Par 72
Approximately 7350 yards
Ponte Vedra Beach Florida
The Players Championship returns to the legendary TPC Sawgrass, one of the most recognizable and volatile venues in professional golf. Designed by Pete Dye, the course was built to challenge every part of a player’s game and reward precision over pure power. The layout features four par three holes, ten demanding par four holes, and four scoring par five holes. Water hazards influence shots throughout most of the property and force players to make strategic decisions on nearly every swing. Strong approach play, solid scrambling, and the ability to convert mid range putts are often the difference between contenders and the rest of the field.
The defending champion entering this week is Rory McIlroy, who captured the 2025 Players Championship at twelve under par after a dramatic finish. A three hole (16to18) playoff with JJ Spaun was to decide the champion. Rory took the lead after one hole with a nice birdie on 16. JJ took his tee shot into the drink on 17 to essentially give the tournament to Rory. Just goes to show you what the pressure of 17 can do!
The closing stretch at TPC Sawgrass is one of the most famous sequences in the sport. The par five sixteenth offers a final scoring opportunity before the pressure truly begins. Players then step to the tee at the iconic seventeenth hole, the island green. At only around one hundred thirty five yards it appears simple on paper, yet it remains one of the most intimidating shots in golf. With water completely surrounding the green and thousands of fans packed around the hole, even the best players in the world can feel the tension.
The tournament concludes with the brutal par four eighteenth. Water runs the entire length of the left side of the hole from tee to green, forcing players to find a narrow landing area off the tee before attacking a demanding approach shot into a guarded green. It creates one of the most volatile finishes in golf where a single mistake can instantly derail a championship bid.
The volatility of TPC Sawgrass has destroyed championship hopes many times, especially on the closing holes. One of the most memorable examples came during the 2013 tournament when Sergio Garcia arrived at the seventeenth hole tied for the lead in a dramatic battle with his rival Tiger Woods. With the pressure at its highest, Sergio Garcia hit his tee shot into the water on the island green and eventually carded a seven. The damage did not stop there. He followed it with a six on the eighteenth hole, a double bogey that completely knocked him out of contention and dropped him all the way to eighth place. Moments like that are exactly why the finishing stretch at TPC Sawgrass has a reputation for chaos where a single swing can erase four days of great golf.
Metrics That Matter
Success at TPC Sawgrass usually comes down to precision and control rather than pure distance. The players who consistently contend here tend to dominate in several specific statistical areas that match the demands of the course.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
This stat captures total ball striking from the tee through the approach shot and is one of the clearest indicators of success at TPC Sawgrass. With water hazards influencing shots across much of the course, players who consistently control the golf ball and keep themselves out of trouble gain a major advantage over the field.
Approach Play and Key Iron Distances
Iron play is another critical factor this week. Two distance ranges appear frequently at TPC Sawgrass. Shots from one hundred twenty five to one hundred fifty yards show up often when players lay up on par fives or position themselves carefully off the tee. Longer approach shots in the two hundred twenty five to two hundred fifty yard range also appear regularly on some of the longer par fours. Players who excel from these ranges tend to create more birdie opportunities.
Scrambling
Even the best ball strikers will miss greens here. The ability to recover around the greens and save par becomes extremely important. Strong scramblers can limit damage when approach shots miss their targets and keep momentum throughout the round.
Putting From Ten to Fifteen Feet
Many approach shots at TPC Sawgrass leave players with mid range birdie chances rather than short tap ins. That makes putting from ten to fifteen feet a key separator. Players who consistently convert those opportunities can climb the leaderboard quickly.
Par Five Scoring
The four par five holes provide the best scoring opportunities on the course. Contenders typically take advantage of these holes throughout the week. Players who consistently pick up birdies or occasional eagles on the par fives gain a significant advantage over the field.
Bogey Avoidance
Finally bogey avoidance is a major factor at TPC Sawgrass. With water hazards influencing so many holes mistakes can compound quickly. Players who remain patient and limit big numbers often find themselves in contention heading into the final stretch on Sunday.
