing what should be substantial ownership at this salary. I would much rather be underweight and use a significant portion of my portfolio to attack the loaded tiers underneath him, where I can create far more lineup combinations without being forced into golfers I never wanted to play in the first fucking place.
Rory McIlroy – $11,400 – Underweight
What the fuck do we do with Rory McIlroy after what we watched last week? Rory openly admitted he barely practiced during his month away, then went out and finished eight over while getting completely embarrassed playing alongside Scottie Scheffler. This is still Rory, and if he decides to lock the fuck in, he can absolutely turn around and contend immediately, but DraftKings did us no favors by keeping him all the way up at $11,400. I am seeing ownership projections around 20%, although my guess is he ultimately lands somewhere in the upper teens because this slate is absolutely loaded from roughly $8,500 through $10,900 and there are so many easier ways to build. That makes Rory somewhat interesting as a leverage play, but not interesting enough for me to ignore the price, the recent form, and the questions about just how motivated he is right now. I will have exposure because the upside is obviously massive, but I expect to finish underweight on Rory and make him prove that last week was nothing more than an extremely expensive fucking tune up.
Tommy Fleetwood – $10,900 – Overweight
Tommy Fleetwood comes into this week with back to back top 10 finishes and looks like another golfer who actually used the time off after the Open to stay sharp. His tee to green game is exactly what I want at Bellerive because he consistently puts himself in position to generate birdie chances without having to rely on the putter to save him all day. The putter is usually solid and has shown real upside when it gets hot, including gaining more than five strokes at the Open. He also profiles well on bentgrass, which gives me another reason to trust the fit here. Fleetwood has historically played well in this event regardless of venue, and at $10,900 I like him as a starting point for a lot of builds that avoid the extreme salary pressure Scottie creates. Give me plenty of Tommy Fleetwood, and I will be overweight.
Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,300 – Overweight
Matt Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite leverage spots on the slate because I think the field is going to overlook just how strong his form has been. He has three top five finishes in his last six starts, and while he also took a month off, he actually looked like somebody who practiced before showing up in Memphis. The tee to green numbers were not spectacular at the St. Jude, but his approach play improved as the tournament went along, and I am willing to attribute some of the early struggles to legitimate competitive rust. We have also seen Fitzpatrick respond immediately after poor tee to green weeks before, including huge bounce backs earlier this season, and I think Bellerive is a course that fits his complete game extremely well. With ownership looking somewhere in the mid teens, this is exactly the type of golfer I want to attack before everybody remembers how fucking good he is. I will be overweight on Fitzpatrick at $9,300.
Si Woo Kim – $9,100 – Overweight
Si Woo Kim keeps playing phenomenal golf, keeps piling up high finishes, and people still seem reluctant to click his fucking name. He finished second last week and has quietly become one of the most consistent golfers on Tour outside of Scottie Scheffler, yet the names surrounding him should once again keep the ownership from getting completely out of control. His profile is exactly what I want at Bellerive because the iron game is elite, he is strong off the tee, and when the putter gives him anything at all he can contend with anybody in this field. The putter is always the variable with Si Woo, but he has historically looked much more comfortable on bentgrass, which gives me another reason to believe this setup works. At $9,100, with Hideki and other sexier names surrounding him, I see another strong leverage opportunity. Give me plenty of Si Woo Kim, and I will be overweight.
Middle Tier
Wyndham Clark – $8,700 – Overweight
Wyndham Clark is exactly the type of volatile golfer I am comfortable embracing this week because the ball striking upside is undeniable. We know what he can do tee to green, and if that part of the game shows up at Bellerive, he is going to give himself plenty of opportunities to contend. The entire question is the putter, which has been incredibly streaky this season, but he showed encouraging signs with it again last week. When Clark combines that tee to green game with even an average putting week, the ceiling gets really fucking high. At $8,700, I am willing to embrace the volatility and will be overweight on Wyndham Clark.
