The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Watkins Glen International this weekend for what should be one of the most exciting races of the entire season. If the Xfinity Series race was any indication of what we are about to witness, buckle the hell up, because this place produces absolute chaos when drivers start pushing the limits late in a race.
The finish involving Connor Zilisch and Jesse Love was flat out insane. Zilisch was a good amount behind late in the race and absolutely started flying through the field on fresh tires, attacking every braking zone like a maniac trying to make up ground any way possible. Then came the mistake. Zilisch drove through the grass with just a few laps remaining and completely destroyed the splitter. The thing was literally jammed underneath the tire, the car could barely turn, and somehow it still did not matter.
Instead of backing down, Zilisch simply adjusted the way he drove the car and started throwing the thing into corners even harder. The late braking was ridiculous. The aggression was ridiculous. Somehow he kept tracking down Love corner after corner despite the damage, and on the final lap entering the last turn, Love pushed a little too hard and slightly overshot the corner. That tiny mistake was all Zilisch needed as he slipped underneath him and stole the victory in one of the wildest finishes we have seen all year.
That race perfectly captures what makes Watkins Glen International such a badass track because this is the fastest road course NASCAR has to offer. Drivers are absolutely flying through the esses before immediately standing on the brakes entering heavy passing zones where one tiny mistake can completely ruin your entire day. The famous bus stop chicane has destroyed plenty of cars over the years, while the carousel rewards drivers willing to stay aggressive without completely losing control of the car. At The Glen, everything happens fast, and drivers are constantly balancing aggression with survival.
The history of this place is legendary. Watkins Glen International originally opened in 1956 and quickly became one of the premier road racing facilities in America. NASCAR has been racing here for decades, and some of the biggest names in the sport have conquered this track over the years. Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch currently share the record for the most Cup Series wins at The Glen with five victories each, which tells you exactly the type of elite talent it takes to consistently dominate this place.
Last August, Shane Van Gisbergen added his name to the list of winners at The Glen after taking home the victory in dominant fashion. Now he returns once again as one of the biggest threats in the field, and rightfully so, but you are going to have to pay a premium price tag at $13,500, which is a full $2,000 more than the next closest competitor, Connor Zilisch, sitting at $11,500. Between Van Gisbergen and Zilisch, the road course talent in this race is absolutely loaded, and both drivers are going to be difficult to tame this weekend if they unload with speed.
But Watkins Glen does not always follow the expected script because we have seen drivers like Chris Buescher win here recently, and we have also seen William Byron consistently show strong speed at this track. Strategy changes everything at road courses. One caution can flip the field upside down, one missed braking zone can end a dominant day instantly, and one aggressive move entering a corner can completely alter the outcome of the race. That unpredictability is exactly what makes this race so damn fun for both fans and DFS players alike. So let’s break it down!
| Driver | Salary | Start | Avg Finish | Laps Led | DNFs | Driver Rating | Stage Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Van Gisbergen | $13,500 | 1st | 1.5 | 39 | 0 | 133.8 | 11 |
| Connor Zilisch | $11,500 | 5th | N/A | N/A | 0 | N/A | 0 |
| Tyler Reddick | $10,500 | 15th | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 72.3 | 5 |
| Christopher Bell | $10,000 | 8th | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 97.1 | 14 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,700 | 27th | 25.7 | 0 | 0 | 67.9 | 13 |
| William Byron | $9,500 | 13th | 13.0 | 66 | 0 | 109.4 | 20 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,000 | 23rd | 25.7 | 0 | 0 | 65.8 | 15 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,800 | 14th | 3.7 | 24 | 0 | 103.2 | 10 |
| Chase Briscoe | $8,600 | 9th | 15.3 | 6 | 0 | 86.2 | 8 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $8,500 | 12th | 17.0 | 2 | 1 | 73.5 | 17 |
| Ty Gibbs | $8,300 | 10th | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | 80.8 | 20 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,200 | 7th | 17.7 | 35 | 1 | 77.4 | 14 |
| Michael McDowell | $8,000 | 2nd | 20.7 | 24 | 1 | 93.8 | 10 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,800 | 28th | 20.3 | 1 | 0 | 67.5 | 19 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,700 | 16th | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 72.0 | 7 |
| Ross Chastain | $7,600 | 4th | 10.7 | 51 | 0 | 101.7 | 10 |
| Kyle Busch | $7,500 | 21st | 22.0 | 2 | 0 | 65.1 | 5 |
| Carson Hocevar | $7,400 | 11th | 10.5 | 1 | 0 | 85.6 | 0 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,200 | 3rd | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 76.0 | 6 |
| Denny Hamlin | $7,000 | 20th | 16.7 | 3 | 0 | 67.8 | 23 |
| Joey Logano | $6,900 | 6th | 13.0 | 6 | 0 | 83.1 | 8 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,700 | 30th | 13.0 | 1 | 0 | 72.9 | 1 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,500 | 18th | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 75.8 | 5 |
| Todd Gilliland | $6,300 | 22nd | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 53.8 | 0 |
| Zane Smith | $6,200 | 33rd | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 74.9 | 0 |
| Brad Keselowski | $6,100 | 26th | 24.0 | 5 | 0 | 66.0 | 6 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | $6,000 | 17th | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 57.3 | 6 |