DFS Strategy
Building lineups this week at TPC Sawgrass requires a careful balance between upside and stability. With a field of more than one hundred players and roughly half of them missing the cut, getting six golfers through the cut line is critical. The course itself is extremely volatile which means even strong players can make big numbers if they lose control for a few holes. Because of that lineup construction becomes just as important as identifying the right golfers.
My approach this week begins by narrowing the field down to a manageable player pool. Out of the full field there are roughly forty to forty five players who realistically fit the statistical profile for this course. The rest of the field becomes largely unplayable for my builds. Outside of that core group there may be a few single dart throws but the majority of my exposure will be concentrated on the players who fit the course metrics and current form.
With such a difficult course and a cut that eliminates nearly half the field getting six golfers to the weekend becomes extremely important. Balanced builds that allow multiple players to finish high on the leaderboard can often perform very well at TPC Sawgrass.
The Scottie Scheffler Conundrum
The biggest decision on this slate revolves around Scottie Scheffler. His salary sits far above the rest of the field which forces difficult choices in lineup construction. If you roster Scottie Scheffler you must make sacrifices elsewhere in the lineup. The question becomes how much exposure you want to commit to that approach.
One way to build is pairing Scottie Scheffler with another elite golfer such as Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, or Hideki Matsuyama. The downside is that doing so forces you to rely on several golfers in the six thousand range who may not consistently survive a demanding course like TPC Sawgrass.
Another approach is building around Scottie Scheffler with several golfers in the seven thousand range. That keeps the lineup slightly more stable but still requires strong performances from players who are not as reliable as the top tier.
Because of that pricing structure every lineup with Scottie Scheffler requires multiple things to go right. You need him to finish near the very top of the leaderboard and you need at least two or three lower priced players to outperform expectations on a very difficult course.
The alternative is a balanced build that avoids Scottie Scheffler entirely. This approach allows lineups to include several strong golfers in the seven thousand and eight thousand salary range who may all finish inside the top twenty. If the tournament produces a tight leaderboard and Scottie Scheffler does not dominate balanced builds could easily outperform lineups built around the highest priced player.
Personally I expect to land somewhere around twenty five percent exposure to Scottie Scheffler. That number will likely fall slightly under the projected ownership which I expect to land somewhere around thirty percent across the field. Taking a slightly underweight position still provides coverage if Scottie Scheffler wins while allowing more flexibility to build balanced lineups that could outperform if the slate breaks a different way.
Monitoring Rory McIlroy
The other key situation to monitor is Rory McIlroy. If he plays he immediately becomes one of the most important players on the slate due to his lower price relative to Scottie Scheffler. Because of the uncertainty surrounding his health after last week it makes sense to monitor news closely throughout the week and make adjustments once final confirmation becomes clear.
Even if Rory McIlroy is confirmed to play I do not plan on becoming overly exposed. My exposure will likely fall somewhere in the ten to fifteen percent range overall. If it turns out the issue was something minor such as an illness or a short term setback I may lean toward the higher end of that range or slightly above it. If the news suggests something more serious or lingering I will likely stay closer to the lower end of that exposure range.
If Rory McIlroy comes out strong that level of exposure gives enough coverage to benefit from it. If he struggles early or decides to withdraw which would essentially be the same as him not playing well for DFS purposes the limited exposure prevents it from completely sinking my builds.
Collin Morikawa 9800 overweight
Morikawa finished tenth here last year and also recorded a thirteenth place finish in 2023. Recent form has been excellent with multiple top ten finishes including a victory, and he continues to strike the ball extremely well. The putter has improved enough recently that it is no longer a major concern, making Collin Morikawa one of my favorite plays in the upper tier.
Xander Schauffele 9600 on par
Xander Schauffele remains one of the most reliable ball strikers on tour. His all around consistency and ability to gain strokes across every part of his game fits perfectly at TPC Sawgrass. With his steady profile and proven ability to contend here, I expect to match the field in terms of exposure.
Hideki Matsuyama 9500 underweight
Matsuyama has serious upside and has shown in previous years that he can absolutely be near the top of the leaderboard at TPC Sawgrass. His game can be a little inconsistent at times and he did miss the cut here last year which introduces some volatility. If you are building a large number of lineups it still makes sense to have exposure to Hideki Matsuyama, but there are a couple players around him that interest me slightly more so I will likely come in a bit under the field.