Russell Henley – $8,400 – Underweight
There is nothing wrong with Russell Henley as a golfer, but this is simply not the profile I want to attack heavily at Bellerive. The tee to green numbers have cooled over the last couple of weeks, I was not particularly impressed with the approach game last week, and the scrambling concerns become more important on a course where everybody is eventually going to miss greens. Bentgrass does not help the case either, as Henley has historically been much more comfortable on Bermuda and actually loses strokes to the field on bentgrass. He can absolutely play well, but too many pieces of the profile are pointing me elsewhere. I will be underweight on Henley at $8,400.
Jake Knapp – $8,200 – Overweight
I have said it before and I will say it again, Jake Knapp has superstar golf in him when everything gets dialed in. The injury completely derailed his season for a stretch, but we have already seen what he can do when the ball striking gets hot, and last week looked much more like the version of Knapp I want to roster. He is playing for a spot in the Tour Championship, he has legitimate top five upside, and $8,200 gives me plenty of flexibility around him. There is obviously volatility here, but that is not something I am afraid of in GPPs. Give me plenty of Jake Knapp, and I will be overweight.
Tom Kim – $8,100 – Overweight
Tom Kim is simply playing phenomenal golf right now. The tee to green game continues to give him opportunities, the putter has been cooperating lately, and he gained more than six strokes to the field at the Wyndham. I also like the surface fit because his putting numbers improve on bentgrass compared with the other primary surfaces, where he has historically lost strokes to the field. Everything I am looking for this week is starting to line up at a very attractive $8,100 price tag. I will be overweight on Tom Kim.
Robert MacIntyre – $7,700 – Underweight
I have almost no interest in Robert MacIntyre this week, even at a price that looks extremely tempting on the surface. He came into Memphis looking completely unprepared, started playing poorly, then withdrew, and whether that was injury related, rust, or too many fucking Guinnesses during the month off, none of it makes me want to click his name seven days later. He has certainly shown strong golf overseas and in a few spots here in the United States, but I do not love the overall course fit and I am not convinced one week is enough to fix what we saw in Memphis. There are simply too many golfers around this price range that I trust more. I will have very little exposure to MacIntyre and will be significantly underweight.
Michael Thorbjornsen – $7,500 – Overweight
Michael Thorbjornsen gives me exactly the kind of volatility I am willing to embrace at $7,500. He hits a ton of greens, can put up ridiculous tee to green numbers when the game is clicking, and we already watched him win on bentgrass earlier this season at the Rocket. The floor can disappear quickly, so a bottom 10 finish would not shock me, but neither would seeing him legitimately contend for this tournament. That kind of ceiling is exactly what I want in this range, especially with projected ownership sitting around 10 to 12 percent. I am likely to push into the upper teens and will be overweight on Thorbjornsen.
Value Tier
Rickie Fowler – $7,400 – Overweight
Rickie Fowler is playing fantastic golf right now, and one of the things that really stands out for Bellerive is how comfortable he has historically been putting on bentgrass. The approach game is there, and if he can clean up the off the tee performance just a little from last week, I think those overall tee to green numbers can jump quickly. Give Rickie enough opportunities with the irons and let that putter start doing some talking, and there is legitimate upside at this price. At $7,400, I want plenty of Rickie Fowler and will be overweight.
Adam Scott – $7,100 – With the Field
Adam Scott interests me because this is the type of championship golf environment where his experience and overall game can matter. He has played well over the last couple of weeks, the putter has been excellent, and the biggest question is whether we get one of his good iron weeks. We saw the tee to green ceiling at the Open Championship, and if something similar shows up here, I absolutely believe he can play himself into contention. The scrambling concerns keep me from getting too aggressive, but there is enough here for me to have meaningful exposure. I will be with the field on Adam Scott.
Sungjae Im – $7,000 – DFS Outsider Dart Play
I think people could dismiss Sungjae Im too quickly because this does not immediately scream perfect course fit, but the underlying game is starting to look much better. The irons have been good, the putter has shown life, and even without a great off the tee performance last week he was still able to put together a strong tournament. I am not necessarily betting on win equity, but at $7,000 I do not need him to win. Give me something around a top 12 to top 15 and suddenly Sungjae can become a very important final piece of an optimal lineup. DFS Outsider Dart Play.