| Noah Gragson | $5,900 | 35th | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 69.0 | 0 |
| Austin Dillon | $5,800 | 26th | 24.7 | 0 | 0 | 58.4 | 1 |
| Erik Jones | $5,600 | 24th | 24.7 | 0 | 0 | 54.6 | 2 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,500 | 31st | 32.0 | 0 | 0 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,300 | 29th | 24.3 | 0 | 1 | 48.1 | 7 |
| Riley Herbst | $5,200 | 32nd | 24.0 | 0 | 0 | 53.1 | 5 |
| Cole Custer | $5,100 | 19th | 31.0 | 0 | 0 | 32.2 | 2 |
| Josh Berry | $5,000 | 34th | 30.0 | 0 | 0 | 56.0 | 0 |
| Cody Ware | $4,800 | 36th | 29.0 | 0 | 0 | 37.0 | 1 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,600 | 37th | 32.0 | 0 | 0 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Catherine Legge | $4,500 | 38th | 36.0 | 0 | 0 | 29.7 | 0 |
TOTAL POINTS
| Driver | Salary | Start Pts | Avg Finish Pts | Laps Led Pts | Driver Rating Pts | Stage Pts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Byron | $9,500 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | $13,500 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,800 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| Ross Chastain | $7,600 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,200 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| Joey Logano | $6,900 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| Chase Briscoe | $8,600 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| Denny Hamlin | $7,000 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $8,500 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| Christopher Bell | $10,000 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| Michael McDowell | $8,000 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,800 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| Brad Keselowski | $6,100 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| Ty Gibbs | $8,300 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Carson Hocevar | $7,400 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,700 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,700 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| Zane Smith | $6,200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,500 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,000 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,700 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| Kyle Busch | $7,500 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| Noah Gragson | $5,900 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| Tyler Reddick | $10,500 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,200 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| Riley Herbst | $5,200 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,300 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| Austin Dillon | $5,800 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| Erik Jones | $5,600 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| Cody Ware | $4,800 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| Todd Gilliland | $6,300 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | $6,000 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| Josh Berry | $5,000 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Cole Custer | $5,100 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,500 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,600 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Catherine Legge | $4,500 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Connor Zilisch | $11,500 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Top Tier Drivers
Shane Van Gisbergen $13,500
This is the road course kingpin. The price tag is massive, but for good reason. If SVG gets clean air and controls this race, he can absolutely bury the field. You are going to need a lot of exposure because fading him entirely at a place like Watkins Glen International feels extremely dangerous.
William Byron $9,500
Checks every single box this weekend. Great history at The Glen, excellent data across the board, strong stage point production, and legitimate dominator upside. Honestly, he might be one of the best overall point per dollar plays on the slate despite being priced near the top.
Connor Zilisch $11,500
We already know what this kid can do on road courses. The question is whether the car is going to be strong enough in the Cup Series race to truly contend for the win against these elite veterans. I will not have as much exposure as I will to Byron or SVG, but I absolutely want some shares because the talent is undeniable.
Ryan Blaney $8,200
Blaney just feels too solid to ignore at this price point. Good overall road course ability, strong upside if strategy falls correctly, and he fits roster construction extremely well alongside the expensive dominator candidates.
Christopher Bell $10,000
Bell deserves to be in this upper tier despite the lack of laps led data. The road course talent is there, the stage point production is there, and he always feels capable of finding himself in contention late in these races.
Chris Buescher $8,800
Probably one of my favorite price points on the entire slate. Former winner here, incredible average finish data, and one of the cleanest road course racers in the field. Buescher feels like a driver you are going to want mixed heavily into builds this weekend.
Mid Tier Drivers
Ross Chastain $7,600
Joey Logano $6,900
Chase Briscoe $8,600
Denny Hamlin $7,000
A.J. Allmendinger $8,500
Michael McDowell $8,000
Alex Bowman $7,800
Ty Gibbs $8,300
Carson Hocevar $7,400
Ryan Preece $6,700
This middle tier honestly feels loaded this weekend. Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin both feel way too cheap for their upside. A.J. Allmendinger is naturally going to pull ownership because people love clicking his name at road courses, but the upside is still there. Michael McDowell worries me a little starting so close to the front, yet he absolutely could end up in the optimal lineup if he maintains track position all day.