Si Woo Kim 9300 overweight
I have always had a soft spot for Si Woo Kim. His all around game fits very well at TPC Sawgrass, and when the putter cooperates he always seems to find himself near the leaderboard. With his ball striking and ability to gain strokes across multiple categories, I expect to be slightly overweight on Si Woo Kim this week.
Viktor Hovland 9100 on par
Viktor Hovland has had mixed results at TPC Sawgrass, but his recent play looked much improved and he appears to be trending in the right direction. When his ball striking is sharp he has the ability to climb leaderboards quickly. I will likely remain around the field on exposure.
Russell Henley 9000 underweight
Russell Henley is a very steady and accurate player who can certainly navigate TPC Sawgrass, but there are several golfers in this range that interest me slightly more this week. While I will still have some exposure because of his consistency, I expect to come in lighter than the field overall.
Ludvig Åberg 8700 on par
Ludvig Åberg cooled off slightly after an incredible start to the season but his tee to green profile still stands out. The power off the tee combined with strong iron play gives him real upside if everything clicks. I will likely stay close to the field on Ludvig Åberg.
Shane Lowry 8600 overweight
Lowry has one of the strongest course histories in the field at TPC Sawgrass. His elite approach game fits perfectly with this course and he has already posted several solid finishes this season. I feel very confident in his ability to contend here and will be overweight.
Daniel Berger 7800 on par
Berger has been very consistent at TPC Sawgrass over the years and is coming off a runner up finish which should give him plenty of confidence. Even though he let that lead slip away, his overall game looks sharp right now. I will stay around the field on Daniel Berger.
Jake Knapp 7600 overweight
Knapp is arguably playing the best golf of anyone in this range right now. He has four top ten finishes in a row followed by an eleventh place finish. He withdrew last week due to illness, which burned a lot of DFS lineups including mine, but in DFS you cannot hold grudges. I am going right back to the well.
Sepp Straka 7600 on par
Straka has played well at TPC Sawgrass before and enters this week in solid form. Nothing about his profile jumps off the page, but his all around game is very steady and fits this course well. If the putter cooperates he has the ability to finish near the top twenty.
J.J. Spaun 7400 underweight
Spaun finished second here last year, but his recent form has been extremely shaky. His ball striking has not looked sharp and the overall game just does not appear dialed in right now. I will have minimal exposure this week.
Ryan Gerard 7400 underweight
Gerard has not been playing particularly well over the last several tournaments. His ball striking has been inconsistent and the scrambling and putting have not been strong enough to compensate. I do not feel confident in his current form so I will be underweight.
Aaron Rye 7200 overweight
Rye profiles as an interesting play this week if the putter cooperates. His iron play can be very strong and if he keeps the driver in play this course could set up nicely for him. I believe he has a legitimate chance to finish inside the top twenty which would easily pay off this price.
Corey Conners 7100 overweight
Conners is a classic course horse at TPC Sawgrass. He has finished inside the top twenty six in four of the last five years here and his elite ball striking always gives him upside. If the putter behaves even slightly he could easily outperform this price again.
Sahith Theegala 7000 underweight
Theegala has one strong finish here but the other appearances have been extremely disappointing. His driving accuracy can become a serious issue at TPC Sawgrass, where missing in the wrong spots leads to big numbers. Even though he has been playing decent golf recently I will still be underweight.
Ryo Hisatsune 6900 underweight
Hisatsune has not played particularly well at TPC Sawgrass and his recent form has cooled off over the last couple weeks. Nothing about his profile stands out strongly enough to make me want heavy exposure here. I will keep exposure minimal.
Tom Hoge 6800 overweight
This is more of a gut feeling play than a model driven one. Hoge has missed two cuts in a row and does not grade out particularly well statistically this week. However he finished third here last year and third the year before that, and he always seems comfortable at TPC Sawgrass. With low ownership expected he becomes a very interesting leverage play.
Davis Thompson 6700 overweight
Thompson finished tenth here last year and is coming off a fourth place finish in his most recent start. He is very strong off the tee and consistently hits a lot of greens in regulation. If he has even an average putting week he could surprise people with another strong finish.