Alex Noren – $6,900 – Overweight / Core Piece
Alex Noren might be my favorite play anywhere below $7,000. He has three straight top 18 finishes, played well at the Open Championship, and then finished T3 last week while gaining nearly seven strokes tee to green. He has also historically played well around this time of year and has never been afraid of difficult golf courses, which checks another box for Bellerive. When a golfer is this cheap and the game is this dialed in, I am not trying to predict when the heater ends. I am fucking riding it. Noren will be one of my biggest core pieces in this range.
Justin Rose – $6,800 – Overweight
This feels like a Justin Rose type of tournament. He is volatile enough to finish near the bottom, but we have also seen him produce enormous tee to green performances on difficult golf courses, including at Augusta, Torrey Pines, and Muirfield Village. The irons appear to be coming back around, the putter has looked good, and $6,800 feels too cheap for the ceiling he still possesses. There is risk here, but we are trying to win tournaments, not eliminate every uncomfortable decision. I will be overweight on Rose.
Alex Fitzpatrick – $6,500 – DFS Outsider Dart Play
With Alex Fitzpatrick, it really comes down to the putter. If the ball striking remains solid and the move to bentgrass allows him to simply putt at an acceptable level, he can absolutely outperform this salary. I do not need to go crazy with the exposure, but the path is there. DFS Outsider Dart Play.
Kristoffer Reitan – $6,500 – DFS Outsider Dart Play
Kristoffer Reitan did not play well in Memphis, but I am willing to consider some rust after the extended break following Royal Birkdale. He is an excellent bentgrass putter, and at $6,500 that gives me a very simple path to upside if the tee to green game rebounds. A top 15 type finish at this salary could make him a legitimate final piece of the puzzle. DFS Outsider Dart Play.
J.T. Poston – $6,400 – DFS Outsider Dart Play
J.T. Poston is starting to become interesting again at $6,400. The off the tee game was not great last time out, but the irons were strong, the putter was solid, and the overall form appears to be trending back in the right direction. If we can get something close to green across the board this week, there is more than enough upside for him to outperform this salary. I am not going nuts, but he is absolutely in my player pool. DFS Outsider Dart Play.
Final Thoughts
We are down from 70 golfers last week to 50 this week, and that changes everything from a DFS construction standpoint. There are fewer combinations, ownership is going to condense, and the easiest thing in the world is going to be building the same fucking lineup as everybody else. Scottie Scheffler is obviously the biggest decision on the slate because he can absolutely bury this field again, but at $14,400 he also forces you into a completely different construction path. That is why I think leaving salary on the table, avoiding chalk on top of chalk on top of chalk, and being willing to build lineups that look a little uncomfortable are going to matter more than usual. We are not trying to build the safest lineup. We are trying to build the lineup that can finish first.
The data this week has been fascinating because it really shows how quickly the possible lineup pool collapses once you make a few firm decisions. Eliminate a handful of golfers you do not believe in, lock in one or two core pieces, leave $300, $500, or even more on the table, and suddenly millions of theoretical combinations become a much smaller and much more manageable universe. That does not mean we are going to magically solve golf, because some $6,200 meatball can still go out and finish T8 and fuck everything up. It does mean we can stick to a process, make intentional decisions, and stop letting DraftKings pricing dictate every single fucking lineup we build. And yes, fuck you to the DraftKings pricing people for making Scottie $14,400 in a 50 man field. I still think it is ridiculous.
We have two weeks of golf left, so let’s enjoy the heavyweight fight, trust the research, embrace some volatility, and take our shots. There are enough great golfers in this field that we do not need to force anything, and there are enough different ways to construct these lineups that we can still find leverage if we are willing to look for it. Stick to the process, do not be afraid to leave money unused, and do not confuse having the best names with having the best tournament lineup. Let’s go take down a fucking GPP before this season is over.
It only takes one