Carson Hocevar feels like a dark horse play because he has simply been racing extremely well lately, and at $7,400, the upside is definitely there. Ryan Preece at $6,700 also stands out as one of the better value options on the board with the starting position bonus helping his overall ceiling.
Value Tier Drivers
Brad Keselowski $6,100
Zane Smith $6,200
Chase Elliott $9,700
Bubba Wallace $6,500
Kyle Larson $9,000
Daniel Suarez $7,700
Noah Gragson $5,900
Austin Cindric $7,200
Riley Herbst $5,200
Todd Gilliland $6,300
Erik Jones $5,600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $5,300
This is where lineup construction starts getting really interesting. Zane Smith stands out immediately because the starting position bonus gives him enormous DFS upside if he simply survives and moves forward throughout the race. Noah Gragson also feels like one of the better value plays on the slate at under $6,000.
I know it sounds weird calling Chase Elliott a value play at $9,700, but the reality is he is difficult to fit naturally into builds, which could lower ownership a bit despite the obvious place differential upside starting 27th. I will definitely have some exposure, just probably not a massive amount.
Kyle Larson is another driver I will sprinkle into builds, but probably not somebody I go overweight on this weekend. Bubba Wallace and Daniel Suarez both bring solid value depending on roster construction, while Riley Herbst honestly feels like one of the stronger cheap salary dart plays if you are trying to jam multiple studs into the same lineup.
At the end of the day, this slate really feels like a mix and match type of weekend where exposure management is going to matter more than trying to perfectly predict one driver. Outside of the obvious elite plays like William Byron and Shane Van Gisbergen, the real edge may come from correctly balancing the mid tier and value plays that allow those expensive dominators to fit together naturally.
At the end of the day, this slate really feels like a mix and match type of weekend where exposure management is going to matter more than trying to perfectly predict one driver. Outside of the obvious elite plays like William Byron and Shane Van Gisbergen, the real edge may come from correctly balancing the mid tier and value plays that allow those expensive dominators to fit together naturally. Also, leaving a little bit of money on the table is always nice at a place like Watkins Glen International, and I definitely think you are able to do so this weekend while still building extremely competitive lineups.
Frankie’s Fade Of The Week
Hey meatballs, Frankie’s fade of the week is Michael McDowell. Now before you start throwing mozzarella sticks at the screen, let me explain myself here. I know the guy showed speed in practice. I know he qualified second. I know everybody is gonna start talking themselves into the road course narrative. But this feels like one of those setups where everything looks beautiful right before it turns into a complete disaster.
First off, this is Watkins Glen International. Starting near the front sounds great until you realize one tiny mistake in Turn 1 and suddenly your whole day gets sent straight through the grass faster than a shopping cart with no brakes. And at this price, with this starting position, there just is not a lot of room for error.
Second off, every time I hear the name McDowell, I keep thinking about the movie Coming To America. You know, McDowell’s. The fake McDonald’s. “They got the golden arches, we got the golden arcs.” Same thing here. Everybody thinks they are getting the premium road course play, but I think they might be getting the discount version this weekend, capisce?
And look, maybe Michael proves me wrong. Maybe he stays out front all day and starts making assistant manager money. Maybe next week he gets promoted off fry station and the big bucks start rolling in. But for me personally, I just think there are too many stronger plays around him with better place differential upside and less risk attached.
Starting second at a place this chaotic just feels dangerous, and if ownership starts climbing because people see “road course specialist,” I will gladly take my chances fading the meatball chalk this weekend. Capisce?
Final Thoughts
This slate feels wide open, and honestly, that is exactly the type of race where I want to attack large field tournaments. There are multiple viable dominator combinations, strong value throughout the field, and enough chaos potential at Watkins Glen International where one late caution or one missed braking zone can completely flip the optimal lineup upside down. Staying concentrated around your strongest driver pool while mixing and matching lineup combinations feels like the best approach this weekend.
Do not be afraid to leave a little salary on the table, embrace some uncomfortable roster combinations, and trust the builds that make sense to you instead of blindly following projected ownership. Road course racing is chaotic by nature, and sometimes the difference between a min cash lineup and a tournament takedown is simply being willing to build differently when everybody else starts jamming the same combinations together.
Let’s go get it. Let’s take down a fucking GPP.
It only takes one.