Michael Brennan 6600 overweight
Brennan is one of my favorite deep value plays this week. He is extremely long off the tee and grades out well in several tee to green metrics. He is projected to be around one percent owned which makes him a perfect tournament leverage play if he spikes.
Harry Hall 6500 underweight
Hall played well recently but this course simply does not fit his profile. He has missed the cut here the last two years and nothing about his skill set suggests that trend is likely to change. I will have minimal exposure.
Ricky Castillo 6200 underweight
Castillo will likely attract some attention after a win and a fifth place finish recently. However this is a much more demanding course and his approach play is not strong enough to consistently handle these greens. I will have only minimal exposure as a deep punt option.
Joel Dahmen 6100 underweight
Dahmen has struggled recently and his overall form just does not inspire confidence right now. At a course as demanding as TPC Sawgrass I do not see many paths for him to produce a strong finish. I will stay underweight.
A.J. Ewart 6000 overweight
Ewart is a minimum salary punt that I find very intriguing. He showed flashes of strong play recently and actually performed well for stretches at Pebble Beach earlier this season. His last few starts have been solid and he should carry almost no ownership, making him an interesting tournament dart.
Frankie’s Fade of the Week
Akshay Bhatia 7700 fade
Hey meatballs. Frankie the Fade here.
First things first. Frankie’s got nothing but respect for Akshay Bhatia. The kid wins last week, dedicates it to his niece who passed away, and you gotta respect that. Real classy stuff. Frankie wishes the kid nothing but the best.
But this week? This week is business.
You see, everybody and their mother is gonna be clicking that little button next to Akshay Bhatia’s name. Ownership is gonna be through the roof. And Frankie? Frankie doesn’t chase popularity contests.
Look, the kid is playing great golf right now. Ball striking looks good, confidence is high, and it would not shock Frankie one bit if Akshay Bhatia had another strong finish.
But when the whole field piles in on one guy, Frankie goes the other way.
So this week Frankie says congratulations on the win, kid… but Frankie’s tickets? Yeah, they ain’t got no Akshay Bhatia on them.
Too much chalk for Frankie. Capisce?
Final Thoughts
This slate requires a very thoughtful approach when building lineups. With a field this large and nearly half the players missing the cut, getting golfers safely through the cut line becomes extremely important. My general philosophy is to lock in at least four players that I feel very confident will make the weekend and contend for strong finishes. The remaining spots can then be used for higher upside plays that give your lineup the chance to separate from the field.
Naturally, as you move higher up the salary board the confidence level in players making the cut generally increases. That is where building a strong core becomes important. I will have exposure to most of the top players, but when you are building a large number of lineups the real question becomes how much exposure you want to each golfer.
Several players near the top of the board are expected to carry significant ownership this week. Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, and Ludvig Åberg are all likely to draw plenty of attention. I will still have exposure to many of these golfers because they clearly have the upside to win the tournament. The key is being careful not to stack too much chalk together in the same lineup.
That is where the lower salary ranges come into play. When I look at the golfers priced around the mid six thousand range and below, I see several players that could realistically spike a top twenty finish. As crazy as that might sound, that is exactly what tournament DFS often comes down to. Finding the right value player who pops at low ownership can unlock the lineup that wins a GPP.
Golf DFS is incredibly volatile, which is exactly why I enjoy playing larger sets of lineups at lower entry levels. My strategy revolves around ownership leverage and giving myself as many chances as possible to land on the right combination of players.
This tournament also brings together one of the strongest fields of the year. Established stars, hungry young players, and experienced veterans who know this course extremely well are all competing for one of the biggest titles in golf. Players like Jake Knapp, Akshay Bhatia, Jacob Bridgeman, and Cameron Young are part of the new wave of talent trying to make their mark.
All of that creates the perfect recipe for a chaotic and exciting tournament week.
Personally, I have already built a large portion of my lineups and will continue fine tuning exposure throughout the week. At the end of the day, it all comes down to finding that perfect combination. The Outsider way is embracing volatility, being thoughtful in lineup construction, avoiding excessive chalk stacking, and targeting players with true upside.
Good luck to everyone this week.
Remember, it only takes one.
Let’s take down a fucking GPP
